Regan's Rumblings: Planning for 2018

With fantasy football drafts now in full swing, I wonder whether many folks still read our baseball feature articles. I'm sure at least five people were reading Regan's Rumblings on a regular basis in March to prep for fantasy drafts, but my guess is that number has been cut by 60% as subscribers wonder how far to let Ezekiel Elliot fall before getting intrigued enough to pull the trigger. Anyway, this week I wanted to look toward 2018. In keeper leagues where you're not going to win or at least finish in the money, you should already be thinking about what moves you can make now to prepare for 2018. Whether that's trading expensive stars for young, cheap keepers and/or minor league talent, or breaking out your crystal ball to snatch a $1 reliever that could turn into a $1 closer next season, there are lots of things you can be doing NOW to set yourself up for 2018 and beyond. Here I'll look at a handful of players who, depending on how things transpire over the winter, should be cheap to acquire and who could provide a nice ROI next season.

Note: If there's someone not on here that you want me to cover, feel free to ask in the article comments below.

Archie Bradley, RP, ARI

The Diamondbacks already appear to have a bounty of potential rotation options headed into the winter, so while we haven't heard for sure that they've closed the door on a return of Bradley to the rotation, his success in his current role and the impeding free agency of closer Fernando Rodney likely keeps Bradley in the bullpen. Rodney is an impending free agent and given he turns 41 prior to the start of the season, it seems unlikely Arizona brings him back. That he's been able to pile up 27 saves despite a 4.81 ERA and 4.8 BB/9 is a testament to I suppose his resiliency. Rodney does still throw in the mid-90s, but unless the wants to return on another incentive-laden deal, look for Rodney to either retire or wind up elsewhere. Bradley would be the heavy favorite to close in that scenario, and he certainly has the credentials to be a top-10 closer: 1.33 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, and a 96.4 mph average fastball. Given Bradley is still just 24, the Diamondbacks could try and stretch him out next spring and put him in the rotation, but I don't see it. He has more fantasy appeal at this point as a reliever given his 2016 numbers in the rotation (5.02 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 92.4 mph average fast all).

Dansby Swanson, SS, ATL

After batting .302/.361/.442 in 38 games for the Braves last season, big things were expected from Swanson this year in his first full season. Instead he's hit just .220/.296/.327 while seeing time at Triple-A to figure things out. Back in Atlanta now, Swanson has shown some improvement lately, going 9-for-24 with a 5:6 K:BB in his last eight games, including five extra-base hits. It's obviously too early to write off the former #1 overall pick, just realize that he's not going to be Carlos Correa or Corey Seager at the dish. The 23-year-old should continue to fill out and develop and eventually I can see him as a consistent .280-.290 hitter with a high OBP and 12-15 home runs. Just expect some growing pains along the way, though even with his struggles this year, he's still walking at a solid 10% clip with a reasonable 22% K%.

Justin Wilson, RP, CHC

Unless they extend him (very possible), Wade Davis will be a free agent in October, giving the Cubs a gaping hole at closer for the second consecutive offseason. Wilson meanwhile is controllable through 2018, making him the top in-house candidate to succeed Davis. Wilson has scuffled since switching leagues, posting a 6.35 ERA with an ugly 5:9 (not reversed) K:BB in just 5.2 innings. Not exactly what the Cubs had in mind when the traded Jeimer Candelario to Detroit in the deal. Wilson though has plenty of time to turn things around, and given his 11.7 K/9 and 96.2 mph average fastball, he certainly has the stuff to close this season. The Cubs don't have much left in the farm system to trade for another closer, though it does seem likely they'll sign a guy like Addison Reed, perhaps Davis, or even Pat Neshek to compete with Wilson for the job. Either way, he's probably worth holding onto in keeper formats in case the offseason breaks in his favor and he winds up as the Cubs' closer.

Mike Minor, RP, KC

Kelvin Herrera is under team control through 2018, but with his $5.25 million salary likely to rise significantly despite a 4.02 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, he's a prime candidate to be traded this winter (Cubs?). The Royals also need to scrape together money to try and resign one or more of Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, and Eric Hosmer, so I think Herrera is gone. That would leave Joakim Soria, Brandon Maurer, and Minor as the top in-house candidates to take over the ninth inning. The Royals may prefer Minor's left arm in a setup role, but he's easily been the team's top reliever. In 60 innings, Minor has a 2.85 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with excellent ratios – 9.9 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. He's gained close to four mph on his fastball (94.1 mph average) with the move from the rotation to the bullpen and he's cut his HR rate by more than half to 0.60 per nine innings. Minor has allowed seven runs in his last 11.2 innings, so perhaps he's tiring a bit, but don't write him off as a potential 2018 closer option.

Kaleb Cowart, 2B/3B, LAA

The Angels' farm system hasn't exactly been bursting with young talent recently, but don't give up on Cowart just yet. The 25-year-old hit .311/.383/.482 in Triple-A before faring pretty well with the Angels at .266/.329/.453 in 71 plate appearances split between second and third base. He also improved his Triple-A ratios year over year – K% from 21.9% to 17.7% and BB% from 8.1% to 10.7%, so I'm not quite ready to apply the "bust" label. That said, the Angels will finally be done paying Josh Hamilton after this year, so they should have some money to spend. Where they choose to allocate those resources could depend on how guys like Cowart and C.J. Cron finish the year, but he opportunity could be there for Cowart to grab a starting job in 2018.

