Oak's Corner: Gausman on a Roll?

The Week That Was

• There is no way around it; Todd Frazier is having a brutal fantasy season. In 107 games with the White Sox and Yankees, Frazier is hitting .209 with 19 homers and four steals. Frazier was a batting average drain last year at .225, but for fantasy owners, at least that average came with 40 homers and 15 steals. Despite the batting average dip, the power/speed combo was still enticing for fantasy players, and Frazier's NFBC ADP was 80. With only a quarter of the season remaining, Frazier is not only way off pace from his power numbers the last two years but he isn't tossing in the steals either, all while the batting average has dropped even more.

  On a positive note, Frazier has dropped his strikeouts three percent to 21.4 percent and he currently has the highest walk rate of his career at 13.6 percent. Frazier's BABIP is very low at .224 so there may be a little bad luck in there, but a closer look at his batted ball profile shows some issues. Frazier's hard hit rate is at a five year low at 30.3 percent, not what you want to hear about a power hitter, but of more concern this year is his rise in soft contact. Frazier's soft hit rate of 24.1 percent is easily the highest of any of his six full seasons and puts him in the top 10 in baseball in that stat. Most of the top 10 is made up of speed guys who don't mash the ball, but Frazier is big and strong, so he must be getting fooled a lot and hitting balls without any authority. Further, Frazier leads all of baseball in infield fly ball rate at 18.7 percent, a number that does nothing to help his BABIP or batting average. Even in the Yankees lineup, I consider Frazier a drop in 12-team leagues, and I didn't even bid on him where he was dropped in one of my NFBC leagues. His ADP is going to tumble significantly coming into 2018 drafts and even at a much lower price, I'm still not interested.

• After a 2015 season in which Arizona's A.J. Pollock hit .315 with 20 homers and 39 steals, he was a fantasy darling who flew up drafts boards in 2016 but he suffered a fractured elbow on the weekend the season started and missed all but 12 games of the 2016 season. Seemingly healthy entering 2017, Pollock's ADP checked in at 39, making him a middle fourth rounder in 15 teamers. Pollock missed about a month and a half of the season with a groin injury, but the concerning aspect of his season is how poor his performance has been while healthy. In the 75 games Pollock has played, he's hitting .273 with 16 stolen bases, but with only five homers and a shockingly low 20 RBI. Pollock's strikeout rate has jumped four percent to 17.2 percent from his breakout 2015, while his walks have dropped from 7.9 percent to 6.2 percent.

  The drop in homers is a bit surprising as Pollock has hit more fly balls than in 2015 (but still low at 31.2 percent), and with his solid 35.3 percent hard hit rate, one would expect the homers to be similar to his 2015 campaign. The drop in Pollock's HR/FB rate has killed the homers, as it stood at 12.2 percent in 2015 but only at 6.9 percent this season. With Pollock's low fly ball rate, we can't expect a large home run number, but the five homers, even with missing a chunk of the season, is still hard to believe. I'm still a Pollock fan, and the 16 stolen bases are valuable considering they have come in only a half-season of games, but the lack of homers and RBI has smoked any team that drafted him. The injury concerns are also real on Pollock considering the groin injury he suffered this season was similar to the one he had last September. I would probably only target Pollock right now in a keeper or dynasty league where I could grab him at a discount and hope he can use this offseason to finally get fully healthy.

• A look at Orioles Kevin Gausman's overall line in 2017 yields nothing really exciting for any fantasy league. Through 26 starts, Gausman has posted a 5.08 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP but has turned it on in a huge way of late. After a blowup at home against the Cubs on July 14th where he allowed eight earned runs in three innings, Gausman has made six starts with a 1.80 ERA, striking out 44 while only walking 12 over 40 innings. The former fourth overall pick had a long stretch like this in the second half in 2016 with a 3.10 ERA over his final 93 innings, which spurred much of the draft interest coming into 2017.

  He has made many strong starts in 2017, but the inability to avoid the large blowup games just kills his overall ratios. Gausman has had eight games in 2017 where he gave up five runs or more and often the issue in those games has been home runs. He has allowed 1.41 HR/9 so far this year, a number that is almost directly in line with his number the last two seasons and one that isn't good when you combine it with his increased walks, which have jumped to 3.60 BB/9 this season. Pitching in the AL East and in Camden is a tough combo for a pitcher who allows homers, but even in with the great stretches he has flashed, I'm unwilling to buy until he can find a way to limit those homers, which would help him avoid those frustrating blow up starts.

