This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
We're still moving through the unusual early part of the MLB schedule, which opens up a five-game day slate and leaves a nine-game evening slate.
The focus of this piece is the evening block of games.
With Clayton Kershaw taking the ball for the second time in 2018, the first question is simple: To Kershaw, or not to Kershaw at $11,500?
The price is still very fair compared to a typical midseason peak-form Kershaw price, which can reach $13,000. With the use of the humidor at Chase Field, the first series of the season between the Rockies and Diamondbacks averaged a combined 10 runs scored per game. Of course, a three-game sample means nothing as far as the impact of the humidor. In 12 career starts at Chase Field, Kershaw is 5-7 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.238 WHIP and 91:27 K:BB. More importantly, the D-backs struggled against southpaws last season (74 wRC+), striking out a lot in the process (25.8% K%).
The only viable pivot is Justin Verlander ($10,300), whose home matchup against the Orioles is more favorable in terms of run environment and potentially, the quality of the opposing lineup.
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Pitcher
Justin Verlander, HOU vs. BAL ($10,300) -- For cash games in particular, saving the $1,200 compared to the price of Kershaw in order to have an upgrade or two elsewhere in the lineup is worth it with a wide range of low-end arms taking the ball Tuesday night. The Astros are a -265 favorite with Mike Wright starting for the Orioles, and by comparison Kershaw and the Dodgers are minus -180 favorites on the road against Zack Godley, who likely falls inside the top-five of most projection systems for the 18 starters on the slate. Verlander picked up right where he left off at the end of 2017 in his season debut, firing six scoreless innings in a 49-point effort against the Rangers at Arlington on Opening Day.
Also consider: Clayton Kershaw at LAD ($11,500)
GPP Fade: Matt Harvey vs. PHI ($7,000) -- As of Tuesday morning, the conditions throughout the day at Citi Field look wet. This is merely a caution against setting an early lineup with Harvey as your pitcher and not tracking the weather closer to lock tonight. Harvey was touching 96 mph in early March in shorter starts, so it will be interesting to see where his velo readings sit over the course of five or six innings in his first regular season start (whether that ends up happening Tuesday or Wednesday).
Cheap GPP Consideration: J.A. Happ vs. CHW ($7,100) -- Happ often gets dinged in the minds of fantasy owners for his lack of upside. Tuesday at home against the White Sox, the Blue Jays are the second biggest favorite on the night slate (-195), and considering that he was close to a strikeout per inning last season (142 in 145.1 IP), the aforementioned lack of upside is overblown.
Catcher/First Base
Joey Gallo at OAK ($3,100) -- Kendall Graveman is pitching for the A's on Tuesday, and while his home-run rate against lefties isn't completely out of control (1.02 HR/9 since the start of the 2016 season), his inability to avoid contact during that span (15.1% K%) makes this matchup particularly enticing for Gallo in cash and tournament settings. You know the drill by now -- it's feast-or-famine with Gallo, who has already topped 15 FanDuel points in two of his first five games while turning in a pair of donuts.
Slightly cheaper in a righty-righty matchup, Jose Martinez ($2,900) looks like a viable pivot against Chase Anderson and the Brewers.
Second Base
Rougned Odor at OAK ($2,300) -- Second base is thinner than first base again Tuesday (shocker, right?). Coming off a disappointing 2017 in which he still homered 30 times and stole 15 bases, Odor is in a 1-for-16 slide (2:5 BB:K) to start the season. The biggest issue for cash purposes is the placement in the lineup, as Odor has hit sixth or lower in the four matchups against right-handed starters to begin the season. Consider Odor as a cheap GPP option, especially if you are steering away from Gallo in this matchup in fear of high tournament ownership rates.
With an inexperienced righty on the mound for the Nationals (A.J. Cole), Ozzie Albies ($3,200) is a fine option again Tuesday, especially in cash lineups.
Third Base
Alex Bregman vs. BAL ($3,200) -- My hope is that very low prices on Jose Ramirez ($3,100 against Garrett Richards) and Matt Davidson ($3,100 against Happ) will draw some of the attention away from Bregman. Ownership rates on Astros hitters against any below average pitcher will generally be high, but one-off exposure in tournaments seems very reasonable even if you want to avoid stacking the same lineup at a significant share of the pool is stacking. Now that he's off the Forrest Gump diet, Bregman should be ready to join the 20-20 club for the first time in 2018.
"Before I'd eat like cheeseburgers and pizza for every meal and drink about eight Dr. Peppers a day," Alex Bregman said. "Since the World Series ended I've had zero Dr. Peppers and hired a chef." https://t.co/t2p6Z4icjA
— Jake Kaplan (@jakemkaplan) February 19, 2018
Shortstop
Trevor Story, COL at SD ($2,700) -- Story has hit seventh in the Rockies' batting order for each of the first two matchups against right-handed starters (he hit cleanup against the two lefties), so this isn't a completely cash-friendly suggestion with Tuesday's matchup taking place at Petco Park instead of Coors. Nevertheless, Tyson Ross is continuing his bid to make a full comeback from surgery to treat thoracic outlet syndrome, and he was a difficult pitcher to target before the injury derailed him in 2016 thanks to his ability to miss bats and induce a lot of groundballs. He simply wasn't the same guy in his first 12 appearances after surgery last season, and it's fair to spot value plays against him until he shows something that resembles his pre-injury effectiveness again.
Outfield
Kole Calhoun, LAA vs. CLE ($3,000) -- Calhoun has hit fifth each time the Halos have faced a right-handed starter this season, which is nice. The matchup Tuesday is excellent, as Cleveland starter Josh Tomlin has a sub-20 percent K% against left-handed hitters since the start of 2016 along with a 1.81 HR/9 -- the highest of the starting pitchers on the board for the night slate. Don't forget, the Angels also lowered their outfield wall in right field this offseason, and Calhoun is on the short list of hitters who may benefit from that adjustment as one of the few left-handed regulars in the lineup.
Right-handed Padres, SD vs. COL ($ Various) -- Kyle Freeland is starting for the Rockies on Tuesday, and while he doesn't have an extreme home-run rate against righties a la Josh Tomlin, he has a 1.9% K-BB% against right-handed hitters along with a .345 wOBA against in that split. As noted in this space previously, Petco is nearly a neutral park for right-handed power hitters. Manny Margot is cheap at the top ($2,300), Wil Myers ($2,800) is very interesting if the back injury that knocked him out of Monday's game doesn't sideline him Tuesday, and even if it does (which seems reasonably likely), the Padres have room for Hunter Renfroe ($2,400) and Jose Pirela ($2,300) to be in the lineup together.
Randal Grichuk, TOR vs. CHW ($2,400) -- The Blue Jays' acquisition of Grichuk this winter was a nice boost to his season-long value, as the whims of Mike Matheny would no longer dictate his volume of playing time. Grichuk undoubtedly has flaws in his approach, but he finished sixth in MLB in barrel rate last season (the percentage of his plate appearances that ended with a ball hit at a premium velocity and launch angle). Only Aaron Judge, J.D. Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Gallo and Khris Davis finished ahead of him. Very good things happen when Grichuk makes contact, and with a matchup against a starter (Miguel Gonzalez) who is not particularly good at avoiding bats, Grichuk is a nice cheap option in the outfield Tuesday.
