The Z Files: Making My Pitch For KDS Draft Slots

One of the attractions of the NFBC is incorporating the Kentucky Derby System (KDS) into draft order. Each participant lists their draft spot preferences. Teams are drawn randomly, but instead of the first team being assigned the first overall pick, they get their first KDS listing. This continues until all the spots are accounted for.

Everyone has different processes for setting their KDS. For 2018 drafts, my plan for pitching is paramount. While every fantasy sport has unique nuances, there isn't anything more challenging in any format than assembling a pitching staff in rotisserie-style fantasy baseball. None. It isn't even close. Not only must one consider the harmony between hitting and pitching, there are conundrums such as ratios versus wins and strikeouts. How one handles saves is also integral.

I'm a firm believer in, "Your team, your call.", but it doesn't hurt to be aware of how others approach their draft. To that end, I like to look at the manner in which league champions constructed their fantasy staff. Obviously, there's more than one way to skin the proverbial cat, but finding a common denominator, then weaving that into my own game plan, usually serves me well.

Most of the data I'll present is from the NFBC Main Event, this year composed of 32 15-team draft leagues with an overall champion. Some will be from the singular, high-stakes leagues.

At the end of each season, NFBC founder Greg Ambrosius highlights all the league winners, sharing their first few picks or most expensive auction purchases. Of the 13 teams featured, nine had one of Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale or Corey Kluber.

Next, I went through the 32 Main Event victors, identifying the first pitcher selected. Here are the results:

Twenty league winners took a hurler with one of their first two picks. As convincing as that seems, keep in mind, each season is different. That said, this has been a common theme in the NFBC for the past few years. I don't know if this season's results had a greater influence from ace pitching, but it's something I'll investigate in the offseason.

For those curious, the most common names dotting the other dozen rosters were Stephen Strasburg, Jacob deGrom and Luis Severino. As you likely imagine, Severino was often also on a roster with one of the above six hurlers.

Rob Silver, 2016 NFBC Main Event overall champion, tweeted a five-year history of what it takes to win the Main Event. While I'm not a fan of drafting towards targets (a story for another day), there are some interesting trends. As you'd expect, homers, runs, RBI are up while steals are down. Batting average is flat, which deserves some attention, but that too will be saved for a later date.

On the pitching side, ERA and WHIP have ballooned, no surprise there. Wins are down a tad while strikeouts are stable. Saves dropped.

Intuitively, shouldn't strikeouts be up in concert with the rise in league-wide whiffs? The reasons I suspect strikeouts haven't changed is the average innings pitched per start is lessening, along with fantasy managers deploying more middle relievers to manage ratios. This is easy to test by looking at the team innings in each league. Add this to my Todd-do list.

Another study on the docket is researching the decrease in saves. I took a preliminary look around the All-Star break but will really dig in during the coming months.

Tying Rob's data with that above, the balance between competing in ratios and strikeouts stands out. The beauty of this is everyone can interpret information in their own way, but from where I sit, the best pathway to landing high in ratios and punchouts is with an ace. Obviously, doing this without sacrificing hitting is the key. But, if you want an ace, you need to draft an ace.

Does this mean my 2018 cheat sheet will have Kershaw, Scherzer, Sale and Kluber as the first four picks in some order, or that I'll take a pitcher first, regardless of draft spot? No, it doesn't.

Keep in mind, one of the reasons Sale and Kluber were on 13 of 32 NFBC league champs was they were likely second-round selections, after the team took a bat. They'll both have an earlier ADP in 2018, but obviously won't be the among the first four picks, so drafting one with a top bat is still in play.

The real utility of one of these aces isn't just the numbers they provide, but how they buffer the rest of the staff. This is especially true this season, with so much disappointing pitching in the second and third tiers (along with injuries) requiring back-filling with inferior quality arms. Honestly, I feel this is the chief reason 20 of 32 teams won with one of the Big Four. They were better set up to absorb the junk.

So, how does this shape my early approach to pitching in NFBC leagues? The first consideration is how will pitching in 2018 differ, if any, from this past season? Will injuries continue to be high? Will homers remain elevated? How should pitchers with a huge spike in homers be evaluated? What about those that gave up a ton of dingers over the first half, then seemed to figure something out later?

Unfortunately, my crystal ball broke years ago and its replacement remains on back order. My best guess is injuries will always be a factor while some pitchers adjust and successfully combat the power jump, at least relative to the field. Whether I'm able to identify those that do will be the ultimate factor.

The next consideration is how to handle the ratio/strikeout equilibrium. My sense is high-strikeout middle relievers will reenter the NFBC inventory. With dropping ratios, the recent trend has been relying on streaming back-end pitchers. My guess is this is eschewed for greater implementation of the multi-inning reliever. This helps ratios, but costs whiffs… unless you anchor your staff with one of the Big Four. It's not just the ratio sink offered by Kershaw, Scherzer, Sale and Kluber, it's the huge delta in strikeouts they provide relative to the field, allowing you to crush that in tandem with ratios.

With this in mind, the ideal drafting spot in a 15-team league is the 10-13 range. This virtually insures drafting an ace, pairing him with a top stick.

While the NFBC lets you request draft spots, there's no guarantee you get what you want, or even one of your initial five. Despite all the evidence pointing to winning teams starting with an ace, I'm not passing on Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, Paul Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado. That means if I'm picking fifth and that quartet is off the board, I'll take a pitcher. I haven't decided if it's Kershaw or one of the others, but unless deeper research demonstrates otherwise, I'm buying into the notion a stud in the first two rounds is the optimal course. I'm still ruminating whether I want one of those four bats more than starting my team with a pitcher at 1.05, so that part of my KDS is subject to change.

So here it is, my current NFBC KDS preferences:

13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7 (for sure)

Followed by, as of now…

4, 3, 2, 1, 14, 15, 6, 5