• Astros Charlie Morton's increased velocity and excellent 1.04 ERA spring pushed him up draft boards in March, but in the first half of the season, he did what Charlie Morton usually does: He had flashes of brilliance but, at the end of the day, he posted an ERA over 4.000 and got hurt. Through his first 10 starts of the season, Morton posted a 4.06 ERA, but he did it with a strong 65 strikeouts in 57.2 innings. He always seemed to hit that one poor inning that kept him from really being good. Morton then strained a lat muscle and spent six weeks on the DL.

  He has returned from the DL a better pitcher. In his eight starts since returning, Morton has a 3.26 ERA and allowed only a .597 OPS against, a number more than 150 points lower than his initial stretch of starts. Along with being harder to hit, Morton has kept the strikeouts with 54 punch-outs in 49.2 innings. Through it all, Morton has maintained a strong ground ball rate at 50.7 percent and also suppressed hard contact under 30 percent. I love what I see from Morton since his return from the DL and I am full buy on him for the rest of the year.
  

• Tyler Skaggs: Skaggs was the No. 1 ranked prospect in the Diamondbacks system after the 2012 season, but struggled a bit in 2013 and was traded back to the Angels (the team that drafted him) in that offseason before the 2014 season. After a decent start to his Angels career, he underwent Tommy John surgery and didn't return until 2016. Skaggs came into 2017 fantasy drafts as a post-hype sleeper and after an April that saw him post a 3.99 ERA in five starts, he suffered an oblique injury that cost him three months. Since his return, Skaggs has been solid, allowing only five earned runs over three starts, totaling 15.1 innings, good for a 2.93 ERA. His walks have been a bit elevated with seven in those 15.1 innings, but that can happen after an extended time off.

  Skaggs gets two starts this week, and the good news is that they are at home. The bad news is that he faces the Rangers and the Astros. The Astros are obviously a monster offense with nearly 60 more runs scored than any other team and they feature an incredible four full-time players with an OPS over .940. The Rangers, despite nowhere near the hype of the Astros are no slouch themselves as they rank sixth in MLB in runs. However, they have shown a weakness against lefties as they rank 23rd in baseball in team OPS vs. lefties. If they mashed lefties, I wouldn't even think about considering Skaggs this week, but I did, due to their weakness against southpaws, especially with both starts at home. In the end, I think the Astros start worries me too much to grab Skaggs, but in a deeper league where your ratios are good, I think he can be worth a stab to grab some strikeouts and maybe a win, and just hold your breath for the Astros start. However, with those Astros on the schedule, he is a pass for me in 12-teamers this week.

• Cory Spangenberg: Spangenberg has quietly put up a nice season in San Diego with 12 homers and eight steals to go along with a .280 batting average. His counting stats are also decent in 93 games played with 47 runs and 43 RBI. His performance as of late really put him on my radar, as he's hitting .333 since the All Star Break with seven homers in only 31 games. This surprising power surge power comes after he hit only one homer through his first 33 games of the season. Spangenberg's newfound power isn't likely to keep up; he has never topped six in any season before this year, but it does come with some statistical support as he has raised his hard hit rate over 30 percent for the first time in his career, and his fly ball rate is at a career-high 29.9 percent.

  The concern on Spangenberg for me comes from the newly elevated strikeout rate as he's striking out 26.6 percent of the time as opposed to only 21.7 percent in 2015, his last stay of any real length in the majors. His average has been assisted by a .359 BABIP, and the clear bet certainly would be on that number falling. On the positive side, Spangenberg is playing every day, and his value boosts even more when you realize that he's eligible at second base, third base and the outfield. Being able to use someone at middle infield, corner infield and outfield has a ton of value, especially in September where injuries and playing time get tougher to predict week to week. Spangenberg likely has had his best month of the season, but with the multiposition eligibility and a bit of a power /speed combo, I like him as an add in 12 teamers if you need a middle infielder.

• C.J. Cron: I feel like I have been on the ride one too many times, but I like Cron as a hitter and am hoping with his recent hot streak that Mike Scioscia will slot him in the lineup and leave him there. Since the All Star Break, Cron is hitting .324 with an impressive seven homers and 18 RBI in 22 games. Cron had 16 homers in each of the last two seasons for the Angels in less than 120 games and looked poised to maybe break out in 2017. He came out of the gate poorly and rapidly (way too rapidly in my mind) began to lose playing time to a crowded corner infield situation in Anaheim and eventually was sent down to Triple-A.

