Regan's Rumblings: The Final Two Months

The MLB trade deadline doesn't get my juices flowing the way that Opening Day and the playoffs do, but it's still one of the more frantic, fun, and fascinating times of the baseball season. Rumors, mystery teams, and subterfuge between baseball front offices and the media combine to make Aug. 1 and the days leading up to the deadline to be quite a ride. I'm not going to cover who I think "won" and "lost", as we really don't know. If trading for Josh Reddick and Rich Hill brings Los Angeles its first World Series title since 1988, then dealing three young and talented pitchers makes it all worth it. If Hill joins the Brett Andersons of the world by spending more time on the DL than on the active roster the next two months and Reddick posts a .650 OPS, then the front office will be on the hot seat in the minds of people that actually matter and not internet fan boards. Finally, it was amazing to see how much the Yankees upgraded their farm system over the past couple weeks and all by dealing two relievers (albeit great ones, but still…) and a 39-year-old DH.

Here are a few questions and random thoughts as we head into the final two months of 2016...

What happens to Yasiel Puig now?

It's become clear by now that Puig's demotion to Triple-A is more about his attitude and approach to the game and not his performance on the field. Sure, he's regressed since taking the baseball world by storm in 2013-2014, but since returning from his latest hamstring injury, Puig had hit .308/.390/.440 with a 15.2% K% in 105 plate appearances. The power still isn't consistent, but a guy with a .390 OBP hitting at or near the top of the lineup would help, no? No, this is more about sending the proverbial message. Now assuming Puig tears up Triple-A pitching, what happens next? An ideal Dodgers outfield would seem to be Josh Reddick, Joc Pederson, and Puig, but given there is likely more going on behind the scenes than any of us know, it's tough to say what happens next. My best guess? Puig stays in Triple-A for the rest of the month and returns when rosters expand on Sept. 1. If he plays well and walks the straight-and-narrow, perhaps he'll regain some fantasy value. In the meantime, Trayce Thompson (back) should return this week and partner with Howie Kendrick in the outfield.

What should we make of Dylan Bundy?

Yes, I was THAT guy who traded Paul Goldschmidt for Bundy in a keeper league five years ago. Goldschmidt had hit an okay .250/.333/.474 in 177 plate appearances in his 2011 rookie season, but Bundy was at the time, the consensus No. 1 pitching prospect in the game and I was looking to grab elite talent in our staff keeper league. Needless to say, that one didn't work out and yes, I still get some heat for this, including on Twitter. That all said, might Bundy be on the verge of at least somewhat salvaging some dignity for me on this deal a mere five years later? Shoulder and elbow injuries limited Bundy to just 63 professional innings since 2012 coming into this season, but after being eased back in as a reliever, Bundy is thriving now as a starter despite continued pitch count restrictions. In his last three starts, Bundy has posted a 1.53 ERA and 20:2 K:BB in 17.2 innings and overall is averaging a stout 94 mph with his fastball. He's doing a better job keeping the ball on the ground, posting a 45.7% GB% in those three starts versus a total mark of 33.7% on the season. Maybe it's wishful thinking and we'll hear of a sore shoulder soon, but I'm jumping on this bandwagon.

What is Max Kepler's Ceiling?

While Byron Buxton continues to disappoint (.579 OPS in 191 at-bats), Kepler is putting up some pretty crooked numbers. With the three-homer game recently, he now has 15 home runs in 205 at-bats with an overall line of .259/.342/.561. There are definitely some warts to his game, including a devilish .666 OPS versus LHP (1.029 vs. RHP), and his 20.4% K% could stand to be a bit lower, but Kepler should be able to refine those parts of his game over time. I'm not too surprised he's making an impact, as Kepler did hit .322/.416/.531 in Double-A last year. He has an interesting back story as a native of Germany who took up baseball a bit later in life than kids here in the states, but the talent here is obvious. I don't see him as a 30-35 homer guy just given his swing path and minor league history, but 25 homers and 20-plus steals annually in his prime are both attainable.

Why patience is often necessary with pitching prospects: Exhibit A – Danny Duffy

Hopefully you were able to see at least part of Duffy's last start in which he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning before settling for a one-hitter over eight innings with 16 strikeouts. For the year, Duffy is now 7-1 with a 2.98 ERA over 108.2 innings in a season split between the bullpen and rotation. Right now though, Duffy is pitching like a top-10 fantasy pitcher, going 5-0 with a 2.52 ERA, 9.9 K/9, and 1.3 BB/9 over his last seven starts. His fastball in that time is averaging 94.6 mph, his breaking stuff looks borderline elite, and his change up has been from what I've seen, highly improved. We said in our preseason profile that the lack of a change up leaves Duffy vulnerable to RH hitters, but that group is hitting just .230 this season as a result of the improvement he's showing in his change. This looks like a true breakout for Duffy, and if the 27-year-old can stay healthy, he has a very high ceiling.

