Regan's Rumblings: Spring Training Standouts

Opening Day is just around the corner, and once again, guys are posting eye-popping numbers. We've been conditioned, of course, to take spring training statistics with a proverbial grain of salt, and in many cases, rightfully so. Last spring, Nick Ahmed hit .432 before going on to have a "Nick Ahmed" regular season. No one hit more than Maikel Franco's nine home runs last spring, but Franco managed "just" 25 in the regular season to go with a .733 OPS. So are any of these performances we're seeing this spring "believable"?

Let's take a look at a few...

Raul Mondesi, 2B, KC

I was asked about Mondesi a few times in the Ask-an-Expert section, so I thought I'd expand upon my "no" answer as to whether I'm buying shares. Not that this is at all relevant, but Mondesi's dad was one of my favorite players when he was with the Dodgers -- cannon for an arm, some power and maybe a bit of a temper. Sounds like a certain right fielder playing for them today, no? Anyway, Raul's kid is pretty good in his own right, being the first player ever to make his MLB debut in the World Series, and now he's batting .375/.388/.625 this spring. He surely has talent, but I've not buying this one. He's drawn just one walk and hit .185/.231/.281 in 149 PA's a year ago. Mondesi posted a 108:23 K:BB across all levels last season, and big league pitchers are going to exploit that hacker mentality. Not everyone can swing as much as Vladimir Guerrero did and have success, and though Mondesi may ultimately become a star, he's not quite ready at the tender age of 21. Based on speed alone, he's probably worth a late-round flier in a lot of leagues, but he's going to hurt you in other categories.

Jesus Aguilar, 1B, MIL

I know very little about Aguilar outside of what I see in the numbers, but his spring slash line (.463/.525/.870) makes me want to watch him hit. Aguilar was informed Tuesday that he had made the 25-man roster, and he certainly picked the right organization to break through with. Aguilar, 26, has seen some cups of coffee before, going 10-for-58 (.172) the last three seasons in Cleveland. There's no doubting his power after last year's 30 home runs in Triple-A, but he does strike out a lot, and at 6-foot-3 and 250 pounds, he's not going to be legging out too many infield hits. In fact, Aguilar hadn't swiped a base since 2011 before recording one this spring, though I have my doubts that was a straight steal. Eric Thames is set to be the team's first baseman after signing a three-year deal this winter, but the Brewers have also experimented with Thames some in the outfield, so Aguilar will get some looks, especially in interleague play. At a minimum, he's an interesting reserve pick in NL-only leagues.

Adam Frazier, OF, PIT

I really like this kid. Frazier is hitting .400/.468/.636 this spring, including three home runs and a couple of steals. If given semi-regular (350 or so) at-bats, Frazier is a guy who can hit .300 with a handful of home runs and 15-to-20 stolen bases. He's OF-only for right now in leagues that require 20 games played to quality at a position, but eventually he could see enough time to qualify at multiple infield positions as well. Frazier has hit .324 and .333 at his last two minor league stops while striking out less than 10% of the time, and could have value as a super-utility type player in deeper leagues. There's even the possibility that he could take over a regular role on the infield, as Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, Jung Ho Kang, and David Freese aren't exactly All-Star material.

Mitch Haniger, OF, SEA

I enjoyed watching Haniger play in Reno back when he was an Arizona minor-leaguer. He posted a 1.098 OPS there last year, has locked down a starting job by batting .400/.443/.677 this spring, and looks to be a lock for 20-25 home runs, even in Seattle. I rolled my eyes a bit at this one, but he's also looking to steal 20 bases and has the reported "green light" from his manager to do so. 20 homers and 10 steals, and his sub-20% K%'s in the minors should lead to at least a .260-plus batting average.

Taijuan Walker, SP, ARI

While getting Jean Segura and the aforementioned Mitch Haniger looks like a coup for Seattle, Walker is having a solid spring in his own right. The move from Seattle to Arizona doesn't appear to be a pitcher-friendly move, but maybe the change of scenery and shift to the NL will allow Walker to relax and to start fulfilling expectations. This spring, Walker has a 4.03 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, but more importantly, he has an eye-popping 28:2 K:BB in 22.1 innings. Walker underwent ankle surgery in October, so it's fair to wonder if that affected him at all during the year. He's been clocked as high as 97 mph this spring after averaging 93.9 mph with his fastball a year ago. If the state of Nevada permitted DFS, I'd use him in every road game in San Diego for sure, and perhaps more often. For Arizona's sake, hopefully this trade works out better than last year's Shelby Miller fiasco.

