The Z Files: The Ohtani Dilemma

There are a few logical options to consider:

1. Pitcher (or hitter) only
2. Two players: one a hitter, one a pitcher, owned and managed separately
3. One player, one owner, eligible at either hitter or pitcher each period

I'm leaving out the option allowing the same owner to accrue both hitting and pitching stats the same week. I'm sure someone will push for it, but it's a tiny contingent.

Derek Van Riper and I discussed Ohtani on a recent podcast. Afterwards, DVR posted a Twitter poll with the aforementioned choices. The third choice was the majority winner, garnering 60 percent of the vote.

Regardless of what you and your leaguemates want to do, keep in mind you may be at the mercy of your commissioner service. Despite the fact that some people are assuming all options will be offered, there are complications with the coding for each. Some sites will offer flexibility, others will be more stringent and dictate how their leagues can use Ohtani. The sooner you start the discourse with your league, the better the chance of landing with a site able to accommodate your league's wishes. To reiterate, many are under the impression all the options will be available, figuring "How hard can it be?" Please trust me, I'm not saying the coding is impossible; I'm just saying it isn't cut and dried. There needs to be cooperation between the stat stream and the scoring service, coordinating ID numbers among other coding issues.

Another popular argument against over-thinking the issue is, how much will Ohtani's MLB club actually allow him to hit? To be honest, I usually leave this sort of thing to others, but since my opinion is a bit against the grain, I'll share it – though it's not so much what I think his team will do as much as it is what I would do. In short, I'm signing Ohtani solely as a pitcher. If I'm a National League club, he bats like any other pitcher, but he doesn't start in the outfield, or at designated hitter in the American League.

As I'll demonstrate in a bit, Ohtani has a better chance being a difference maker from the mound. I want him focusing solely on his craft as a starter. I don't care about extending my roster; Ohtani can't help if he's on the disabled list. Pitchers are already a greater injury risk than position players. I don't want to add in the potential of jamming his hand while sliding or getting hit by a pitch. Not to mention, subject him to running where he can pull a hamstring or sprain an ankle. Speaking of which, there's precedence for that concern as Ohtani hurt his ankle running the bases in the Japan Series in October 2016. He subsequently missed the 2017 World Baseball Classic along with starting only four games this past season. For what it's worth, Ohtani had surgery on the ankle this past October and is expected to be 100 percent in the spring.

Economics has nothing to do with it. In fact, the money saved compared to paying a salary commensurate with a veteran pitcher of his talent can be used to fortify hitting, so I don't need Ohtani's stick. I know this takes me out of the sweepstakes, but that's fine. Long-term, I expect Ohtani to be a front-end rotation staple. I'm already incurring the risk inherent to all pitchers, and I don't want to embellish that. My team is constructed with Ohtani as a major part of the rotation. Losing him would be a huge blow. Availing even more chances to miss time doesn't makes sense.

Obviously, this semi-hot take is moot. To sign the 23-year-old phenom, someone is going to commit to Ohtani the hitter. As such, I'll put my projection hat on and run him through the little black box. Please realize these are my own projections and not the official site projection. Jeff Erickson is handling those.

The first consideration for Ohtani the pitcher is that he only worked 25.1 innings last season. Keeping in mind he averaged 155.1 frames for the Nippon Ham Fighters from 2014-2016, his age 19-21 seasons, how many innings should he be projected to toss? Expecting something in the 150 to 160 range feels optimistic. That's where I had him in my initial projection set, but I'm dropping him to 125. Even that seems aggressive, but it puts him in position to ramp up to 170 or so in 2019.

As an aside, since I won't be consulted, there's a good chance his club keeps Ohtani busy during the extended stretches they rests his arm (weeks or months, not days). Actually, that may be the best compromise. Agree to let Ohtani be a two-way player this season while his arm strength is built back up, and maybe into 2019. But, in 2020, tell him he's strictly a hurler. I know, he won't agree to that either.
Even though no one has been as young as Ohtani when they transitioned to MLB, I used my standard translation for players coming over from the Japan Pacific League, something a little better than the MLE (Major League Equivalency) for Triple-A. Because it's a translation, it bakes in the effects of the slight difference in baseballs, the longer MLB season with much more travel and the five-man rotation versus pitching once a week.

My engine boils everything down to a park-neutral projection. I then add the team and the numbers adjust accordingly. As such, I'll present Ohtani's neutral projection, along with those for the most rumored destinations. Included for reference is Ohtani's past three seasons in Japan.

By means of comparison, three of the closest neutral comps are Jacob deGrom, Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta. Of course, Ohtani's innings should fall well short of that trio, but you can see the potential. Remember, Ohtani is only 23, while the others are in the prime of their careers. That is, if Ohtani stays healthy, he could jump to ace level quickly.

Now let's think about Ohtani the hitter. If allowed to hit, it won't be every day. Let's say he averages ten plate appearances a week, then give him 50 more assuming his club will shut him down at some point to control innings. That's about 300 plate appearances. From 2014 through 2016, he garnered 234, 119 and 382, so 300 seems plausible. Here's his hitting projections with the same prospective squads, along with his three-year hitting numbers.

Digging into the numbers, Ohtani made a huge leap in 2016, sustaining it last season. That said, in 2016, he fanned 26 percent of the time, sporting a .394 BABIP. Last season, it was 27 percent and .440. The strikeout pace isn't alarming, especially for someone so young, but the hit rates certainly will regress. For the record, I set a neutral BABIP of .333, which is still well above league average. To be honest, we don't know where his BABIP will land, it's a crapshoot.

Some will no doubt argue 2014 is such an outlier, it should be removed from the translation. Doing so obviously changes things, but not as much as you might think. The weighted average I employ is 11/7/4, so 2014 only accounts for 18 percent. The neutral slash line becomes .249/.317/.431 – better, but not enough to move the needle.

Obviously, Ohtani is still young, and the apropos comparison for future potential would be established hitters with similar numbers at his age, but for the 2018 season, he's basically Sean Rodriguez. Well, at least that's what the translation portends.

I'm sure I'll fine tune these expectations once Ohtani signs and his role crystalizes. Not to mention, we should be getting updates on his rehab from ankle surgery.

The original intent wasn't to convince you Ohtani should only be allowed to pitch, but that's the direction it took, so I'll close with this thought. Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, why should a club endanger a future top-of-the-rotation arm by letting him produce hitting contributions akin to Sean Rodriguez? Why not pitch him every fifth or sixth day and trade for Rodriguez?

I rest my case.