Mound Musings: Will This Streak Last?

He's on a roll … will it last?

It's time to start sorting out the real value from the impending disasters. Over the next couple of weeks, I'll look at both pitchers who have so far exceeded expectations – those major surprises who look very tempting right now – and the other side of that coin – pitchers who were expected to be valuable additions to a fantasy rotation but who have fallen short. There are pitchers on both sides of the ledger you can expect to see turn things around, for good or for bad, and they will be the discussion targets.​

This week, I would like to feature a few pitchers who have solid numbers at about the halfway point in the season, but they also qualify as pitchers who haven't quite convinced me it's going to last. Next week, we'll flip the coin, and I'll throw out some pitchers who have been battered way too often in the early months of 2016 but may be ready to turn the corner and give their fantasy team a boost.

Let's take a look at some arms you may want to stay away from going forward:

Some selected pitchers I would worry about in the second half:

Junior Guerra (Milwaukee) – He's a classic example of a marginal arm finding some success at the major league level based on lack of familiarity and a deceptive delivery that makes it a bit difficult for hitters to pick up the ball as it leaves his hand. Guerra spent a few years in the low minors before playing in independent leagues for six seasons. He had a brief look with the White Sox last year before hooking up with the Brewers this season. He's 31 years old, has a decent fastball that sits low 90s and inconsistent secondary stuff. That's not the recipe for long term success. The league will catch up with him soon, and his half season of impressive numbers will likely be forgotten. If you own him, now is the time to sell.

Jon Lester (Chicago NL)– It appears Lester has caught the Cubs' playoff fever, which is running rampant through their pitching rotation. He's 9-4 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, and those numbers include a beating he took in his last outing that hiked his ERA over a half a run per nine innings. Actually, I could probably have listed any of the Cubs' starters (except perhaps Jake Arrieta) as candidates for somewhat weaker second half performances, but I think Lester might be particularly vulnerable. He can be rather hittable at times, and baserunners are problematic since he's ineffective at holding runners on base, and if he falls prey to flyball tendencies leading to home runs, those baserunners turn into runs scored. Don't let me cause a panic, he won't be terrible, but don't expect more of the numbers you have enjoyed in the first half.

Drew Pomeranz (San Diego) – I waffled a bit when deciding whether to include the Padres' southpaw on this list. As I have stated in the past, Pomeranz is a nice reliever who teases us with stuff that could possibly translate into appealing statistics for a starting pitcher. Unfortunately, his lack of a reliable change-up has made him vulnerable to right-handed hitters, and that vulnerability has inflated his WHIP and ERA, leading back to the bullpen. He's been better this year, and righties haven't battered him, but it's still not consistent enough to be declared safe. If things continue to evolve he could prove me wrong, but he scares me and I'm not ready to endorse him long term.

Josh Tomlin (Cleveland)– There are a host of reasons for me to include Tomlin here, but the biggest reason is simply that hitters should hit his stuff. It just isn't that good. He has had injury problems in the past that he has thus far avoided, and the combination of too many baserunners and too many long balls always looms. His BABIP (.268) is far lower than it should be, and he has to keep his walk rate (1.1/9) as low as it has been to limit the damage of the 21 long ones he's served up in just 100 innings. I don't see it. He does have excellent command, which will help keep the WHIP in line, but with a pretty pedestrian fastball (averages 87 mph) he has virtually no margin for error, and I anticipate a steep rise in his ERA. His strikeout rate has also dipped considerably. Cleveland has a strong team, including the front of their rotation, but Tomlin and the back of the rotation could be exposed as a weakness as the season progresses. I'd be looking for an upgrade on my fantasy team.

Steven Wright (Boston)– I don't have anything against knuckleball pitchers, on the contrary, I fiddled around with throwing one years ago. One of the things I learned with that experience was just how many things could factor into the effectiveness of the pitch. Weather, wind, humidity, level of fatigue, the list goes on and on. While Wright isn't quite the traditional knuckler – his fastball is actually mid-80s – he's still at the mercy of, "some days it works, and some days it doesn't," so maintaining the level of success he enjoyed in the first half probably won't be possible. At one point, Wright had the lowest ERA of any qualifying American League starter. His walk rate puts a few too many men on base for that to last, albeit he does keep the ball in the park, so he has kept the damage from the extra runners to a minimum. Not many expected him to be the most productive pitcher in the Red Sox rotation at this point in the season, especially after David Price was brought in, but there he stands. It may not last until season's end.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The Dodgers have now lost Clayton Kershaw for a month or more with back problems. The team (and his fantasy owners) can be thankful that surgery wasn't needed, but covering for a loss of that magnitude is nearly impossible. Fantasy owners may need to look at relievers for WHIP, ERA and strikeouts.

• Tim Lincecum doesn't quite look the same in an Angels' uniform. Unfortunately, his pitching arsenal doesn't look quite the same either. He still gets a lot of movement, but the command is lacking, and his fastball velocity is below 88 mph, so there won't be any leaps in time back to the good old glory days.

• Earlier this week the Pirates put Jameson Taillon on the disabled list with what they're calling shoulder fatigue. With his injury history that sets off all kinds of alarms, but it could just be the team trying to manage his workload. Of note, the injury does open the door for another blue-chipper, Tyler Glasnow.

• It always intrigues me when I watch a pitcher several times, and each time I like him better than the time before. This year, this has been the case with Cleveland's Danny Salazar. His circle change just mesmerizes hitters, and now that he seems comfortable with his fastball command, the sky's the limit.

• Here's a keeper/dynasty suggestion. Go acquire Aaron Nola. His numbers this year don't tell his story, and he has been roughed up enough lately to drive the price tag down. The Phillies won't want to put too many innings on his arm this season, but I expect a very strong 2017, and his price won't get better.

• I had hoped that Kris Medlen could recapture some of the magic he possessed before arm problems derailed his path to success. Two Tommy John surgeries are worrisome (it's the two that concerns me) but now he's dealing with shoulder woes, possibly from adjustments made to relieve strain on his elbow.
  

The trade winds are already rustling the leaves in major league bullpens, starting with San Diego, where Fernando Rodney departed for Miami. He'll likely fill a set-up role for A.J. Ramos, but there's now an opening at the end of the Padres' bench. It appears Brandon Maurer will get the first crack, but Ryan Buchter is better suited to the job and could grab the gig if Maurer stumbles. Huston Street has been shaky, but the Angels aren't pointing to Joe Smith as their top alternative. Cam Bedrosian and his new-found command of the strike zone have moved up, and he's probably the guy to own. If you like speculating on live bullpen arms, have a look at Mauricio Cabrera in Atlanta. Arodys Vizcaino has done a respectable job, but Cabrera should be monitored. While Brandon Kintzler is keeping the closer's seat warm in Minnesota, he probably isn't the answer long term. The best bet is Trevor May working his way into the gig when he gets healthy, but I'd love to see Alex Meyer get a shot, but that depends on his chronic balky shoulder cooperating. He's definitely a speculative longshot. When Jake McGee returned from the disabled list, he didn't take over closing duties for the Rockies. There's a good chance that job may belong to Adam Ottavino when he gets back in top form.