MLB Barometer: What's Next for Andujar?

So, I guess Paul Goldschmidt is fixed.

The D-backs wrapped up a stretch of the schedule that featured five out of seven series away from Chase Field, with the two home series coming against the Reds and Marlins -- the two worst pitching staffs in Major League Baseball based on team WAR entering play Wednesday.

Last week, Goldy went 16-for-25 over the course of six games against the Giants and Rockies, raising his season OPS by 152 points during that span (from .721 to .873).

The problems that have plagued Goldschmidt have been mostly at Chase Field, but his strikeout rate is still at its highest level (28.4%) since his rookie season in 2011 (29.9%), as elevated fastballs have given him trouble throughout the year.

It would be difficult to find a player who was more of a 'riser' over the course of the past week, but there are several performances of note covered below.

Risers

Brandon Crawford, SS, SFG -- Despite an 0-for-6 showing in the first two games of the series against the Marlins this week, Crawford is hitting .329/.377/.522 with eight homers and 32 RBI through 65 games this season. The biggest difference in his underlying numbers appears to be success making hard contact against breaking pitches. After hitting .159 with a .212 slugging percentage against breaking balls in 2017, Crawford is hitting .309 with a .500 slugging percentage against breaking balls in 2018. It should be noted, however, that this new-found success might not be completely sustainable, as he's still whiffing on breaking balls at a 32.1 percent clip. At the very least, the step forward against breaking balls, paired with a spray chart that features more batted balls than ever up the middle and to the opposite field, at least give Crawford a chance of consolidating the career-bests in power (21 homers, 2015) and average (.275, 2016) that he's never been able to put together in the same campaign.

Miguel Andujar, 3B, NYY -- Andujar's .310/.340/.552 line looks very similar to the numbers he put up at Double-A and Triple-A, and he's currently pacing toward a mid-20s home-run total with 170-plus combined runs and RBI. He's never walked more than 7.2% of the time at any particular level, but Andujar's 17.2% K% is the first time he's fanned more than 14 percent of the time at any stop since his first exposure to High-A as a 20-year-old in 2015. The fascinating question with Andujar is: how quickly can he make adjustments as pitchers seek (and likely find) new ways to get him out? In the eyes of some evaluators, Andjuar's hit tool is more advanced than that of Cody Bellinger and Rhys Hoskins, so while he draws fewer walks than both of the aforementioned 2017 rookie surprises, he also strikes out less, and his batting average floor might be more stable (.270s) as a result.

Matt Kemp, OF, LAD -- When spring training started, I thought Kemp would be lucky to stick as a platoon partner for Joc Pederson in left field this season. Maybe the BSOHL stuff was true? Kemp has traded a few grounders for line drives, but his plate discipline is largely unchanged from his work over the previous two seasons with the Padres and Braves. His .333/.366/.566 line is ridiculous (much like Crawford's), but if nothing else, it's proof that there is still something left in the tank. This is the time of year when trade activity picks up in most leagues, as owners are willing to accept their strengths and weaknesses, injuries begin to pile up, and keeper-league laggards become willing to look to the future. Old, boring players like Kemp are often very cheap on draft day, and they're often very cheap in trades even if they've played well for a prolonged stretch. Another 12-15 homers should be on the way, even if he's going to hit .265-.270 while offering up that pop. Production-wise, he's capable of matching Andujar the rest of the way.

Seth Lugo, SP, NYM -- Lugo has a 14:0 K:BB over his last three appearances (13 innings), including six scoreless innings with just two hits allowed (eight strikeouts) against the Yankees on Sunday night. The recent surge, which has occurred with Noah Syndergaard on the disabled list, has opened the door for Lugo to replace Jason Vargas in the rotation after Syndergaard's eventual activation. Working mostly out of the bullpen, Lugo's pitch mix has changed this season, as he's thrown his curveball more than 30 percent of the time (he threw it 17.4 percent of the time in 2017), making that the primary offering in his five-pitch arsenal. The Mets' release of Adrian Gonzalezmight be a sign of things to come, which will likely include a release of Jose Reyes (once Wilmer Flores is healthy), and a willingness to give Vargas a break from the rotation, even it's just a temporary way to extend Lugo's opportunity as a starter.

