This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
stop working from the windup with nobody on base in the middle of a plate appearance.
I have had my eyes on pitchers, and a few things stand out to me. For one, some former big names have apparently discovered the fountain of youth as they have gotten results well above what most expected. We have also seen a few pitchers change their scripts and start using a different pitch as their second pitch. Let's go through a bunch of these names and see what they are doing differently out of the gate.
As always, this comes with the caveat that current results are no guarantee of future performance and the league will adjust to the changes these pitchers have made.
James Shields
Shields went from a strong second pitcher to being undraftable in just a couple seasons. Last year, he was an absolute fantasy disaster at 6-19 with a 5.85 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. It was one thing in 2010 when he had a 5.18 ERA with a 4.24 FIP, but last year his 5.85 ERA was bested by a 6.01
stop working from the windup with nobody on base in the middle of a plate appearance.
I have had my eyes on pitchers, and a few things stand out to me. For one, some former big names have apparently discovered the fountain of youth as they have gotten results well above what most expected. We have also seen a few pitchers change their scripts and start using a different pitch as their second pitch. Let's go through a bunch of these names and see what they are doing differently out of the gate.
As always, this comes with the caveat that current results are no guarantee of future performance and the league will adjust to the changes these pitchers have made.
James Shields
Shields went from a strong second pitcher to being undraftable in just a couple seasons. Last year, he was an absolute fantasy disaster at 6-19 with a 5.85 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. It was one thing in 2010 when he had a 5.18 ERA with a 4.24 FIP, but last year his 5.85 ERA was bested by a 6.01 FIP. In short, Shields had nothing to lose and only his contract kept him on the mound.
Through three starts, apparently hitting rock bottom had an effect on Shields because he has finally changed some things, and change is the key word. Shields has long been known for his changeup, but as his fastball has declined, so has the effectiveness of the changeup. This year, he is barely using it and has instead gone the way Adam Wainwright went in recent years when he began using his cutter and his curveball as his offspeed pitches. So far, it is working.
| SEASON | FB% | CT% | CB% | CH% |
| 2011 | 36.4% (91.0) | 15.4% (86.7) | 21.0% (77.7) | 27.2% (83.9) |
| 2012 | 33.7% (92.3) | 19.3% (89.6) | 18.2% (79.9) | 28.9% (85.2) |
| 2013 | 40.7% (92.2) | 22.1% (87.1) | 12.4% (78.9) | 24.9% (85.0) |
| 2014 | 41.4% (92.4) | 24.2% (86.7) | 12.5% (79.6) | 21.9% (85.3) |
| 2015 | 41.8% (91.0) | 18.5% (85.9) | 18.7% (78.2) | 21.0% (84.3) |
| 2016 | 44.0% (90.4) | 18.6% (86.3) | 15.6% (77.0) | 20.4% (83.6) |
| 2017 | 39.0% (90.4) | 30.0% (86.4) | 21.0% (75.0) | 10.0% (83.3) |
He has limited batters to a .153 average and a .150 BABIP in three starts, striking out 23 percent of the batters he has faced while also walking 15 percent, but has a 1.62 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. In short, if you speculated on him in the reserves and plugged him in early, you have some nice ratios and strikeouts and a win under your belt from him. The league is going to adjust to this and when it does, it will not be pretty.
CC Sabathia
Sabathia, like many Yankees starters, is firing on all cylinders. He won two of his first three starts with a 1.47 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. He is throwing with a little more velocity, but that is really the only change. His pitch mixture is identical to last year when he was still serviceable in AL-Only leagues, but his strikeouts are way down so far at 5.4 K/9. The difference between his 1.47 ERA and 3.72 FIP give you a warning of what is to come, so cash in while the getting is good because Sabathia is still the same guy he was last year and is just riding a hot streak.
Ervin Santana
"Big Erv," won his first three starts with even more improbable numbers than the preceding two pitchers. Santana has a 0.41 ERA, 0.45 WHIP and .074 BABIP and has stranded every single baserunner he has put on base. He has an ERA because he allowed a solo home run to Mike Moustakas in the fourth inning of his first start, but is now in the midst of a 16.2-inning scoreless streak of baseball after shutting down the White Sox in back-to-back starts, including a shutout next time out. There is no increased velocity nor is there a new pitch. This is one of those stretches of baseball where the Luck Dragons are on your side and nearly every batted ball finds a glove. Hopefully you have used him in AL-only leagues or lucked into him in your mixed league to cover one of the many early pitching injuries this season, but the lease on this rental is about to expire.
