The Z Files: Second Half Top 350 Update

The important thing to keep in mind as you look at the aggregate list as well as the individual rankings is we're producing a rough draft list, as opposed to something more objective, driven strictly by numbers. Some of that is how we perceive players relative to the market, our level of risk aversion, our philosophy of floor versus ceiling and our sense of the current landscape and how we plan on using that to our best advantage.

Let's focus on the last point as the others are a rehash of draft strategy in general. Half a season is in the books and there are four very intriguing trends: runs, homers and strikeouts are up while steals are down. Below is a table comparing this season to the previous three. Stats from 2016 are current through the games of June 29. Data was then taken from a corresponding part of 2013-2015 and normalized so the games played are all equal.

One of the charms of this game is we all have different means of incorporating this into our draft plan, assuming we expect the trends to continue. Personally, I expect the disparity between homers and steals to widen. This summer is supposed to be unseasonably warm which should result in even more homers. This could cause teams to run even less as the old Earl Weaver ploy of waiting for the three-run homer could come back into vogue.

On paper, based on the above, steals should increase in value with respect to homers. Here's where the biggest difference between my spreadsheet generated values and my Top-350 rankings lies. If I were doing a draft right now for the second half, I'd look for one or maybe two hitters that steal a lot then really focus on all the counting stats, ignoring batting average (or on base percentage) completely. I'm greedy, I want to be near the top in both homers and steals and the only way to do that is sacrifice batting average. But here's the deal; batting average is so fickle that anything can happen, especially in half a season.

Let's say we played a first-half league and I drafted a squad that should do pretty well in average. The problem is Todd Frazier was my third baseman. All the assets I funneled towards a high average are wasted. In doing so, I likely forwent some counting stats points.

On the other hand, say you were drafting with your eye more on power and didn't care so much about average. You didn't punt it, but also didn't shy away from a low average, high counting stats type of player so you grabbed David Ortiz. Not only did you get the power, but he's hitting about 80 points higher than anticipated, likely yielding a few extra points in the batting average category.

The same arguments can be made for standard year-long leagues but with the full 162 games, the extreme scenarios aren't usually as extreme. Something of this nature is far more likely in a shorter 81-game sample.

The repercussion is players whose primary contribution is batting average are lower on my site Top 350 than my rest-of-season projections if you rank by dollar value. Similarly, I jumped productive but low average batters up several spots.

How to address pitching in a second half draft was already intriguing. Factor in Clayton Kershaw's back woes plus injury concerns surrounding Stephen Strasburg, Noah Syndergaard and Felix Hernandez along with performance questions from Jake Arrieta, Matt Harvey, Dallas Keuchel, David Price, Max Scherzer and Chris Sale and man, what a difference three months makes. Especially since strikeouts are up everywhere, my plan of attack would be to wait a little longer on pitching, except for Kershaw and Scherzer. No, I didn't forget Arrieta. Of course, that's taking a huge risk Kershaw misses only two starts but having witnessed first-hand how 16 Kershaw starts can impact a fantasy team, I'll risk getting just 13 starts of that caliber over the second half.

With that as a backdrop, here's a review of the more difficult decisions encountered when updating my second-half Top 350.

Who's Number 1?

Prior to his epidural and subsequent DL stint, Kerhsaw was going to occupy the catbird's seat. Now it's Jose Altuve edging out Mike Trout. Altuve provides solid production in all the counting stats, stealing a bunch of bases while still matching most other middle infielders in power. The best part is that while average isn't an overall consideration, Altuve's is so high that it really allows for sticking to the plan of not worrying about BA throughout the draft.

OK, so where does that leave Kershaw?

Barring news that Kershaw will miss more than two or three starts, he's third. Especially in today's increased run environment, the foundation he offers in ratios is nearly immeasurable. It allows so much flexibility in terms of how the rest of the staff is constructed. You want to support him with other strong arms but it does open up the path to take a chance or two. In addition, it sets up your offense to be safe and not replete with high risk, high reward hitters. When you own Kershaw you don't need to take chances; you just don't want to blow it.

Jonathan Villar is currently ranked fifth using projections, where would I draft him?

This was a very difficult decision since I'm a firm believer that Villar will play somewhere for the rest of the second half and be among the league leaders in steals. It's the steals that thrust him up the ranks using objective analysis but locking in steals early sacrifices power, not to mention takes you out of play for speed sources that are available for a smaller opportunity cost later. What I did was rank the hitters without Villar then went back and decided at what point I'd be willing to grab the speed relative to what's left on the board. The Brewers shortstop landed at 23, which means he'd likely be paired with a first-round home run hitter which seems reasonable. I'm very curious to see where my colleagues ranked Villar.

Whither Bryce Harper?

Using projections, Harper checks in ninth, but there were several hitters ranked immediately after I'd prefer so he got pushed all the way down to 16. This could be a mistake, as one patented hot streak and Harper is a top 5 overall hitter. The real conundrum for me was that Harper's contact rate is great. I know the "he doesn't get pitched to" narrative and it's a factor, but not a huge one. I better move on before I change my mind and bump Harper back into the top 10.

Whither Giancarlo Stanton?

By the numbers, Stanton was ranked 68th but even the most risk averse drafter wouldn't wait that long. To address the inevitable "why so low" question, my little black box doesn't like the drop in contact rate and I can't project him for a full second half. But man, that power. So I repeated the process used with Villar and Harper and determined where I'd take the chance on Stanton. The answer is with the 20th pick.

David Ortiz is ranked as a top 10 hitter by projections, where would I draft him?

There's some buzz in Beantown that Big Papi is playing through some nagging injuries. This being his farewell campaign you know Ortiz wants to play every day, but chances are his real hope is to hit a walk-off to win the World Series so it wouldn't be shocking to see the 40-year-old slugger take some time off. It came down to a simple query, who would I draft if both were available, Ortiz or Stanton? Papi is 19th; you do the math.

Have the young shortstops proven they're top 20 overall?

Yes, most of them have. Ketel Marte still has some work to do. Francisco Lindor at 13, Xander Bogaerts at 14 and Carlos Correa snuck in at 19. Corey Seager will get there but at least for now, he has to wait his turn. It was tempting to drop Bogaerts down a few spots since so much of his contribution is batting average but he also hits third in one of the most productive lineups in the league and has emerging power, so he wasn't moved. At 14 there will be a good chance Bogaerts gets paired with a power hitter, meaning steals must be snagged later, but you can use some of that buffer in batting average to absorb a weak but speedy player.

How should pitching be ranked?

As alluded to earlier, my way of dealing with the injuries and questionable performance of many top starters is to fade pitching relative to how it's been drafted lately, especially in the high-stakes arena. Back in the spring, the National Fantasy Baseball Championship average draft position had 23 pitchers drafted in the top 60, equating to four rounds of a 15-team league or five rounds or a 12-team format. Twenty of those arms were starters with three closers. In my second half top 60, I have just eleven starters and one closer -- quite a difference! I'm also very curious to see how my colleagues rank pitching. If the current trends continue, we could see some changes come next March.

I did have five pitchers in the top 30: Kershaw, Scherzer, Madison Bumgarner, Sale and Arrieta. Kershaw's injury aside, this quintet still warrants early consideration. Not so coincidentally, this group matches exactly what happened in the NFBC as they were the only top 30 hurlers.

I could pick arbitrary names to discuss but I'd much prefer addressing your questions about specific players, so let's call it a day. Go ahead and digest the rankings and I'll be happy to support my decisions in the comments.

Ed. note: Full composite top-350 rankings can be found here. Click the 'Show Individual Ranks' button to see each expert's individual rankings.