Mound Musings: The Kids on Parade Watch List for 2016

This is probably the column I look forward to the most every season. As regular readers are probably aware, I play almost exclusively in keeper and dynasty leagues. Not surprisingly, there's a huge benefit to identifying and acquiring excellent pitching talent just before they arrive in the major leagues. If a young pitcher is going to turn into the next Clayton Kershaw, value dictates you want him on your roster before your league opponents realize he's a star in the making.

The problem is, this list is actually getting more difficult to maintain. There are still plenty of young arms with high ceilings, but it seems like more and more of them are called to the majors before they have had time to tip off that high upside in the minors. Colleges are doing a better job of preparing these youngsters – many believe the better programs are equivalent to Low-A or perhaps even High-A ball – and teams are desperate to find pitchers capable of helping today. The result has been an unprecedented rush to the major leagues, and we are left trying to sift through all those kids in an attempt to add the real impact arms, while avoiding the pretenders. It's not easy. I'll remind you that the pitchers below are primarily guys who will likely arrive (if they haven't already) in the next year, or two, at the most. Let's get started.

Put These Guys at the Top of Your Watch List …

Julio Urias (LAD) – I normally wouldn't include on this list a pitcher with 74 innings under his belt. You could make the argument for Urias having already arrived, but folks, let me assure you, with regard to this 20-year-old, you ain't seen nothin' yet! This season, he posted a 5-2 record with a middling ERA of 3.53 built with a disappointing 1.47 WHIP while ringing up just over a strikeout per inning, He accomplished a lot of that before reaching his 20s. While those numbers aren't bad, the lefty was a little too hittable (opponents collected 80 hits in his 74 innings) and he walked batters at a higher than anticipated rate. Combine those likely youth-impacted facts with a little bad luck (a high .366 BABIP) and his upside moving forward becomes obvious. He already hits the mid-90s with his fastball, and that will climb as his body matures, while he already features a full repertoire of plus secondary pitches. The bottom line is, I've said these kinds of things about a handful of blue chip pitching prospects before. However, I don't think I've ever described a teenager with these words. His ceiling is astronomical.

Alex Reyes (STL) – Reyes has been steadily climbing on the Parade for the last couple of years. I think this is as high as he goes. First of all, I really don't think he can overtake and pass Urias, and secondly, he should step into the top of the St. Louis rotation next April and never look back. His parade is about to make a huge impact. I could just repeat many of the observations listed above, but Reyes is two years older than Urias. That's still young, but two years is a lot when talking teenagers or low 20-somethings. Reyes logged 40 major league innings in 2015, and his numbers were better than Urias' stats. Reyes compiled a very solid 1.17 WHIP and an even more impressive 1.58 ERA. He struck out just over one hitter per inning, but he was stingy with the long ball (just one home run allowed). His only fault was too many walks, but those will come down as he settles in. Like Urias, he has true No. 1 stuff.

Lucas Giolito (WAS) – Last year, I said this about Giolito: "He has Stephen Strasburg upside." I still believe that is true even though he did his best to mask that upside in his 2016 major league screen test. The Nationals signed Giolito out of high school knowing he had a date with a surgeon for Tommy John surgery. They thought he was worth it. He had that surgery before his pro career got off the ground, and he is still getting back on track. He owns a triple-digit fastball – but averaged just 94 mph this season – and a jaw-dropping curve that he had trouble throwing for strikes. The Nationals still will work on refining his on-and-off changeup and rebuilding arm strength, all while continuing to to smooth out his somewhat violent delivery. An ugly 1.79 WHIP and a 6.75 ERA aren't the kind of stats you look for from an elite pitching prospect, but he clearly wasn't ready for prime time. He's very likely to need most of next season at Triple-A, but when it all comes together he could burst on to the scene and make a very big splash. Be ready.

Francis Martes (HOU) – The first pitcher in the 2016 Parade with no major league experience, and one of the few American League impact pitching prospects close to making the show, there's a lot to like about Martes – especially if you play in an AL-only league. I love this guy. He was pretty much ignored in the six-player deal with Miami that brought him to Houston, but he has the highest ceiling of any player in that trade. He's only 20 years old, so the Astros left him at Double-A Corpus Christi all season where he could show off his electric fastball (just mid 90s but it really dances) and one of the best curveballs I have ever seen (now you know why I love the guy), while continuing to smooth out his sometimes awkward mechanics and build confidence in a changeup that's a work in progress. If he gets it all together, it will be unfair to hitters. Okay, I guess should say "when" he gets it all together. He has the mound presence and demeanor of an experienced closer – a role he could step into tomorrow, but starting is his destiny.

Tyler Glasnow (PIT) – He almost got lost in the shuffle this year. Gerrit Cole was expected to take the next step but was hampered by nagging injuries, he struggled all season, and after missing two years due to injuries, Jameson Taillon jumped into the spotlight in Pittsburgh. Glasgow's few (18.1) mediocre MLB innings didn't garner a lot of attention. Don't make a big mistake and forget about him. At Triple-A Indianapolis he dazzled the competition. In 20 starts (110.2 innings) he compiled a solid 1.15 WHIP with a sparkling 1.87 ERA and 133 strikeouts. His walk rate was a bit high but it's improving, and he has the repertoire to transition to the major leagues soon – as in potentially out of spring training next year. I like Taillon and his pinpoint command just a little better, but the Pirates are flush with outstanding young arms, and Glasnow is right in the middle of it all. It's not guaranteed but maybe he'll come at a slight discount in 2017.

