Collette Calls: NL Central Bold Predictions

Javier Baez finishes outside of the Top 150. His NFBC ADP is 102, which is what I am basing this prediction off, rather than his 72nd ranking in our projections. My overall point is that I think he disappoints, but I am not going way out on the limb and saying he will fall that far down the line because better bold predictions are reality based.

The StatCast database tells us that 183 batters had at least 400 at-bats in 2017, and of those 183 players Baez had the 11th largest negative differential between his actual wOBA and his expected (xwOBA) weighted on-base average. There was a 53-point difference between his actual .339 wOBA and his .286 xwOBA. The StatCast primer explains xwOBA, but in a shorter format, it uses the data from exit velocity and launch angle while removing defense from the equation. Batters, and pitchers, can influence exit velocity and launch angle but lose complete control of the equation once the bat makes contact with the ball.

Baez's average exit velocity in 2017 was in the bottom 50 percent of all qualified players at 86.8 mph as was his average launch angle of 9.3 percent. 2016 and 2017 were nearly identical seasons regarding batting average and on-base percentage for Baez, but that is where the data gets interesting:

For one, there is the fact Morrow has struggled with health in recent years. The shoulder surgery after the 2014 season was the biggest one and getting hit with Valley Fever during that rehab certainly did not help. He has not pitched more than 55 innings since the 2012 season and is coming off a postseason in which he worked every game and probably even threw simulated outings in his sleep out of habit.

There is little to argue with at a skills level because the strikeouts are there, he doesn't allow walks and he did not even allow a regular-season home run in 2017. The latter will certainly change in 2018, but he was not "lucky" in his performance last year as it was downright dominant. That said, I am looking to grab a share or two of Steve Cishek as an insurance policy until Carl Edwards Jr. gets better command of his fastball.

Cincinnati Reds

Scott Schebler repeats his 30-homer season and then some: I have highlighted the portion of Schebler's 2017 slugging percentage for a particular reason.

He dove for a batted ball against Atlanta on June 3 (where the highlight begins) and took some anti-inflammatory injections a couple days later. However, by his own admission, he rushed his recovery process, and it showed in the plunging power before he finally hit the disabled list in late July. Once he returned, he eventually regained his power stroke and got to 30 homers when he was pacing for close to 40 before the injury. His average exit velocity was in the top 75 for all batters with at least 200 plate appearances, and he plays in a park that is 23 percent above the league average for left-handed homers. Yes, he has to look over his shoulder for Jesse Winker, but the shoulder injury wrecked what could have been one of the more surprising pushes for 40 homers this side of Logan Morrison. No projection system has him repeating his 30-homer season, but I believe there is a real chance he does and hits at least 35 homers.

Luis Castillo finishes the season as a top-16 starting pitcher. Our projections have him as SP 28, but hear me out. If you have not yet watched Castillo pitch a full game, you need to put that on your schedule ASAP because the numbers do him no justice. He has three major league pitches, four if you count both of his fastballs, and generates a plethora of groundballs when batters make contact. He does not yet have a full season of major league pitching under his belt because the Marlins are, well, the Marlins. They first received Castillo when they sent the fossil of Casey McGehee to the Giants in 2014. The Marlins then tried to trade that gift to the Padres but fortunately had him returned due to the shenanigans surrounding Colin Rea's health. The Marlins were hellbent on trading him and eventually sent him to the Reds before last season to acquire Dan Straily. Oops.

Castillo's xwOBA, as a rookie, was .253. To put that in proper context, here are some other xwOBA's from last season:

•Clayton Kershaw - .253
•Chris Sale - .246
•James Paxton - .255
•Corey Kluber - .244

The only true thing holding Castillo back is the team he plays for because if he played for a contender, he would be a legitimate top-10 starting pitcher, as the wins would not be as risky. Doug Dennis of BaseballHQ and noted Reds fan took Castillo 85th overall in the Draft and Hold we are both in, making Castillo the 22nd starting pitcher off the board. Had Doug not made that pick, I would have because I am a big believer in this kid's stuff.

Milwaukee Brewers

This prediction may be my craziest bold prediction this year, but I said this earlier this week, so I will also put it here for the record as my World Series prediction:

Brewers over Angels in 6 https://t.co/612vkzg8Jg

— Jason Collette (@jasoncollette) February 6, 2018

Yelich hit 33 flyballs at home last season, nearly matching his total of 36 from the previous two seasons. The spray chart for those flyballs at Marlins Stadium looked like this:

Now, if we take that same spray chart and put them in the Miller Park dimensions, we get:

Yelich has shown more opposite-field power in his career with his swing as he rarely yanks pull shots, but now that the gap in right-center field is 18 feet closer, maybe he adjusts his swing. Even if he does not, the opposite field gap just got 13 feet closer too. It is not unusual for players to flip the switch into launch mode from one season to the next as the likes of Yonder Alonso and Logan Morrison showed us just last season. Throw in nine road games in Wrigley Field (plus-22 percent for LHB HR), Great American Ballpark (plus-23 percent for LHB HR), and the new home park and the path to 30 homers does not look like a pipe dream.