Dylan Covey, SP, CHW -- Covey is keeping his place in the White Sox rotation following the return of Carlos Rodon, as Hector Santiago has been shifted into a bullpen role. After serving up 20 homers (!) in 70 innings and carrying a 41:34 K:BB last season, Covey was outrighted to Triple-A Charlotte in February, and optioned back to the minors after a mid-April spot start as part of a doubleheader. This time around, Covey has ditched his four-seam fastball for a two-seamer, while adding nearly a mile-and-a-half per hour to that offering. That change has helped to increase his groundball rate from 48.5% last season to 61.7% in 2018, and he's yet to allow a homer in 28.1 innings. He still has limitations, but it's easy to forget that Covey was a first-round pick of the Brewers in 2010 before getting diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes and opting to attend college while getting his health in order. The A's drafted him in the fourth round in 2013, and it appears as though he's found something to effectively navigate big-league lineups, at least as a streaming option in deep mixed leagues.

Jordan Hicks, RP, STL -- Hicks worked with Cardinals pitching coach Mike Maddux to refine his secondary pitches, as he was struggling to get the whiffs you would typically expect from a power reliever capable dialing up his fastball to 105 mph.

Jordan Hicks' Fastball is so dangerous, soon he's going to need a state permit to throw it. 👮🏻‍♂️🚔 pic.twitter.com/z7PPVaB534

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 13, 2018

Command is still an issue for Hicks, but Greg Holland looks like he's closer to getting released than he is to working his way back into the ninth inning, leaving Hicks as the potential next option up for saves if Bud Norris falters or lands on the DL. Over his last 15 games, Hicks has posted a 21:6 K:BB over 17.1 innings while posting a 3.12 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Given his filthy arsenal and increasing ability to utilize those offerings to miss bats, Hicks has the potential to become a top-10 reliever if he finds his way into more save chances in the weeks ahead.

Fallers

Gary Sanchez, C, NYY -- It's jarring to see Sanchez's results to this point. Despite 12 homers, 35 RBI and 33 runs in 55 games, he's hitting .190/.291/.430. The underlying plate discipline numbers are right in line with his career norms, and the difference is in what has happened when Sanchez puts the ball in play. The Yankees gave Sanchez consecutive days off from the starting lineup Tuesday and Wednesday, following an off-day Monday, giving him a three-day breather before his expected return to action Thursday. Manager Aaron Boone cited wear and tear along with a few seemingly minor ailments as part of the reason for Sanchez's recent struggles. The underlying exit velocity and barrel rate numbers are still strong enough to expect a rebound, as long as health isn't an ongoing issue. Since recording his last multi-hit game on May 21, Sanchez has been mired in a 4-for-53 (.075) slump over the last 15 games he's played. During that span, his season OPS has dropped from .876 to .721.

Jonathan Schoop, 2B, BAL -- In many ways, Schoop reminds me of Rougned Odor this time last year. During the 2017 draft season, Odor was a top-50 overall pick in many leagues, thanks to his combo of power and speed, and well above average run and RBI contributions (of course, Schoop rarely attempts to steal bases). Odor did it despite poor plate discipline, and poor plate discipline -- more specifically, impatience -- has always been a part of Schoop's profile, even as he made a case for top-50 overall consideration with career-bests across the board including homers (32), RBI (105), runs scored (92) and across his slash line (.293/.338/.503). An early-season oblique injury might completely explain the career-low in average exit velocity from Schoop thus far, but the supporting cast is already full of holes, and things will get worse at some point in the next seven weeks when Manny Machado is dealt to a contender.

Gregory Polanco, OF, PIT -- I was all over Polanco at a discounted price this draft season. Thankfully, I wasn't taking victory laps in mid-April when he was laying the early foundation for MVP consideration, with a five-homer binge over the first 11 games and a 1.099 OPS. In the two months since reaching that peak, Polanco is hitting .187/.281/.331 with three homers and a pair of steals over 47 games. An 0-for-4 showing Tuesday night dropped his season OPS to its lowest mark of the season (.721), and the recent promotion Austin Meadows is currently costing Polanco a start or two each week as the Pirates are rotating four outfielders. While Polanco is hitting the ball in the air more than ever this season (49.4% FB%; career 36.9%) and he's recovered the hard hit balls that went missing during his injury-riddled 2017 campaign, he's lowered his batting average floor with the highest K% of his career (23.6%; career 18.9%). In many ways, this looks like an altered approach that is still a work in progress, but it's becoming increasingly difficult to wait it out in shallow mixed formats, especially with the counting stats taking an extra hit while Polanco is buried in the seventh spot in the Pirates' batting order.

Javier Baez, 2B/SS, CHC -- Baez is a very useful fantasy player, and he's well on his way to setting career highs across the board with 14 homers and 11 steals on the ledger through 63 games. He finished April with a .963 OPS, showing interesting underlying improvement enough to dupe me into writing him up as a 'Riser' back on April 21:

Baez hit three homers over the past week, lifting his season total to seven, while pushing his slash line to .292/.363/.736 (1.099) after wrapping up a weekend series against the Rockies at Coors Field. In parts of four seasons in the big leagues, Baez's swinging-and-miss tendencies and low walk rate often off-set his raw power, speed, and ability as a plus defender in the middle infield. The early signs are pointing to a breakout for the 25-year-old, as he's shown improved discipline with fewer strikeouts than ever (21.3%), along with his best walk rate (7.5%) and a higher flyball rate (39.6%) than each of his two full campaigns. The underlying adjustment has been a higher rate of swings on pitches inside the strike zone (career-high 80.2% Z-Swing%) paired with an increased rate of contact when he swings at pitches outside the zone (O-Contact% 60.0%). Baez's strong start has also helped him move up in the batting order, as he hit second in four straight games to close out the week after beginning the season as the Cubs' No. 8 hitter.

The worm has turned. Baez is now swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone at the highest rate of his career, his flyball rate has dropped from the level he established the last two seasons, and he's back to the bottom-third of the Cubs' lineup. With just over 1,500 MLB plate appearances under his belt, it may be time to simply accept Baez for what he is.

Greg Bird, 1B, NYY -- I spent $15 out of a $260 budget on Bird in the 15-team mixed Tout Wars Auction. The only other purchase from draft season I regret more is Rougned Odor at $15 in the Steak League Auction (18-team mixed). Make me an offer. He's bound to start hitting balls into that short porch eventually. A 9-for-55 mark to begin the season with a near-30 percent strikeout is a step toward more of the same from last year when he was healthy for a very limited chunk of the season (late in the second half). I hope I'm wrong, but Bird is increasingly looking the part of a player who will be robbed of his chance to consistently deliver useful production due to a variety of major injuries.

(Author's Note: He just homered in Wednesday night's game as this article was being posted.)

Luke Weaver, SP, STL -- The 2018 expectations for Weaver may have been unfair from the start. His strikeout rate has fallen off in a big way (from 10.7 K/9 last season to 7.4), but his swinging-strike rate (9.4%) has remained close to last year's mark (9.6%). Last season's ratios (a 3.88 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) are right in line with the bulk of the in-season projections for him the rest of the way. I would deal for Weaver wherever possible, as the price should fall from draft day, when he was a top-100 overall pick in some circles. Weaver has been getting more swings-and-misses with his changeup this season (30.0% whiff rate), but he needs to get more whiffs with his other offerings in order to be more than a third or fourth fantasy starter going forward.