Amir Garrett (CIN) – At age 24, Garrett is something of a graybeard in the Parade, but when it comes to high level baseball experience, the long and lanky southpaw is a genuine newcomer. He was more of a basketball player until giving up that sport in 2014. He has built 25-30 pounds onto his spindly frame so he looks more like a baseball player, and he continues to impress with a lively fastball, a pretty decent slider and a passable (usually) changeup. He split this season between Double-A Pensacola (where he was clearly far ahead of the competition) and Triple-A Louisville (where he certainly wasn't out of place). I was lobbying to see him closing games in Cincinnati late in the season – he has the tools to do that right now – but the team opted to leave him in the minors where he could continue to develop his secondary stuff. Like the Pirates, the Reds have a nice collection of young arms, most of which have already appeared in Cincinnati. Personally, I think they're saving the best for last.

Anderson Espinoza (SD) – He's even younger than Urias, but also like Urias, he is advanced beyond his years. I think he's a longshot to debut in the major leagues next year – especially before the end of the season – but I want to include him here just in case. I will mention one serious concern: He was dealt from Boston to San Diego last July for Drew Pomeranz. I know, I'm not really a Pomeranz believer, but Espinoza should have brought more in return. At 6'0" and a shadow-defying 160 pounds, many question his long-term durability, and maybe the Red Sox are in that camp? I would think he will add some weight as he matures, and there have been others who have succeeded with his stature, so I'm going to stick with what I see. He spent this year in Low-A ball with just modest results, but he was routinely facing players a few years older, and he held his own. He has a strong three-pitch arsenal including a mid-90s fastball and a changeup you rarely see at his age. Keep him on the radar or grab him if available in dynasties.

Alex Meyer (LAA) – Some will chuckle at this Parade offering. He's actually been here before and is getting pretty old to justify inclusion, but I don't let things like that scare me off. He's now with his third organization (Angels) and they have given him a look this month. I started tracking Meyer when he was at the University of Kentucky. In a nutshell, he is 6'9" and like many extremely tall pitchers (I've been here), he struggles to repeat his motion and maintain a consistent release point. When he is in synch – albeit for brief periods – he can be almost unhittable. When he's out of synch, standing in the vicinity of the plate and/or batter's boxes can be dangerous. Think a combination of a young Randy Johnson and Major League's Wild Thing, Ricky Vaughn with no glasses. I just think somebody will find his control switch. I know. I've seen it happen. I know it's a leap of faith, but sing along … Wild Thing, you make my heart sing.

Jose De Leon (LAD) – I wrestled with where to put De Leon on this list. I've watched him when he looked like he should be near the top of the list, and other times when you would have to question whether he should be included at all. Injuries have been the culprit. He just can't seem to stay completely healthy. He's experienced an ankle injury, a sore arm and a sore shoulder, and the Dodgers were notably cautious with his workload and the timing of his promotion to the big leagues. He wasn't all that appealing when he came out of college (24th round pick), but he has developed quickly, has proven to be quite coachable and has displayed a strong work ethic. I think it's just a matter of time, and that time could come in 2017. With him it's all about strikeouts – ya gotta love that – as he has routinely generated huge punch out totals across the minor leagues, including 111 in just 86.1 innings at Triple-A Oklahoma City this season. He has the changeup to eventually continue that habit with the Dodgers.

A.J. Puk (OAK) – I thought this was a bit of an off year for pitchers at the first-year draft. There were several good prospects, but I didn't see any I wanted to put squarely in the elite category. Puk was the closest, and I want to include him here based on his basic raw skills, and the probability that he'll be able to move through the A's system fairly quickly. The big (6'7" and 230 pounds) southpaw is a pure power pitcher who sits in the upper 90s with his fastball and compliments that with a slider that can touch 90-91 mph. His changeup is still coming but shows some promise if he can turn it down a couple of ticks while maintaining his arm speed. If that off speed pitch improves, he could find his way to Oakland as soon as late next year. He tossed a few effective innings with Short-A Vermont this season and is ready for full season ball. It will be interesting to see whether the A's play it conservatively with Puk or put him on the fast track. Lefties with his arm are fairly rare, so they may want to see him face advanced competition.

Erick Fedde (WAS) – He missed 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery but he was still considered a top prospect and was taken by the Nationals with the 18th overall pick in that year's draft. Staying true to their organizational blueprint, the Nats eased him back into action in 2015 and then gave him 121 innings this year between High-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg. He was outstanding at Potomac and was readily adjusting to the higher level of competition after his promotion. Washington likes to be conservative with their kid pitchers, but Fedde may not fully cooperate. He has just average arm strength but possesses pinpoint control of his whole repertoire. That allows him to adjust as needed and could by him a ticket to the show later in 2017. Check to see where he begins the season – it could be back at Harrisburg or at Triple-A.

Luiz Gohara (SEA) – I usually cut this list off at 10 or 11, but I wanted to get another AL pitcher into the mix, and Gohara was next up. Another lefty, the 20-year-old Brazilian has a lot of raw skills, but he needs to refine those skills a bit in order to move up the food chain. He displayed some of that refinement this year after arriving in Low-A Clinton, and I think he might be ready to jump up again next year. He has a mid-90s fastball with a developing slider and changeup. He's admittedly a longshot to arrive in Seattle next season, but he's one worth adding to your radar and could be worth a flyer in dynasty leagues. If he smooths out his mechanics, he could be a nice find.

Yes, there are more names that could be added to this list, and I apologize if your guy isn't here – but I want to keep the Parade as pristine and pure as possible. It's not easy to make this list, and it can be very hard to maintain your spot, but the list is never static. Tomorrow, the list could, and probably will, change.