Jhoulys Chacin leads the staff in R$: This is an easier call to make because, to date, this is the biggest starting pitcher addition the club has made this offseason, and Jimmy Nelson is not going to pitch the complete season. The path for hidden success here is something we saw last year with Chase Anderson and how the Brewers moved him around on the pitching rubber, which allowed him to reduce his big splits so that righties did not hit him as easily as they had in previous seasons.

Chacin has the opposite issue where his repertoire has done a good job of keeping righties at bay, but has struggled to do the same with lefties and has mostly pitched from the same spot on the rubber. Chacin has a changeup, but has only thrown it 11 percent of the time against the lefties and has mostly maintained the fastball/breaking ball approach he uses against righties. There are two paths forward for Chacin — improve the changeup or change where the pitches are going. Most of what Chacin throws to lefties is out over the plate:

It would seem logical to take Chacin and push him to the first base side of the rubber against lefties and let his slider start on the plate and then fade out while allowing his fastball to ride in or down, depending on which one he throws. Look at how the shift altered where Chase Anderson threw to righties in 2016 vs 2017:

The shift allowed Anderson to get his pitches in more against righties and he lowered his wOBA against them 103 points in 2017 from 2016. If Milwaukee tries a similar approach with Chacin, it could squeeze more value out of him and allow you to do the same for a guy we have as an SP 95.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Colin Moran hits 25 homers: Moran's highest single-season total came last year in Triple-A when he hit 18 homers in 338 plate appearances. His previous season high was 10, but that was before he made changes to his swing to help him tap into his hidden raw power. Moran may lose playing time to David Freese because of defensive issues, but the Pirates targeted Moran in the Gerrit Cole trade for a reason and that's not to sit him on the bench. Should the Pirates deal Josh Harrison before the season, concerns about playing time disappear and give this prediction a higher probability. Josh Bell made a similar statistical jump last year as playing time increased, and he finally settled on a swing that allowed him to take more advantage of his raw power. Moran seems well-positioned to follow the path Bell did last year from the opposite side of the plate and diamond despite the lack of even a decent major league sample size.

Joe Musgrove leads the Pirates starters in R$: Our current projections have Musgrove as the fourth-best starter on the team behind Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova and Tervor Williams. I wrote quite a bit about why I liked Musgrove earlier this year and stick by that. I am also further encouraged by talking to FanGraphs' Eno Sarris recently about Musgrove. Sarris said he spoke with Musgrove during the postseason and that the pitcher stated the increased velocity was not just a byproduct of the move to the bullpen and that he had made some mechanical adjustments during his mid-summer demotion.

Sure enough, the data from BrooksBaseball supports that assertion:

St. Louis Cardinals

Jose Martinez finishes as a top-15 first baseman: #CardinalsDevilMagic struck against last season as they found Martinez in obscurity, and he was rather productive as a first baseman and outfielder in part-time duty. I mean, if the fact he outslugged Miguel Cabrera by 118 points is not proof that #CardinalsDevilMagic is a real thing, I do not know what is. The scary thing is that the xwOBA leaderboard back up this Cinderella story out of nowhere:

2017 xwOBA Leaderboard (Min 200 AB):

•Aaron Judge - .444
•Joey Votto - .423
•Mike Trout - .420
•J.D. Martinez - .418
•Jose Martinez - .404

This may have gotten more traction had Rhys Hoskins (.399 xwOBA) and Matt Olson (.380 xwOBA) not dominated the headlines down the stretch. His splits show him as a mere mortal against righties (.334 wOBA) but a superhero against lefties (.539 wOBA) albeit in just 69 plate appearances. Neither split has a significant sample size, but what Martinez did in 2017 was much like what Justin Bour did in 2015 when his power numbers surprised many. Martinez should get a majority of the playing time at first base unless the club makes a late acquisition to give them a more established option at the corner. Given his newfound dedication to avoiding groundballs, this looks devilishly real.

Luke Weaver does not finish as a top-50 starting pitcher: Our site ranking has him 39th on the board (as does NFBC ADP), so a 20 percent drop in final rankings is bold enough for me.
This prediction is based off two angles from two guys whose opinion I hold in high value.

ESPN's Derek Carty made the following observation on Twitter last month that concerned me:

I love Luke Weaver, legit number-two starter, but I will always see this as a red flag. Scout School taught us how dramatically adding mass can disrupt your muscle memory and mechanics and lead to injury. Case in point: Noah Syndergaardhttps://t.co/QqIbpDkce4

— Derek Carty (@DerekCarty) January 15, 2018

This is how Weaver compares to other starting pitchers last year with similar swinging strike rates: