Mound Musings: Quantum Leap, the Sequel

Last week, we began looking at some arms that could have a significant impact by the summer of 2018. A big part of achieving fantasy baseball success, especially in keeper and dynasty leagues, is projecting the full-blown arrival of star players. Most of today's star pitchers experienced some tough times prior to getting everything together and reaching their true potential. If you acquired that pitcher at a pre-star price, and owned him during his breakout season, you did well, and if you owned several contributing players in similar circumstances, you may well have won a league title.

We took a spin through the National League last week, and this week, I'd like to jump over to the American League (obviously these are pitchers in the A.L. this year). Again, we'll be looking for the top performing pitchers of that season. Some will be stars who are reaching the pinnacle of success, some will be longtime top performers, and a few might be surprises who chose 2018 to make their splash. And, you'll want to make note of current stars whose names are missing from the list.

Looking for the top pitchers in the American League - 2018:

1. Yu Darvish (Rangers) – By 2018 Darvish's Tommy John surgery should long since be forgotten and he should be back to top form and full strength. In fact, after having the odometer reset on his golden right arm, he may be stronger than ever. I'm going to put him down for 20 wins coupled with a strong WHIP and ERA. Not that special you say? Okay, add 300-plus strikeouts to the equation.

2. Chris Sale (White Sox) – Whether it be carving up throwback uniforms or dicing opposing lineups, Sale is an elite pitcher, and I see no reason that shouldn't continue. Because his delivery is so violent, some have predicted arm problems for him, but so far, so good. He typically suffers a handful of rough starts each season, but when the dust settles his final numbers usually will be excellent.

3. Kevin Gausman (Orioles) – Regular readers are well aware of my opinion of Mr. Gausman, and he has shown enough flashes of upside this year to make me even more enthusiastic. Please understand, I don't frequently predict great things for young pitchers, so my endorsement, while certainly no guarantee, has worked out often enough to be worth at least a flyer. This guy's gonna be good.

4. Cole Hamels (Rangers) – Perhaps my favorite aspect of Hamels is his uncanny propensity to pitch to the level of the team for which he plays. In other words, if the Rangers are a playoff-bound juggernaut (and I think they could be) this very good (albeit aging) pitcher morphs into an absolute beast. If he's still in Texas, there could be some very talented arms around him setting him up for a huge year.

5. Felix Hernandez (Mariners) – The most amazing thing about King Felix is that by mid-2018, if he maintains his current pace, he'll have tossed over 2,700 innings despite being just 32 years old. It's his defining characteristic, but it could eventually be his bane. However, until he displays some wear and tear from that high mileage, he has to be included in the top tier of starting pitchers.

6. Masahiro Tanaka (Yankees) – He has been extremely effective for the Yankees. And he has enjoyed most of that success while rehabbing an elbow issue that normally leads directly to Tommy John surgery. I suppose that elbow damage puts his spot on the list at risk, but he's pitched about a full season since it was diagnosed with little impact (his velocity has dropped slightly).

7. Garrett Richards (Angels) – Richards is also attempting to the rehab route rather than undergoing surgery on his elbow. The rehab has reportedly gone fairly well, but he isn't close to returning and has a long road ahead. If he throws in the towel and goes under the knife, he would miss next season and be limited in 2018, taking him off the list. But, what if nonsurgery works? Interesting.

8. Matt Moore (Rays) – This article is all about the future, but you need to step back into the past to make this connection. Moore was once just a shade outside of planet Gausman – a potentially devastating pitcher. Injuries have derailed his path to stardom, but if he's healthy, take note. Oh, and just to file away, a lot of MLB teams have been asking about his availability. There's a good reason.

9. Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers) – It sometimes takes a little while to adjust to pitching in the other league, and Zimmermann has had to do that since moving from Washington to Detroit. A nagging neck injury also sapped him of some velocity, but when he's right – like he should be in 2018 – he's a frontline starter who just needs a higher strikeout rate to move to the top tier.

10. Nathan Eovaldi (Yankees) – Velocity makes up for many shortcomings in a pitcher, but not so much at the major league level. Very few starters can match the hop on his fastball, and he can even induce a lot of ground balls when he keeps everything down. Watching him the past couple of seasons, he has teased us with stretches that saw his secondary stuff working. It's only a matter of time.

11. Aaron Sanchez (Blue Jays) – I almost moved him a couple of notches higher on this list, so don't be surprised if he outperforms. For the past couple of years he has been taunting us – mostly out of the bullpen – but this season he put most of the pieces in place, and the Jays are glad they didn't give in and move him to the bullpen. All he needs is a bit better off speed stuff to use against lefties.

12. Rick Porcello (Red Sox) – It's easy to forget how young he is – he'll only be 29 during the 2018 season. However, he's completing his eighth full season this year. Almost every fantasy player has been burned thinking this will be the year, only to be disappointed. Some of us (raises hand) several times. I think he's finally there. High strikeout totals are all he lacks or he'd be a true ace.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• People are getting concerned about the recent outings turned in by the Cubs' Jake Arrieta. He's been rather hittable of late, and his ERA has soared to a season-high 2.74, but his pitches are still crisp and the problem appears to be inconsistent location. I expect him to be back in form soon.

• I get asked about the Yankees' Michael Pineda all the time, and it's always a tough call for me. I remember so well what he was like when he first came up, but he can be anywhere between stud and pound cake in any given start these days. It's still there if he ever locks it down. He has ace tools.

• The Diamondbacks finally threw their hands up and sent Shelby Miller to Triple-A to work through things. There's a lot of talent buried in there, but he's so screwed up right now, it might take a while to get him back on track. I'm pretty certain he'll be back, but I doubt if he helps much this year.

• Earlier this week, Tyler Skaggs, making his first start in two years, dazzled the Royals for seven innings. The Angels could use that kind of boost to their battered pitching staff. As I mentioned last week, I tend to take the conservative approach with pitchers returning after a long layoff. This might be an exception.

• The Reds have some talented young pitchers in the system, and they expect Homer Bailey back from Tommy John surgery this weekend, so the rotation could get crowded as they sort things out looking to the future. Be aware they may allow their top prospects like the struggling Cody Reed to learn on the job.

• I wanted to put Sonny Gray in the list of 12 above, and then I considered putting him in the honorable mention list. I really like Gray, but I'm having a lot of trouble identifying a problem. The velocity is there, but his home run rate has doubled, and his BABIP is up considerably. Command has deserted him.
  

The back of the bullpen is often a focus as the trading deadline approaches, and this year is no exception. The Yankees sent Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs for five players. That will move Hector Rondon to a set-up role, while Andrew Miller (assuming he isn't also dealt) steps back into the closer's role. The A's Ryan Madson is scuffling (he's displayed a tendency to serve up home runs and now has seven blown saves) but the team hasn't shown any willingness to explore other options. After a horrible start to the season, Houston's Ken Giles has done a pretty good job. Will Harris is currently holding down the closer's gig, but Giles remains in the long-term plans. Keep an eye on this situation. The Cardinals put Trevor Rosenthal on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation. It's hard to say how much time he'll miss – you know shoulders – but it really firms up Seung Hwan Oh's grip on the end game duties. After a pair of epic implosions by Jonathan Papelbon, reports are that the Nationals may be in the market for a closer. If they don't go outside, Shawn Kelley could be a viable option. It sounds like Boston's Craig Kimbrel will be heading out on a rehab assignment soon. He's been out with a knee injury, and their best alternative, Koji Uehara has also been out.