The Z Files: The Curious Case of Curtailed Contact Rates

We're at the point of the season where many batters have accrued over 100 plate appearances. In past seasons, this would intro my annual missive on stabilization points and how contact rate is now a leading indicator. The problem is for several years I've been wr… I've been wro… OK, I've been wrong.

For those unfamiliar, there's been several studies looking at different underlying metrics, identifying the point at which sample sizes can be trusted. Many, including your truly, took the leap this was an indication of a new skill. The focus here is on contact rate since that was one of the earliest metrics to stabilize.

Russell Carleton, known to some as Pizza Cutter was one of the pioneers of this concept. I strongly suggest checking out this Twitter thread on the subject:

(THREAD) It's time for my annual plea to stop mis-using my sample size research which through my own fault became known as "stabilization."In the next weeks, you'll see an article like this one (https://t.co/NIpbZx6go4) trotted out as "proof" that Player X's hot start is "real"

— Russell A. Carleton (@pizzacutter4) April 20, 2018

To quickly sum up, the data is backwards looking but not predictive. What happened can be trusted; it isn't an indication it will continue to occur.

The scientist in me is rather embarrassed but wants to channel that into research unearthing data that can be actionable. I've embarked on the project, but it's an offseason thing. Embryonic results suggest we're at the point of the season where each hitter needs to be put under the microscope individually. We can't make the blanket statement it's bad to be fanning more than expected or good to be whiffing less.

As such, let's dissect eight hitters making less contact than expected using the site's preseason projections. These aren't the eight with the worst numbers but those with the most fantasy relevance. Deep league managers may care about Drew Robinson or Austin Jackson and are welcome to ask about them in the comments. However, for this discussion, I opted for players most apropos to mixed leagues. The contact rates listed are current through the games of Wednesday, May 2.

Before beginning, here's some abbreviations used in the analysis.

- BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
- HR/FB: Home runs per fly ball
- FB%: Percentage of fly balls among batted balls
- O-swing%: Percentage of swings on pitches outside the strike zone
- O-contact%: Contact percent of pitches outside the strike zone
- Z-swing%: Percentage of swings on pitches in the strike zone
- Z-contact%: Contact percent of pitches in the strike zone

Data courtesy of Fangraphs.

Ian Happ (Current 50.6 percent contact rate, Projected 67.8 percent)

Remember when Happ lead off the 2018 season with a homer on the first pitch? Unfortunately, to date, that wasn't a harbinger of the next 162 games, less one pitch. Happ's contact skills were already suspect; he can't afford swinging at even more air, not with other capable players available to usurp the playing time. Further, Happ's defense pales in comparison to those he's competing with for playing time, both in the infield and outfield.

By the numbers, Happ is chasing more while making considerable less contact on pitches outside the zone. He's also not connecting on strikes as often as last season. When bat meets ball, his hard-hit rate is above average.

Home run data is sketchy this time of the year, especially in cold-weather cities. That said, Happ's HR/FB is down from last season, but still above average.

Happ is getting a steady diet of high, hard stuff; he's been unable to catch up to it. Given the option of a hitter getting beat by hard stuff or breaking balls, most would prefer the former, figuring it's easier to adjust to the faster pitches than the slower offerings with more break. On the other hand, it's easier for a pitcher to command a high heater than breaking stuff. What's curious is last season, significantly more of Happ's whiffs came on slower, breaking pitches. Another oddity is Happ has fanned in over half of his at-bats against southpaws, where he should have the platoon advantage. Last season, his strikeout clip was a respectable 28 percent versus lefties.

If you were on Happ coming into the season, there's no reason to jump ship. He's still just 23 and going through the adjustment process, and it's been hard to get in a groove. The Cubs have played fewer games than most clubs, several in inclement conditions.

The concern is playing time. A healthy Ben Zobrist and productive Albert Almora are costing Happ at-bats. Happ still warrants a reserve spot in mixed leagues. Hopefully, you have a better active option until he earns more playing time.

Yoenis Cespedes (Current 59.4 percent, Projected 78.1 percent)

Cespedes is slashing a respectable .252/.308/.477 including seven homers, so his contact woes have been masked. Whenever a batter is performing despite an exaggerated strikeout rate there must be something balancing. In this case, it's a .345 BABIP, 40 points above his career norm. What makes this intriguing is Cespedes' hard-hit rate is still above average, but significantly down from previous seasons, in tandem with a big spike in fly balls. This combo should deflate BABIP.

By the law of averages, regardless of what happens with Cespedes' contact, if he keeps up the current hard-hit rate and increase in fly balls, his BABIP will plummet. Of course, there's a good chance those marks regress towards career levels. In fact, the wise play is to count on it.

Cespedes has always greatly expanded the zone, but this season he's chasing even more. One reason he swings at so many balls is historically, his contact on non-strikes is above average – but not this season. The combination of a higher O-swing% with a lower O-contact% is driving the overall drop in contact.

Pitchers are predominately getting their punchouts high and in the outer half of the zone or below the knees. These coincide with a couple of Cespedes hot spots from previous seasons. Even though he fanned twice Wednesday night, Cespedes has made much better contact lately. The majority of his punchouts came when he was toughing out flu-like symptoms.

It's hard to imagine prying Cespedes away from his owner, but all indications point to continuing to improve contact, leaving his ultimate fate to BABIP. Assuming he stays healthy, there doesn't look like much to worry about, though it wouldn't be shocking if his average the last five months is a little lower than the .286 projected since to get there, everything must revert to career levels, not just one or two components.

Billy Hamilton (Current 63.8 percent, Projected 77.7 percent)

As an aside, it's baffling how Hamilton's expected contact rate is below 85 or 90 percent, let alone 80 percent. It's also curious why he doesn't bunt for more base hits. Last season, Hamilton laid one down for a hit only five times. You'd think he'd get one bunt hit a week, not fewer than one a month.

Looking at his profile, there's nothing that stands out as the reason he's swinging at air so frequently. He doesn't chase and his Z-swing% is in line with league average. His O- and Z-contact% are down. Hamilton isn't seeing a different pitch mix; he's just not making as much contact.

Will Hamilton's contact rate pick up? Yeah, it already has, but the damage is done. In large part from his strikeouts, but also from the emergence of Jesse Winker as a leadoff hitter, Hamilton has been dropped to the bottom of the order. Even if his on-base numbers return to normal, he isn't going to steal as many bases as his opportunities will be severely diminished.

There's about a 140 plate appearance difference between the top and bottom of the order. Adjusting Hamilton's 60 expected steals relative to trips to the dish yields about 48 swipes. Sure, this is still a bunch, but it could be a huge buzzkill based on your team construction.

The stolen base category has a unique distribution. The gap between teams at the top and bottom is usually large, while the middle teams are bunched tighter than other categories. If your roster has Hamilton but not much else by way of bags, you stand to lose more points than someone projecting to finish at or near the top of the category.

It's too early to assess team needs. Hamilton could get bumped back to the top of the order. Players will get hurt, others will emerge. Not all leagues follow the typical categorical distribution. However, when evaluating your roster, it's prudent to think 50, not 60 swipes from Hamilton.

Paul Goldschmidt (Current 62.2 percent, Projected 73.7 percent)

He's Goldschmidt, he'll be fine, right? Yeah, probably. Early on, Goldschmidt is actually swing less often; he's just making less contact on balls thrown in the zone. This seemingly disproves the narrative Goldschmidt is compensating for the humidor by being more aggressive, possible swinging harder.

That said, his home/road splits are weird. Through Wednesday, Goldschmidt played equal number of home and road games, with 64 PA at home, 63 away. He's fanned 20 times in each scenario but has walked 16 times in Chase Field, compared to just three as a visitor. This renders nearly identical K% (based on PA) but a much worse contact rate (based on at bats) at home, so maybe there is something mental in play. Smacking his first home run at home could help break the ice and get the perennial MVP candidate on track.