Now, I want to look at a few pitchers who are changing what they do when they do not use their fastball.
Brandon McCarthy
McCarthy, at least for now, is back on the mound. He won two of his first three starts with a 2.12 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, striking out 8.5 per nine innings. He looks a bit different this year because he has spiked his groundball rate back up to 50 percent after back-to-back small sample size seasons of sub-40 percent rates. His velocity is back to where it was pre-most recent injury, but he is throwing fewer fastballs now and has spiked the usage of his cutter. Back in the earlier part of this decade, McCarthy lived off the cutter, but from 2014-2016, he turned the cutter into his tertiary pitch with usage rates of 14, 16 and 10 percent. This season, he has used his cutter and curveball at equal rates – 24 percent. He has not thrown a changeup in years, so like Shields, he is using those pitches as his offspeed pitches. The 3.7 walk rate needs to come down because McCarthy cannot strand 86 percent of his baserunners forever. In an NL league, I'm willing to ride him until he breaks down if he can bring that walk rate down.
Ivan Nova
Nova's most recent outing was a complete game 2-1 loss to the Cardinals. He now has four complete games while pitching for Pittsburgh and still has just three walks as a Pirate. He has a 70:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio for them, but is now 1-2 with a 2.25 ERA this season and has just eight strikeouts in 20 innings. Before Nova came to Pittsburgh, the Yankees had him using his four-seam fastball and his curveball as his primary pitches but then cut that back two seasons ago in an effort to keep the ball in the yard. Now that he is out of Yankee Stadium, the Pirates are letting him use his four-seamer again and Nova is now throwing that pitch 34 percent of the time along with his two-seamer 43 percent of the time. The curveball, which is something he used heavily as a Yankee, has taken a back seat so far at 15 percent utilization while the changeup usage has risen from 5 to 8 percent. The drop in strikeout rate can be explained by using fewer curves and more two-seamers. Two-seamers are strikeout pitches for strikeouts looking, unless you are Thor and your pitch moves a crazy amount. The fact Nova's swinging strikeout rate is a career-low 5.1 percent speaks to the point where the Pirates appear to be comfortable combining Nova along with their heavy utilization of shifts into a pitch-to-contact situation. If that sticks, he loses mixed-league viability because the low strikeout rate is very tough to roster without wins or strikeouts.
Nathan Karns
Karns is off to an odd start. He has made two starts and appeared in three games with a low 5.8 K/9, 4.38 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. In short, he is barely rosterable in AL-Only leagues, but I'm playing the hold game, and here is why. Karns has only been in the majors since late 2013, but the book on him was straightforward: a flyball pitcher with a fantastic curveball, spotty fastball command and a changeup with some upside. In 2017, he has changed things up, literally. The curveball, which has received a 65-70 grade from scouts, is now his tertiary pitch as Karns is taking to the changeup with a passion. The changeup usage was 11-13 percent the last two seasons, but he is using it 27 percent of the time this year. I watched both of his starts, and he used the pitch early in counts, late in counts and doubled up and even tripled up with the pitch. Karns was on the New Pitch Tracker for his changeup, and he is using it. The change of pitch mixture is helping him generate more groundballs, as his groundball rate is way up to 62 percent. Karns got destroyed in his relief appearance when he allowed four runs in 0.2 innings, but has had back-to-back starts against Houston and Anaheim where he allowed just one earned run in each outing. If I am in an AL League, I'm kicking the tires on him and hoping his owner is panicking about a low strikeout rate and a mid 4's ERA. He has upside.
Phil Hughes
Hughes was another guy on the new pitch tracker as he said he was going to take the mothballs off his changeup. Hughes was never really a heavy changeup guy as his peak utilization of the pitch was 10 percent in 2012. This season, he is using the pitch as his secondary pitch as he has thrown the changeup 27 percent of the time compared to 18 percent curveball utilization. Hughes does not have the fastball any longer, so he's going heavy cutter/curve/change and spotting his fastball. It works in a friendly park such as Target Field, but it's a fine line between success and disaster for him. I recently grabbed him in AL Tout Wars to stream as needed. For more on what Hughes is going through, listen to an interview Brandon Warne of Zone Coverage did with him last weekend.