Danny Salazar, SP, CLE

I had a preseason "Carlos Carrasco will win the AL Cy Young award" prediction a couple of years ago, so perhaps I'm not qualified to give advice about Cleveland starters, but I like what I've seen from Salazar so far this month. After walking seven batters in his first 4.1 innings, he's issued just six free passes in his last 19.2 frames this month, and overall in 26 innings, he's leading all pitchers with 37 strikeouts. Salazar was an AL All-Star a year ago before arm issues limited him in the second half and he finished with just 137.1 innings. Salazar struggled to the tune of a 4.1 BB/9 last season, but given his previous two rates were 2.9 and 2.6, control is something he should improve upon year-over-year. There's no doubt that when "elbow" and "forearm" are mentioned as being sore that there are concerns, but predicting pitcher injuries is a very inexact science, and given that Salazar is healthy and missing so many bats, I'm buying.

Delino DeShields Jr., OF, TEX

I cringe as a Dodgers fan every time I see this name, but Delino's kid is looking pretty this spring. He's been informed he's making the team, which seemed obvious given he's batting .316/.451/.351. DeShields leads all participants with 12 stolen bases and his 14 walks are also tied for first with two others. That said, the Rangers' outfield is too crowded for him to see regular at-bats, right? Not so fast. Here are other names we have listed on the left field depth chart: Ryan Rua, Jurickson Profar, and Joey Gallo. Profar is batting just .182 while Gallo has four homers (and 20 strikeouts) to go with his .239 average. DeShields probably deserves to start, and if that happens and he has early success, his OBP ability could push him to the top of the lineup where the steals and runs scored would come in bushels.

Greg Bird, 1B, NYY

As a Yankee, Bird certainly has his fair share of hype and attention right now, and that could ultimately lead to a lack of ability to buy low, but he also had no stats last year, so that could help in some leagues where perhaps lesser-informed owners haven't taken note of his exploits this spring. Bird is batting .447/.527/1.085 with seven home runs this spring (second to Bryce Harper's eight). Bird did strike out 29.8% of the time in his impressive 2015 rookie debut, so there is some batting average downside, but if he can fare well enough against southpaws to avoid a platoon with Chris Carter, Bird has easy 25-to-30 home run ability. He may be limited to the .260 range with the batting average, but with Bird, Gary Sanchez, maybe Aaron Judge (those strikeouts…), and prospects like Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier, the Yankees are going to be scary in a couple of years.

Brandon Drury, OF/3B, ARI

Drury has been named the team's starting second baseman, but given he logged just 16 games at the position last year, he may only qualify at 3B and OF in some leagues. Still, Drury has hit .385/.407/.596 this spring, though surprisingly there are no home runs among his nine XBH. Still, that's not much of a red flag, as Drury should be good for .280 with 15-to-20 homers, and given he's a RH hitter who hits lefties and righties equally well, Drury could put up a 600-plus at-bat season. He's a guy you'll want to use at home versus LHP in DFS leagues, but as a roto guy, he should be a solid everyday MI option in all formats. His ceiling isn't especially high, but his floor is.

Francisco Liriano, SP, PIT

Liriano has never pitched 200 innings in a season and likely won't this year, but he has at least topped 160 strikeouts in each of the last five campaigns. Liriano has a 1.88 ERA this spring to go with an excellent 25:4 K:BB in just 14.1 innings, but it's tough to get too excited about a guy who routinely walks 70-to-80 hitters a year. He's still a relatively big name and is left-handed (which I always prefer), but while I think he can certainly improve upon last year's 4.69 ERA, I'm not hopeful he's suddenly figured things out this spring.

Just for fun, here are my 2017 award predictions:

NL Cy Young – Clayton Kershaw – Original, I know. If he has any recurrence of his back issues, I like Madison Bumgarner and then Jake Arrieta as a third option in his contract year, which should net him a $200 million deal.

AL Cy Young – Chris Sale – May as well keep it in Boston.

NL MVP – Nolan Arenado – I expect the Rockies to win a Wild Card spot this year and for Arenado to put up more monster numbers.

AL MVP – Mookie Betts – Mike Trout deserved it last year, Red Sox fans, but I think Betts slightly edges him out this year.

NL ROY – Dansby Swanson – Diamondbacks fans disagree.

AL ROY – Andrew Benintendi – The power numbers may not be there just yet, but his all-around game is just so impressive.