Impact prospects still in the minors

This week we've already seen the MLB debuts of impact prospects such as Boston's Andrew Benintendi and Milwaukee's Orlando Arcia plus the less-heralded debut of a guy I really like, Houston starting pitcher Joe Musgrove. A.J. Reed is also back for Houston in his second go-around, so is there anyone left who may impact pennant races and fantasy outcomes between now and the end of the year? The guy that everyone is waiting for is Boston infielder Yoan Moncada, but the Red Sox don't appear to be ready to push Travis Shaw to the bench despite Shaw being useless versus left-handed pitching. Moncada has seen most of his time at second base, but that is not an option with Dustin Pedroia there, so look for the Red Sox to play Moncada some at third an in left field. He'll get his shot this year, but his real impact probably won't come until 2017. Here, however are a few guys ready to paid immediate dividends:

Alex Reyes (SP-STL) – His 5.33 ERA and 4.6 BB/9 say he's not ready, and he may not be, but given his 12.9 K/9, Reyes' stuff is big league ready. Reyes has a 4.1 BB/9 over his last six starts, so there's been some improvement. We should see him in St. Louis this month, particularly if Jaime Garcia's struggles continue.

Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe (OF-SD) – The Padres' outfield the other night following the Upton and Kemp trades included Alex Dickerson, Travis Janikowski, and Jabari Blash. Not exactly Greg Vaughn / Steve Finley / Tony Gwynn, the trio that led the Padres to their only World Series appearance back in 1998. Fortunately, the Padres have two of the best outfield prospects in the game in Margot (.356 OBP, 24 SB) and Renfroe (.320 BA, 26 HR). Of the two, I like the three-years-younger Margot a bit more given his contact skills (9.2% K%). Renfroe's 3.7% BB% is troubling, but the power upside is obviously there. Both should be up sooner rather than later, though recent comments from San Diego management would seem to indicate both will be more September call ups than August additions to the roster.

Aaron Judge (OF-NYY) – The Carlos Beltran trade clears the way for Judge to join the Yankees, but Judge was just activated from the minor league DL this week after missing nearly four weeks with a knee injury. Performance will dictate Judge's timetable, but given Aaron Hicks and his .187 BA currently occupy right field, we shouldn't have to wait long for Judge.

The return of Justin Verlander to elite status

I haven't been watching Verlander closely, but I knew he's been pitching pretty well. Turns out however that Verlander leads all MLB pitchers with a 1.1 WAR since the All-Star break. In four starts, Verlander has a 1.50 ERA, 10.5 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9 to lower his overall ERA to 3.54. Verlander's 9.5 K/9 is his best strikeout rate since 2009, and his 93.1 mph average fastball is his highest mark there since 2013. Perhaps most indicative of his improved stuff over the past couple seasons is Verlander's 11.8% swinging strike rate, a mark that has been exceeded once in his career, and barely – 11.9% in 2012. He's got his confidence back and looks once again like a top-10 fantasy starter.

A historic year for unheralded relievers?

It's not a surprise to see the likes of Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon among the top-10 leaders in saves, but we also have Alex Colome, Jeanmar Gomez, and Jeremy Jeffress in that elite group. Maybe it seems like this every year, but guys seem to be getting hurt (Wade Davis, Craig Kimbrel and others) and becoming ineffective (Shawn Tolleson, Jonathan Papelbon and many more) with increasing regularity. In looking at the current 30 closers, guys like Tyler Thornburg, Jake Barrett, Carlos Estevez, Cam Bedrosian, Edwin Diaz, and many others were barely blips on our collective radars a couple months ago. Now they are 90%+ owned in fantasy leagues after assuming closer duties for their respective teams. If you're looking for the next Barrett or Thornburg because you're hurting for saves, a few names that you may want to keep in mind are as follows:

Corey Knebel (MIL) – Tyler Thornburg gets first crack at replacing Jeremy Jeffress, but Knebel has a 13.1 K/9 in 10.1 innings, though he often isn't sure where the ball is going.

Mauricio Cabrera (ATL) – Ask Dodgers fans how current closer Jim Johnson fared after last year's trade deadline. All Cabrera is doing for the Braves is averaging 100.2 mph with his fastball. Safe to say that's closer material.

Michael Lorenzen (CIN) – Any reliever with a pulse could get a crack at saves in the Reds' bullpen the rest of the way. Lorenzen has a 2.79 ERA and 9.8 K/9.

Neftali Feliz (PIT) – Now fully healthy, Feliz has his velocity back up to 2011 levels, and with only Tony Watson ahead of him, Feliz could compete for saves down the stretch. His 10.9 K/9 is the best of his career save his abbreviated 2009 season.

Adam Ottavino (COL) – Once thought to be the team's closer of the future, Ottavino has returned from Tommy John surgery with 8.2 scoreless innings. With only Carlos Estevez ahead of him on the pecking order, Ottavino could get a look at some point.