  So far this season, Cron has a career high hard hit rate of 35.1 percent and also has bumped his fly ball rate up more than 6 percent to 45 percent. The nice thing about Cron is that with some pop also comes a decent batting average, which is very different than many of the fringe corner infielders on the waiver wire. Cron hit .262 in 2015 and .278 in 2016, and while his strikeout rate has jumped to 21.7 percent this year (he was at 17 percent last year), which is still not a terrible number for a guy with some pop. He's available in over 70 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues and is someone I like as an add to boost your offense down the stretch, provided he doesn't find his way into Scioscia's doghouse again.
  

Trevor Rosenthal had finally solidified himself as the Cardinals closer over the past three weeks, but he now finds himself on the DL with irritation in his right elbow after his velocity dropped in a game against the Red Sox this week. The Cardinals are awaiting results of an MRI, but there's a very real chance that Rosenthal won't be closing games again this year for the Cardinals, and with the team in the hunt in the NL Central, grabbing their closer for the final six weeks could be fantasy gold. The question becomes who to add among this bullpen. Manager Mike Matheny hasn't given much of an indication as to whom he would go to, and it sounds like a closer by committee could be in the cards (ugh, that was totally unintended!).

The initial name that pops into heads is that of the Final Boss, Seung Hwan Oh, who started the season as the Cardinals closer after an exceptional 2016 season. Oh has not been anywhere near the same pitcher, seeing a drop in his K Rate from 11.64 to 8.83, while his ERA has nearly doubled to 3.46. Oh has been coming on a bit, as after allowing three runs to St Louis on July 14th, Oh has only allowed one run over his last 11 innings while racking up a 13:0 K:BB ratio in that stretch. Of course, that was before he allowed two runs on Thursday night, pitching the ninth inning in a nonsave situation. I think Oh is the guy to grab right now, and if Rosenthal is deemed to be out long term, I would probably be pretty aggressive about it.

The other option in the Cardinals pen who's been pitching really well is the lefty Tyler Lyons. So far in 2017, Lyons has increased his strikeout rate to 10.89 K/9 while posting a 2.84 ERA over 38 innings. He has been particularly sharp lately, allowing no runs in his last 15 appearances, including a scoreless eighth inning Thursday night. Lyons hasn't displayed any lefty/righty splits this year, allowing righties to only slug .288 against him on the season. The lack of any splits could help Lyons get some save opportunities as Matheny will not feel like he cannot use him with a strong righties coming up. I think I would bet on Oh to get a majority of the chances since he has come around a bit, and he has done it before (managers do love that), but in deeper leagues, I like a speculative play on Lyons in case Oh hiccups at all in the role again.

Series of the Weekend

Brewers at Rockies. There is another Yankees – Red Sox series this weekend, but I think we have heard enough about that recently, so I'm going to switch to the NL for a series that should be fun and also has playoff implications. Everyone has assumed that the Cubs were going to run away with the NL Central, but here we are on August 17th and the Brewers are only one game back as they head into Coors for a weekend set.

The Brewers have won four straight ballgames, which they desperately needed, as it came on the heels of a six-game losing streak. Their offense has been ice cold as of late, as they sit 26th in MLB in team OPS since the All Star Break. They only have one regular, Ryan Braun, hitting over .300 since the break, and Domingo Santana has been particularly bad, hitting .211 with a massive 44 strikeouts in his last 109 at-bats. However, the best remedy for a cold offense is often a weekend in Denver. The Brewers also benefit from the return of Chase Anderson who is scheduled to make his first start since June 28th on Sunday. Coors is not the safe landing spot Anderson may have wanted coming off the DL, but the Brewers need him to pick up where he left off with a 2.89 ERA through his first 16 starts if they're going to hang with the Cubs in the NL Central.

The Rockies and Diamondbacks have been cruising along as the clear wild card leaders in the NL for the past couple months, but that one game matchup between the two is no longer a sure thing, as the Brewers have climbed to within 4.5 games, and the Cardinals are only five games back. The Rockies get a chance to build that lead back up with a head-to-head matchup against Milwaukee this weekend. The Rockies offense has been the opposite of the Brewers since the break as they lead baseball with a .846 team OPS. They feature two regulars with an OPS over 1.090 since the break in Nolan Arenado (although Arenado did leave Thursday with a hand injury) and Charlie Blackmon, and five of their starters are hitting over .300 in that stretch. Of course, the flip side of playing Coors is that their pitching staff has struggled recently, posting a team ERA of 5.04 in their last 29 games. However, their staff did get a big boost with the return of Chad Bettis on Tuesday who twirled an incredible seven shutout innings in his first MLB start since being diagnosed with testicular cancer last November. His start was a really awesome moment in this season, and I look forward to watching him take the hill again on Saturday. This should be a fun series with a ton of offense and a lot on the line for both these squads.