Mound Musings: I Was Born a Ramblin’ Man

At this point in the season, I like to ramble just a bit and lightly hit on some topics that didn't really get covered in previous columns. What happened that was expected, but perhaps more importantly, what happened in 2017 that was very surprising? With just a couple more weeks of the Musings coming up, next week I'll hand out my pitching awards for 2017 including the biggest surprise, the biggest disappointment, my choice for starter of the year and reliever of the year. The following week we'll close out things with my annual "Kids on Parade" column highlighting the best young arms on their way to the show. That said, let's get to it:

"His stuff isn't good enough to win by throwing strikes" – A good many years ago, I read this quote from a prominent baseball mind (I'm sorry, I can't recall who), and it has always stuck with me. Keep in mind that there is such a thing as throwing too many strikes, particularly if the pitcher has rather pedestrian stuff. That's because there are various levels of "strikes" – heart of the plate, on the black, high strikes, low strikes, and, maybe most importantly, balls that look like strikes (the opposite of "easy" takes).

When watching a pitcher, especially one without overwhelming stuff, make note of how many pitches fool the hitters. If hitters routinely swing at balls out of the strike zone, there's a decent chance that pitcher will succeed. If the batters swing at pitches in the dirt – note, not just now and then, but consistently – the pitcher is successfully making his deliveries look like strikes, even when they're out of the zone. It's hard enough to hit strikes. Just be aware, a pitcher needs to be capable of doing this even after hitters have become familiar with his motion. Deception is useful, too, but it rarely lasts.

The changing face of MLB pitching staffs – It wasn't all that long ago that quality starters often topped 300 innings pitched in a season. If they pitched reasonably well, they typically generated what we know today as a "quality" start. In some leagues, quality starts are a counting stat, but for how long?

I have always been something of a mild advocate for counting quality starts, simply because wins don't always coincide with pitching well. If your team can't score, you may find wins hard to come by, while a pitcher with a 5.00 ERA can collect quite a few W's if he pitches for an offensive juggernaut. I have, however, never been outspoken about it for a couple of reasons. First, winning is what the sport is all about, however it happens, and those quality innings do usually help with the traditional categories of WHIP and ERA, while those ugly high-ERA wins typically hurt those categories.

But now, completing six innings, a prerequisite for a quality start, isn't a given. Last season, 16 pitchers tossed 200 or more innings – a drop in the bucket compared to maybe 30 years ago. Halfway through September, not one pitcher has surpassed 200 innings, and only seven or eight are on pace to do so. With a normal workload, that means only a tiny handful of starting pitchers will average six innings per start.

Whether we live in an age of specialization – very deep bullpens with roles intended to "shorten" games – or an age of injury – disabled lists overflow with starting pitchers, often the pitchers fantasy owners depend on most – building a winning fantasy mound corps has become increasingly difficult. What's the answer in the fantasy game? I think depth will become steadily more important. Readers will recall my discussions regarding the "do no harm" principle where middle and back-of-the rotation pitchers who won't cause catastrophic harm to ratios will be extremely valuable. That will be a key focus of the Musings next season if the current trends continue (very likely).

The toughest month of the year – Perhaps the most difficult month of the season, September presents so many challenges for fantasy owners. Some teams have fallen out of contention for postseason play, and some teams are comfortably leading their divisions and don't need to push, leaving a select few still actively competing for a shot in October. Given the impact on playing time (and focus), the status of the team can be difficult for you to manage depending on your roster.

Let me illustrate. Is there a sprinkling of Nationals on your team? Last Sunday, with their division in hand, they had just one regular position player in their lineup (Trea Turner), and they gave regular closer (Sean Doolittle) the day off as well. The team still won, thanks to Turner and starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg – and despite a nearly blown save – but contributions to fantasy owners were pretty scarce. This is a fairly frequent occurrence for struggling teams looking to audition a lot of kids for the future.