Alex Verdugo, OF, LAD

The Dodgers have been very hesitant to consider any deal involving Verdugo, and while that could certainly change in the offseason, I think Verdugo sticks around and wins a starting job in 2018, perhaps as early as Opening Day. The outfield does appear to be a bit crowded, but that should be resolved in the offseason, whether it be a trade involving Joc Pederson, or perhaps moving Chris Taylor to second base and dealing Logan Forsythe. Verdugo is batting .318/.391/.444, and while he has managed just six home runs, half of them have come since July 25, so the power looks to be still developing. A left-handed swinger, Verdugo's OPS versus southpaws is just 10 points lower than his OPS versus RHP, so this isn't a platoon player. To me, Verdugo looks like the ideal #2 hitter or even, given his plate discipline, a leadoff guy in a very potent lineup.

Trevor Hildenberger, RP, MIN

The Twins' bullpen ranks 23rd in the league with a 4.72 ERA, so this is an area that should get some attention (and money) over the winter. As you know however, the Twins aren't exactly known as big spenders in free agency, so don't expect a guy like Wade Davis to be brought in. They'll bring in some veteran relievers and likely open the closer role to competition, but the top in-house guy right now for 2018 is probably Hildenberger. In 25 innings, Hildenberger has a 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with an excellent 27:3 K:BB. He also had a 2.05 ERA in Triple-A, and last year, a 0.70 mark in Double-A. The only risk factor? A fastball that averages just 88.4 mph. With a lack of top-end stuff, things could turn south quickly for Hildenberger, but he's performed very well and met all challenges the last couple years, so perhaps we shouldn't discount him because he's not hitting triple digits. Hildenberger may or may not lead the Twins in saves next year, but I'll take my chances with him over the likes of Matt Belisle, Glen Perkins, and Taylor Rogers.

Wilmer Flores, 1B/2B/3B, NYM

Could 2018 be the year that the 26-year-old (seems older) Flores finally has a regular job on Opening Day? It's possible. It's hard to imagine Jose Reyes coming back, and Asdrubal Cabrera could also have his 2018 option declined by the team. David Wright (back) may never play again, and even Dominic Smith may not prove ready for the first base job on Opening Day. That could lead the Mets to finally finding a permanent home for Flores, though they also may just like him as a super-utility guy. Flores is batting .278/.316/.488 with 15 home runs in 295 at-bats. Give him regular playing time and perhaps Flores becomes a 30-home run guy. Unfortunately, his BB% has regressed some this year (from 6.9% to 5.3% year over year), but Flores could thrive as a regular, knowing that he's going to get consistent at-bats at one position for a change. After all, this is still the same guy who hit .321/.357/.531 as a 21-year-old in Triple-A back in 2013.

Greg Bird, 1B, NYY

With just 60 big league at-bats since 2015 due to shoulder and ankle injuries, Bird may have fallen off a lot of owners' radars. He now appears on the verge of a return to the Yankees, though how much he'll play has yet to become clear. The Yankees are currently using a combination of Chase Headley, Todd Frazier, and Tyler Austin, so given Bird is 8-for-17 with two home runs in his minor league rehab assignment, he could see regular at-bats sooner rather than later. I do still think Bird is the Yankees' first baseman of the future and hopefully his injuries are finally behind him. He may strike out a lot, but Bird has legitimate 30-homer power.

Dustin Fowler, OF, OAK

Fowler is obviously best-known for the knee injury he suffered earlier in the season, but he's looking like he'll be ready to go for the start of spring training, so keep his name in mind. Fowler hit a solid .293/.329/.542 in 313 plate appearances in Triple-A earlier this year, including 13 home runs and 13 stolen bases. He also swiped a total of 55 bases the previous two years, so the fantasy appeal is obvious. It would be best for his fantasy value if Fowler were leading off, but given his minor league BB% has hovered in the 5% range fairly consistently, he's probably not going to start his big league career at the top of the lineup. Fowler has a great chance to win a starting job next spring barring any setbacks with the knee.

J.P. Crawford, SS, PHI

Batting just .194/.313/.252 with two home runs and two steals through June 10, Crawford hit the disabled list with a groin injury and emerged 10 days later as a completely different player. From the date he returned on June 20 until now, Crawford has hit .290/.384/.548 with nine home runs and two stolen bases in virtually the same number of games (57). We'd love to see him run a bit more, but Crawford still profiles as a potential leadoff man given his elite ratios – 13% career BB% and 14.3% K%. He's starting to profile as a .380 OBP / 15 HR / 15 SB guy in his prime, with the possibility of further power development. Crawford is starting to get his feet wet at third base in Triple-A, giving him some positional flexibility should the Phillies bring him up on September 1, which seems likely.

Alex Reyes, SP, STL

Reyes of course is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery back in February, but his rehab is reportedly going well enough that he's expected to compete in at least a portion of spring training. It seems likely that the Cardinals will exercise caution and have Reyes build up his arm strength in the minors to open the season, but come May he could be a rotation fixture. Whether that's worth a keeper slot depends on your league's format, but Reyes was recently considered baseball's #1 pitching prospect, and despite the surgery, he's still right up there with the likes of Brent Honeywell and Michael Kopech. Reyes posted a 1.57 ERA and 11.7 K/9 in 46 big league innings last year, though his control issues persisted with a 4.5 BB/9. It will be interesting to see if he makes headway on that part of his game in 2018, but very few prospects can be said to have top-of-the-rotation upside, and he is one of those few.