This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
What I particularly enjoyed about the discussion was Laurila segmented it by highlighting areas to allow Ray to explain what was going on. It is that framework that I will be using to look into what Robbie Ray is doing this season.
Ray initially talked about a slight change in his delivery where it began with a 45-degree step back as his motion began rather than a lateral step to begin the motion. Ray isn't sure if that has helped him with gaining velocity this year, but Ray is definitely throwing harder this year, especially here in the second half:
Ray also explained how he is using his new-found velocity:
"My ball rides up a little. I'm able to get swings and misses up in the zone. It's also effective down in the zone that way. Guys think it's going to be a ball, but it stays true. Learning to work up is something that just came with time. I never really threw as hard as I do this
What I particularly enjoyed about the discussion was Laurila segmented it by highlighting areas to allow Ray to explain what was going on. It is that framework that I will be using to look into what Robbie Ray is doing this season.
Ray initially talked about a slight change in his delivery where it began with a 45-degree step back as his motion began rather than a lateral step to begin the motion. Ray isn't sure if that has helped him with gaining velocity this year, but Ray is definitely throwing harder this year, especially here in the second half:
Ray also explained how he is using his new-found velocity:
"My ball rides up a little. I'm able to get swings and misses up in the zone. It's also effective down in the zone that way. Guys think it's going to be a ball, but it stays true. Learning to work up is something that just came with time. I never really threw as hard as I do this year, so working up in the zone wasn't something I'd felt I could do. Now I can."
Ray generated 51 swings and misses in 2015 with fastballs up in the zone over 23 games. Through 28 games in 2016, Ray has already generated nearly double the amount of whiffs, 99, with his fastball up in the zone than he did in 2015.
Ray also talked about his slider:
"I think my slider is better this year. Part of that is being able to play it off my fastball command, but I feel it has better break, more consistent break. It's also harder, much like my fastball is harder.
The slider is most definitely harder this year – much harder:
The slider, with more velocity, becomes a "tighter" pitch and isn't so much slurvy. Ray's slider does not have as much drop to it this season so it has more late movement which is tough for batters to adjust to.
Opposing batters hit .233 off Ray's slider in 2015 and are hitting .229 against it this season, but the pitch has become harder for batters to make contact with. His slider generated swinging strikes 18.8 percent of the time last season and has done so 22.5 percent of the time this year.
Ray has used his fastballs and slider just over 90% of the time in 2016, so one has to wonder where his offspeed pitch is. The early scouting report on Ray as he came up from the minors was that his changeup was an average pitch but not a swing and miss pitch. Ray was much tougher on himself:
"I've always had a good changeup. It's only recently that I've had some troubles with it. I think a lot of that has to do with the velo jump and me thinking that I need to have a slower changeup. Now I'm starting to realize it doesn't have to be 85 in order for it to be effective."
That is nice awareness by Ray because the pitch values on his changeup are horrendous this season. The lack of velocity separation could easily be an issue because his changeup is currently in the high 80's which is not much separation off his fastball. Ray's changeup last year limited batters to a .171/.190/.390 line but this year, batters have teed off on the pitch at a .433/.514/.800 clip. Ray may be better served turning that changeup into some kind of splitter to at least get some drop on the pitch since he isn't getting much fade or deception with it in its current shape.
The other issue Ray has struggled with throughout his career is that third time through a lineup. The data show that pitchers are easier to hit that third time through a lineup, but Rays's career struggles are still a bit of a shocker.
| SPLIT | PA | HR | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 1st time | 512 | 3 | .233 | .316 | .336 | .653 |
| 2nd time | 505 | 11 | .275 | .337 | .414 | .751 |
| 3rd time | 329 | 17 | .311 | .376 | .556 | .932 |
The lack of a solid third pitch exacerbates this problem because batters have seen both primary pitches enough in the first two plate appearances to know what to expect in the third. This has been an issue for Ray throughout his career that has not gotten any better in 2016. This is the type of issue that limits Ray's overall upside because until he can show more success the third time through the order, it is going to limit how deep he can go into games and hurt his fantasy value as wins will be tougher to come by.
As he is now, Ray's numbers look a lot more like the more ballyhooed Matt Moore.
| PITCHER | BF | P | SWING% | MISS% | CONTACT% | STRIKE% | CHASE% | SWSTR% | P/BF |
| Moore | 746 | 2941 | 47 | 24 | 76 | 64 | 27 | 11 | 3.9 |
| Ray | 687 | 2805 | 47 | 26 | 74 | 64 | 28 | 12 | 4.1 |
The difference between the two is that Moore can go deeper into games as he has refined his changeup in 2016 and doesn't need to throw as many pitches to retire batters as Ray historically has. To date, Moore has earned $9 in NL-Only formats in 2016 with his 10 wins, 157 strikeouts, a 4.08 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. Ray, despite his 195 strikeouts, has earned $4 because he has just 7 wins, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 4.46 ERA thanks to a lot of those home runs in the later innings.
Still, Ray is going to finish 2016 as one of 10 pitchers with at least 200 strikeouts and that cannot be overlooked. The third time through the order thing can be improved with a new pitch to put into the back of the hitter's mind. That, in turn, should help him limit his late inning damage with the long ball as well. If that happens, the wins go up, the ratios go down, and that low-dollar earner in 2016 becomes the next big thing in 2017.