If you are well-placed in your league standings, there's a pretty good chance you have a Dodgers player or two on your roster. Through early August, the Dodgers were widely proclaimed, "the best team in baseball" and almost all of their everyday players were helping their fantasy teams. Unfortunately, the Dodgers have lost 16 of their last 18 games, including an 11-game losing streak – something the franchise hasn't endured since their days in Brooklyn. They haven't been hitting, their pitching has been erratic, and the overall fantasy contribution has been virtually nonexistent.

Of course, there is the flip side of the coin. If you own some Indians or Diamondbacks, they have been among the hottest commodities in the game. Cleveland pitchers have allowed just 35 total runs (the offense has done its part with 41 home runs) and logged seven shutouts during their 21-game winning streak, while J.D. Martinez has been a windfall for few fantasy team offenses. The problem is, building your roster to maximize playing time and production in September is almost impossible.

That's why I normally target July and early August for making moves – both on my roster and in the fantasy league standings. Like a front-running racehorse, my goal is to have an insurmountable lead at the head of the stretch! Something to consider.

Roster churning can be an invitation to frustration – When I first started playing fantasy baseball, I was a roster churner. For some reason, I felt disengaged if I wasn't constantly making roster moves. However, I gradually learned that nothing was more frustrating than watching a guy I was high on in March, driving an opponent's team upward in the standings in May, after I had cut him in April. Don't get me wrong, you should always be seeking ways to improve your team. Just be sure the player you plan to cut is being replaced by an ongoing improvement, rather than a replacement based on a possible short-term slump victim. Some would say I am overly patient, but over the years, I can honestly say most of my best moves were those I didn't make.

There you have it – a few rambling thoughts on what to watch for, things to think about, and sometimes overlooked factors when evaluating pitching for fantasy teams.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• I have often mentioned the Diamondbacks' Robbie Ray, a mid-rotation gem, and I'm going to mention him again here. Since returning from the disabled list he has pitched like a true ace. He's been nearly untouchable with 45 strikeouts and just six walks over 25 very strong innings since rejoining the rotation.

• I was disappointed to hear that the Angels' Alex Meyer will require surgery to repair a partially torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. He was showing signs of finally getting his mechanics fine tuned, but the recovery time for this type of procedure is about 12 months, which effectively takes him out for next season.

• After watching his last start, I think there's a good chance that San Francisco's Johnny Cueto still is not completely healthy, but I love watching him work. He's pitching for a bad team with nothing to play for, yet he really bears down and gives it everything. I'd like to see him feeling good heading into next season.

• One of my candidates for a breakout year in 2018, Carlos Rodon of the White Sox has been ruled out for the rest of this season. He missed much of the early year with bursitis in his shoulder, and now he's dealing with inflammation in that same shoulder. He's loaded with talent, but shoulder woes make him risky.

• The Rockies' Jon Gray has such an electric arm. And, interestingly, he has put up better numbers at Coors Field than on the road this year. That's no easy feat. He's still learning to pitch, and tends to overthrow his breaking pitches, but he could develop into that rare commodity, a fantasy asset pitching in Colorado.

• Earlier this week the Indians broke the American League record for consecutive wins established by the 2002 Oakland A's. Certainly a huge part of that surging team is Corey Kluber. In nine August-September starts, he is 8-1 while notching a quality start in eight of the nine outings – and it was not the loss.
  

The Cardinals decided they weren't completely comfortable with Seung Hwan Oh and Tyler Lyons finishing games, so they brought in Juan Nicasio. I'm not sure he's a better option, but it looks like he'll get most of the save chances for now. Blue Jays' closer, Roberto Osuna, has been dealing with neck stiffness and then left the team to be present for the birth of his child, but they hope he'll be back for the weekend series. In his absence, Ryan Tepera struggled, but Dominic Leone looked strong. The Royals are seemingly mixing and matching with Kelvin Herrera currently struggling. Lefty Scott Alexander and righty Brandon Maurer are each receiving chances. The Marlins have finally been pushed into at least trying Kyle Barraclough as their closer with Brad Ziegler unavailable. It hasn't gone too well. If Barraclough doesn't cut it, there will be questions to be answered next year. With the Indians epic winning streak, it's not too surprising that closer Cody Allen already has five saves and a win this month.