This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
The NBA is now churning on all cylinders as we enter opening weekend. We follow up a nine-game slate on Friday with an intriguing 10-game assortment on Saturday. Before we make our selections, let's try to narrow the field down a bit. You'll see below a lot of decently-priced guards, which is one reason why I think your spend-up spots on Saturday should be at forward and center.
GAME I LIKE: Raptors (-1) at Wizards – O/U: 218.5
Toronto played some inspired ball against the Celtics on Friday and even though the Raps are on a back-to-back, I like how evenly-matched these two teams are. It's easy to be chalky with Kawhi Leonard ($8,400) and John Wall ($8,500), who are both nicely priced, but sneaky plays like Danny Green ($4,400), Otto Porter Jr. ($5,700) and Fred VanVleet ($4,500) really make this a valuable game to target.
GAME I FADE: Rockets (-2) at Lakers – O/U:235.5
With the highest Over/Under line on the slate, this game stands out with a trio of stars facing off. James Harden ($11,100) and Chris Paul ($8,800) will clash with LeBron James ($10,700) and the new-look Lakers on Saturday in a matchup that will attract a lot of attention DFS-wise. This is exactly why I am prone to fade most of this game. Yes, you'll likely cringe when you see the monster stat lines these three will come up with, but in order to reach value, James and Harden will have to hit 50 DKFP or more. That's definitely doable, but 30 percent of the field will probably make this play as well. If you want action in this game, go contrarian with guys like Rajon Rondo ($6,000), Josh Hart ($4,900) or JaVale McGee ($4,800). I'm likely to fire up a showdown contest for this game though – It will be an entertaining one to watch.
It's that time of year where we have to pay attention to scheduling, so these teams are on the second game of a back-to-back: Knicks, Raptors, Nets, Pacers, Celtics, Magic, Hornets, Timberwolves. I don't think this metric is a huge concern yet, but if you're looking at players on these teams, check out their usage on Friday and make a call with those numbers in mind.
I'll now target three players at each position, along a few others to consider that hold equal weight in my predictions. When possible, each position will include a top-shelf player, a mid-range salary target and a low-priced value play. The recommendations I've made above will not be included in this section.
GUARDS
Ben Simmons, PHI vs. ORL ($9,800): You can bet I'll go back to the well with Simmons after a day of rest. With 61 and 54 DKFP outings so far, he's been nothing short of spectacular. His dual eligibility at small forward only accentuates his value, especially in seasonal formats. The logic of going here is that you get Harden and James-like output for around 2K less. He's on his way to 10K-ville fast, so I'll utilize him with impunity for now.
Zach LaVine, CHI vs. DET ($6,900): After putting up 45 DKFP against a tough Sixers team, LaVine will encounter less resistance against the Pistons. This matchup is likely to be overlooked by many, which makes LaVine a potential GPP star tonight. My only knock on LaVine is that he's not going to wow you with multi-category numbers, but he'll still come through for you against Detroit's softer defense.
Rodney McGruder, MIA vs. CHA ($4,400): Add McGruder to the list of high-value guards I mentioned in the first section. Although Miami is emerging from their injury hangover, I still think McGruder will get his share of minutes alongside Goran Dragic in the backcourt. He's definitely played well enough to receive time and will likely still be in the starting lineup on Saturday.
Other guards to consider: Devin Booker, PHO at DEN ($8,300), Kemba Walker, CHA at MIA ($7,800), Evan Turner, POR vs. SA ($4,300)
FORWARDS
Jimmy Butler, MIN at DAL, ($7,700): Interested in some drama? Well, at this price, I certainly am. I'll use Butler's dual eligibility and slot him at forward in my GPP lineups because you're just not going to find this kind of production very often in the 7K range. Does he suit up? Or does he give us All-Star numbers? I think he'll continue to stay true to his word and give us yet another productive night.
Will Barton, DEN vs. PHO ($6,700): The Nuggets play yet another soft opponent in Phoenix after besting the Clippers on Wednesday. I think the Suns are a slightly tougher test and Barton will still see around 35 minutes on the floor. Barton is the second-safest bet behind Nikola Jokic on this talented roster, and I envision utilizing his reliable floor often as long as he stays this cheap.
Trevor Ariza, PHO at DEN ($5,500): How about Trevor Ariza? His price shot up $900 since his dazzling debut performance. I'll admit, I wasn't high on Ariza to begin the season, but it looks like he fits right in with Booker and Ayton as a legitimate threat at the three. His chances at being in a State Farm commercial have gone down, but everything else seems to be trending up for him. Despite a tougher opponent, I still like his chances at this price if he can log 30 minutes or more on Saturday. With Ayton questionable, he may eclipse that number.
Other forwards to consider: DeMar DeRozan, SA at POR ($7,200), Bobby Portis, CHI vs. DET ($6,300), Kevin Knox, NY vs. BOS ($4,200)
CENTERS
Joel Embiid, PHI vs. ORL ($10,000): I've stacked Simmons and Embiid in at least one lineup every night and so far, it's definitely paid off. Against Orlando at home? This is a no-brainer to be sure, but attention must be paid here. I said above that this is a spend-up spot on Saturday – look no further.
Domantas Sabonis, IND vs. BKN ($6,100): I keep thinking we'll see more of Myles Turner, and we just haven't. Even if Turner's minutes go up, I think Sabonis -- who is listed as questionable with a knee injury -- will still see around 30 minutes and with some blowout potential here against the Nets, they are more likely to lean on Sabonis in lieu of Turner until they truly think he's 100 percent.
Jarrett Allen, BKN at IND ($5,900): I mentioned JaVale McGee above and while I think he's my favorite low-cost play, I'm going to continue to ride the Jarrett Allen train at this price. I guess you could call me an Allen apologist. He's come up with two double-doubles to open the season -- find that in the 5K range if you can.
Other centers to consider: Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. PHO ($8,500), Hassan Whiteside, MIA vs. CHA ($6,700)
With back-to-backs now in the picture, it's time to start being a little more vigilant with your lineups as tip-off looms. We can thank DraftKings for bringing back the Late Swap, though. As always, check out our updates on RotoWire for the latest news!