Speaking of the humidor, according to this piece by mlb.com's Mike Petriello, early indications give the nod to science. This isn't about declaring victory one month into a season like some do with players. It's about affirming science, hopefully finally convincing those stubbornly insisting the humidor wouldn't matter, especially with respect to Goldschmidt.

Evan Gattis (Current 67.5 percent, Projected 77.9 percent)

Something to keep in mind is before last season, Gattis' strikeout rate wasn't that far off from his current mark. But, since his 2018 expectation baked in 2017's improvement, his current level puts him on the list. We could be looking at nothing more than an outlying 2017 campaign. The catch is, last season, Gattis' power also plummeted. Thus far, it remains in hibernation.

Gattis is fantasy relevant since he has catcher eligibility but was earmarked for the lion's share of playing time as the Astros designated hitter. The problem is, the club has a logjam in both the infield and outfield, with several capable batters ready to play some DH. Gattis' market price wasn't exorbitant, but it was certainly significant, even in one-catcher leagues. If his slow start results in fewer at-bats, he's no longer the asset many expected, even if he does get on track.

Gattis' plate discipline profile is intriguing. He's much more selective, swinging at significantly fewer pitches but without a huge increase in walks. More so, his contact is up. The issue is he's taking far more called strikes than previous seasons. It could be trying to be less aggressive has had the opposite effect, resulting in more strikeouts.

This same increased patience could be negatively influencing hard contact, which is counter-intuitive to the usual narrative of waiting for a good one and mashing it. Gattis hard hit rate is way down, well below league average. His HR/FB is coming along for the ride.

As backwards as this may seem, I'd like to see Gattis swing more. The patient approach isn't working.

Matt Olson (Current 62.1 percent, Projected 70.3 percent)

To be fair, no one really knew what to expect from Olson as his 2018 projection was based on half a season in the bigs plus major-league equivalencies. The translations were favorable, with one caution aside from sketchy contact.

Last year, Olson pounded 24 homers in only 216 PA. The thing is, he only stroked a pair of doubles. This is out of whack, especially in the cavernous Coliseum. So far, Olson has doubled his two-bagger output from last season, smacking four compared to just three long balls.

The concern with Olson remains lofty home run expectations, stimulating my preseason bold prediction of Matt Chapman out-producing Olson. It's obviously still too early to call, but at minimum, my fears concerning others lofty homer expectations is warranted.

Rhys Hoskins (Current 64.3 percent, Projected 75.4 percent)

Like Olson, initial expectations came with an asterisk due to a limited track record. The major difference is Hoskins exhibited superior contact skills in the minors. What's happening so far in 2018 appears to be pitchers backing off the fastball, instead giving Hoskins a heavier dose of sliders, cutters and sinkers.

Of course, this isn't anything new. A young hitter must first prove he can catch up to major-league heat. Once he does, he needs to show he can handle breaking stuff. You know the cliché, baseball is a game of adjustments. The ball is in Hoskins' court. He needs to adjust to the new arsenal he's seeing, then he'll get more fastballs. With his pedigree on the farm, this change should be on the way.

Eric Hosmer (Current 72.5 percent, Projected 81 percent)

Some may chalk up Hosmer's contact dip to a change in team, perhaps trying to live up to his big contract. My reasoning is much more mundane. Park factors for strikeouts are real. Factors like foul territory, atmospheric conditions, batter's eye, etc. render it easier or harder to hit a baseball. Kauffman Stadium decreases strikeouts by six percent. Hosmer played several games in Comerica Park and Target Field, a pair or venues suppressing whiffs even more than The K. Hosmer's new digs, Petco Park, increases punchouts by three percent. Coors Field reduces them by 13 percent, but the rest of the NL West is neutral or a little positive. Overall, just by park factors, Hosmer should fan four or five percent more than he did with the Royals, accounting for much of the drop so far this season.