The Z Files: Thinking About 2017

Yeah, I know. We still have over seven weeks left this season but I'm looking for any reason I can conjure to keep procrastinating on my limited fantasy football prep. Besides, I'm teaming with my Wednesday podcast partner Derek Van Riper in a National Fantasy Baseball Championship league that drafts as soon as the season ends.

Here are some early thoughts I've been kicking around with respect to next season's drafts and auctions.

The Boston Red Sox

This is a very crude study that needs a more intense treatment but since 2013 (I didn't check earlier seasons), the team that lead the league in runs would end up scoring appreciably fewer the following season. Of course this makes sense simply due to gravity, but some of the drops have been rather precipitous. In 2013, the Red Sox scored the most runs but finished 18th in 2014. In 2014, the Los Angeles Angels finished atop the majors only to drop to 20th last season. In 2015, the Toronto Blue Jays lapped the field but have dropped, albeit to a still-respectable sixth this season. A quick look at the top five each season shows that only two of the five repeated each time.

There's no doubt a confluence of factors that result in the league-leading number of tallies. Among the possibilities are several players with above average campaigns relative to their norm, lots of baserunners and very likely a fortunate batting average with runners in scoring position (BA w/RISP). The Red Sox lead the majors in batting average and BA w/RISP. They're second in batting average on balls in play (BABIP) which makes sense as Fenway Park boosts BABIP, but they're also second in hard contact.

If the club indeed scores fewer runs next year, that needs to be reflected in player expectations. Even with the same personal slash line, Red Sox players should receive fewer plate appearances with lower run production.

Right off the bat Boston will be without David Ortiz. While there have been some injuries, the core of Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Big Papi haven't misses significant time. Will that good health and good fortune repeat, let alone their performances?

The players under the most consideration are Betts and Bogaerts. My guess is Betts is drafted in the top three in many NFBC leagues with an average draft position (ADP) around fifth. Bogaerts looks to be anywhere from late first round to mid-second. Sorry, but I think that's too high for both.

Pitching

Given that I admit to being NFBCentric, it's easiest to use their ADP as the measuring stick. This season, 24 starters and three closers had an ADP in the top 75, equating to the first five rounds. Due to disappointing performances and injuries, combined with a lack of emerging arms to take their place, my guess is fewer than twenty starters and just two closers (Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen) end up with a top 75 ADP in 2017.

The top pitchers will still fly off the board (as they should, more on that in the offseason). This year, five hurlers were routinely picked in the first two rounds: Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Jake Arrieta, Chris Sale and Madison Bumgarner. Jose Fernandez will bump Sale and possibly be the first pitcher off the board. Depending on what happens with Noah Syndergaard in the offseason, he could sneak in the top 30 in some leagues.

It's between the third and fifth rounds where pitching should wane. There's no need regurgitating the injured and underperforming arms, we all know who they are. My sense is this will cause just enough pause in the spring that the early two-ace ploy won't be nearly as popular. And to be honest, I really hope I'm right since pitching will be drafted more based on how everyone ranks them relative to the field and not solely because they feel they need to.

OK big guy, if fewer pitchers are drafted in the third and fourth round, who jumps in?

Shortstops

One of the narratives in 2017 will be the return of scarcity drafting. The truth is scarcity will have nothing to do with it; the shortstop position is just that good. It's nearly laughable Troy Tulowitzki was the consensus second shortstop drafted in 2016 with an NFBC ADP around 52 (mid-fourth round). There's little doubt Bogaerts, Trevor Story, Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor are top-50 picks next season which right there is enough to account for the pitchers that drop out. If he's assured of regular playing time, Jonathan Villar belongs in the discussion as well.

But it doesn't end there. There's a good chance perceived scarcity pushes that quintet, along with Carlos Correa and Manny Machado, a few spots sooner than their value-in-a-vacuum ranks dictates. For those not wanting to pay the scarcity tax, there's Aledmys Diaz, Addison Russell, Trea Turner, Jean Segura, Tim Anderson and don't forget Tulowitzki.

Want to wait even longer? Marcus Semien, Brad Miller and Brandon Crawford will be there for the taking. We're already filling in the middle infielder slots and we haven't even talked about Eduardo Nunez, Jose Ramirez, Didi Gregorius, Elvis Andrus, Danny Espinosa and, dare I say it, Ketel Marte yet.

Will they do it again?

No, Wilson Ramos will not hit over .300 with 20-plus bombs. Well, at least he shouldn't. I'm talking about the more esoteric spikes in production from the following players.

Wil Myers: The Padres first baseman is currently a top 10 fantasy producer, likely to end up in the top 20. Staying healthy aside, his increase in power isn't that surprising, nor is a jump in average. But 20-something steals? Really? This is another area that needs more attention but from the preliminary work I've done, the chances of a repeat are slim and none, and none was just picked off.

Adam Duvall: Why is it that no one is calling Duvall out for a putrid .292 on base percentage like they did a few years back when players like Mark Trumbo and Ryan Ludwick exhibited similar spikes in power but had their overall game panned? What you see is what you get with Duvall so some give-back in contact and hard contact is likely, dropping his homers a little. The real question is will the Reds realize that while the power is nice, it doesn't make up for the rest of his game?

Let's be honest. I could go on and on in the manner, and the answer is almost always going to be "No, they won't do it again." This number seems high but it bears out year after year. Seventy percent of players fail to match their production from the previous season. Of course, every player should be examined individually with the objective being to land on that elusive 30 percent, but that's what the offseason is for. The real message is keep this fact in mind as you're closing out keeper league deals, building for the future.

Recency bias is a strong force, and very difficult to overcome. Fight it when building your keepers just as DVR and I will fight it in a few weeks when we draft our first 2017 squad.