This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
After a matinee between the Brewers and Cubs at Wrigley, 14 games are available on the Friday night slate this week.
Luis Severino is the most interesting pitcher on the board for me Friday, and while he's not my recommended cash play, I am wondering if the relatively soft pricing on Stephen Strasburg, Jacob deGrom, and Corey Kluber will ultimately make Severino the best of the top-four arms for tournament play, since he's on the road against the Angels.
Many of the plays written up below are secondary options in their respective lineups in favorable situations. For example, Scott Schebler is featured as a value consideration in the outfield, but his teammate Joey Votto is still the best building block in the Reds' lineup by a wide margin.
For those interested, we've started an MLB DFS Slack channel for paid RotoWire subscribers. (There is a season-long one as well.) To join those channels, e-mail support@rotowire.com.
Pitcher
Cash: Stephen Strasburg, WAS vs. ARI ($10,100) -- The D-backs did a lot of damage against Ben Lively and the Phillies on Thursday, but as a below average offense against righties (86 wRC+) with a steady 25.9-percent strikeout rate, the Arizona offense can be picked on. The Nats-Diamondbacks matchup has the lowest over/under total on the board Friday (7.0 -- equal to Mets/Padres), and the win probability is decent for Strasburg since the Nats are -150 favorites. Fortunately for those considering Strasburg beyond cash games, fair prices on Jacob deGrom at Petco ($10,600) and Corey Kluber at home against the Mariners ($11,200) also garnering significant ownership shares.
Also consider: Jacob deGrom, Corey Kluber, and Luis Severino, NYY at LAA ($10,200)
GPP: Mike Minor, TEX at TOR ($6,500) -- The Rangers' decision to sign Minor to a multi-year deal as a starter this winter was puzzling initially, but upon further review of his success in the bullpen last season, it was clear that Minor picked up more velocity (four MPH) than the typical pitcher shifting into a relief role in 2017. Not surprisingly, the strikeout rate has dropped to the 8.5 K/9 range over his first four starts, but Minor has limited the free passes and kept the ball in the park despite a career-high 53.6-percent flyball rate. Especially in the absence of Josh Donaldson, the Blue Jays are surprisingly vulnerable to lefties, with an 84 wRC+ against southpaws this season.
GPP Fade: Luis Castillo, CIN at MIN ($6,900) -- The price is low enough to make Castillo a consideration for tournaments, but this slate has enough intriguing low-owned alternatives to pass on using the young right-handed on the road. To begin 2018, Castillo has averaged more than two mph less on his fastball and slider, and opposing hitters have been able to make hard contact more frequently when they connect, an increasingly common occurrence (7.8 K/9) despite an increased swinging-strike rate (14.1%). To make matters worse, the Reds' offense has struggled to score runs, and the bullpen tasked with protecting Castillo's leads is among the worst in MLB again in 2018.
Catcher/First Base
Carlos Santana, PHI vs. ATL ($3,200) -- Julio Teheran's struggles against left-handed hitters are well documented (5.5% K-BB%, 1.52 HR/9, .334 wOBA), and while Santana is off to a slow start in 2018, he's carrying a hard-hit rate above 40 percent (his highest since 2010) and still walking nearly as much as he's striking out. As a switch-hitter, Santana is also less susceptible to being overmatched by shutdown relievers in the late innings. He's viable in cash and GPP formats Friday night at this price.
Second Base
Jason Kipnis, CLE vs. SEA ($3,200) -- Kipnis delivered his third multi-hit game in 23 contests this season in Thursday's matchup against James Paxton and the Mariners. He's still looking for his first home run that counts in 2018, after he proved he was healthy and crushed the ball throughout the spring. Friday starter Erasmo Ramirez has a 2.12 HR/9 and .363 wOBA against left-handed hitters since the start of 2016, while Progressive Field boosts left-handed home runs by 10 percent, and run-scoring as a whole by 14 percent compared to a completely neutral park. Indians outfielder Michael Brantley ($3,400) and first baseman Yonder Alonso ($3,100) are also strong mid-tier at their respective positions.
Third Base
Brian Anderson, MIA vs. COL ($2,900) -- The Marlins are home for a weekend series against Colorado, which should keep many players on both sides at low ownership rates. Anderson regularly hits fourth in the order for Miami when the matchup is against a left-handed starter, and that will be the case Friday with Tyler Anderson taking the ball for Colorado, who has pretty typical platoon splits (1.34 HR/9, .345 wOBA) since the start of 2016. Given the higher-priced quality options at the position, Anderson is probably better suited for use in tournaments than in cash games, especially since his power production is well below average for the position (career .359 SLG, one home run in 199 plate appearances). Jedd Gyorko ($2,700) is a similarly-priced option for cash games with more pop, assuming he's in the lineup against Pittsburgh lefty Steven Brault. Cleveland stacks including Jose Ramirez ($4,400) given the previously noted struggles of Erasmo Ramirez also make a lot of sense, but Ramirez looks like the most chalky option at the position.
Shortstop
Manny Machado, BAL vs. DET ($4,600) -- Machado matches up against Mike Fiers at Camden Yards, and at least for cash purposes, the list of viable alternatives is pretty short (Francisco Lindor at $4,000). Fiers has had a reverse split since the start of 2016 (.358 wOBA allowed, 1.70 HR/9), which makes him particularly vulnerable against a righty-heavy Baltimore lineup. Things open up a bit with a few cheaper options on the board, but at the pricey end, Carlos Correa makes more sense in tournaments than in cash games against Sean Manaea ($4,600), while switch-hitter Eduardo Escobar ($3,400) draws Luis Castillo and hopefully, a few at-bats against the weak Reds' bullpen at Target Field.
Outfield
Tommy Pham, STL at PIT ($4,200) -- Other than the Yankees' big bats against Andrew Heaney, Pham might have the best matchup on the board among high-priced outfielders Friday. Steven Brault has allowed a .362 wOBA to right-handed hitters since the start of 2016, and while PNC Park is a better power environment for lefties than righties, Pham continues to show elite tools as the Cards' everyday center fielder. For his career, Pham has a 139 wRC+ against lefties, a nearly identical split to his number against righties (140). While it seems unlikely that he will be low-owned, there is a good chance Pham can be an underutilized player Friday.
David Dahl, COL vs. MIA ($3,200) -- The Rockies have been using Dahl as an option in the cleanup spot against the last two righties they've faced. Of course, the park factor drop-off going from Coors Field and Marlins Park is one of the biggest possible swings in the wrong direction, but Jose Urena's struggles as a big-league pitcher are largely the result of a low strikeout rate (11.4% K%) against lefties, and the subsequent hard contact he yields against them (1.42 HR/9, .337 wOBA). At the same price, Ronald Acuña draws Aaron Nola in Philadelphia, and while his prospect hype and the current discount figures to inflate ownership, he's probably best suited for tournament-use as potential chalk.
Scott Schebler, CIN at MIN ($2,700) -- The Reds should flank Billy Hamilton with two lefties in the corners, Schebler and Jesse Winker, in Friday's Interleague matchup against Twins, plus they'll have the added bonus of getting to use the DH at Target Field. Major injuries have limited Phil Hughes to 116 innings since the start of 2016, and during that span, he's been extremely vulnerable against lefties, posting a .432 wOBA against them -- easily the worst split of the 28 pitchers available on Friday's main slate. Winker and first baseman Joey Votto are firmly on the radar as well.
