The Z Files: DVR, Todd, You're On the Clock

Fans of the Wednesday Rotowire podcast know Derek Van Riper and I are about to embark on a partnership in the Premature Edraftulation League, a real National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) league that begins drafting as the regular season ends. Or, as soon as the rest of the league harasses the owner of the first pick into naming their player.

Guess who has the first pick?

Yup, DVR and I can't complain about not getting the first pick in any NFBC drafts next year, because we have it in the first NFBC draft of the year.

This is a standard 15-team NFBC league, run under standard satellite leagues rules with FAAB and a 7-man reserve list. The first FAAB period has historically been the opening weekend of the season, meaning chances can be taken knowing holes can be filled for Week 1.

The elegance of this league is we're all working strictly off our gut as even I won't have run any spreadsheets when we kick it off. We have no idea how the market ranks players like Jonathan Villar, Trevor Story, Trea Turner, Brian Dozier (interesting how all they are all middle infielders). It's anyone's guess if drafting two pitchers in the first five rounds will be the conventional strategy.

DVR and I covered some of this in the September 28 podcast, but I promise it's still worth a listen. There's not much that can go into pre-planning, especially with the first pick. The three general strategic elements Derek and I will hash out early will be:

1. Our pick
2. Will we take a pitcher at the 2/3 turn?
3. Do we want a stolen base specialist or piece steals together throughout our lineup?

Here's my thoughts on each. The key to a partnership is flexibility. Fortunately, I've had some experience running a team with a partner, as I've represented Mastersball with Lawr Michaels in the Fantasy Sports Trade Association league, winning it in 2014. I have no fear DVR and I will find mutually agreeable ground.

Our Pick

There are four players I'd consider: Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, Mookie Betts and Clayton Kershaw. My lean is Trout, reason being the floor. If the bet is Trout or the field as to who ends up as the top fantasy player in 2017, I'll take the field. But if the plan is to build the safest foundation and take some shots later, I want Trout on that wall. I need Trout on that wall.

The argument against Altuve is more roster construction than track record, as he's performed at an ultra-high level for three years, with the two years previous being near-elite. However, the middle infield pool is stacked. There's only three spots to take advantage of that depth, whereas there's five outfield spots.

Man, is it tempting to conjure up some arguments for Betts. At the end of the day, I'll concede Betts has a higher ceiling than Trout, in large part due to a very salient point DVR made on the podcast: Trout walks a ton. This is because of how he's pitched to, but also because he has a keen eye. Betts isn't a hacker but he draws far fewer bases on balls. The extra at-bats mean his batting average has a greater impact, along with the added balls in play increasing RBI opportunities. Another factor is the Boston Red Sox are lapping the field in terms of runs scored and history says gravity will pull them down in 2017. That is, Betts could hit to the same slash line but have lower counting stats organically. Still, with his across-the-board production, even with a drop his ceiling is high. But weren't we saying similar things about Carlos Correa this time last season?

The Kershaw argument obviously involves health as well as the debate over using a first-round pick on a pitcher. This is a topic that will no doubt come up a lot in the offseason and perhaps if health weren't an issue, DVR and I would have to really consider it. However, it appears he's not in the discussion, so we'll save that bandwidth for another day. That said, for the record, Kershaw is in play for me as soon as pick No. 2, assuming Trout is first. That is, Trout is the only player I would absolutely take before Kershaw. I'm not saying he's next for me for sure, Altuve and Betts are in the mix.

Will we take a pitcher at the 2/3 turn?

Derek and I touched on this, not really coming to a consensus. My lean is to make out a list of arms to consider if they're available at picks 30 and 31. If they're not there, we'd fade our first starter to the next turn, if not further.

The no-brainers to consider are Max Scherzer and Madison Bumgarner. Chris Sale and Corey Kluber are borderline; DVR and I would need to delve into the numbers in the likely event the others are gone. In the name of flexibility, I'd listen to arguments on Noah Syndergaard and Stephen Strasburg, but they better be great arguments!

Stolen base specialist or spread the speed?

This feeds into the blind nature of this league as we have no clue where the market ranks guys like Jonathan Villar, Starling Marte or Trea Turner. Though, cutting to the chase, this is all about Villar and whether Derek and I would grab him at the 2/3 turn. Since he's also at the magic 20 home run mark, he may not be available and the point is moot. If you heard the podcast, you may surmise Villar is very much on our radar. And you'd be right.

This being a private league, we'll only make the results public if everyone in the league clears it. But don't worry, DVR and I will share our picks via social media and likely on the Rotowire blog. Plus, if there's interest, we can use the comments section of this column to keep readers up to date and discuss upcoming picks.

Wish us luck!