This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Saturday night was just one of those nights in the NBA where everything works against you.
Since I have the advantage of writing this article on consecutive days, I'm going to rehash the successes and failures of my previous night's predictions from time to time. While I accurately targeted some guys (like Nikola Jokic, for instance), things didn't go well from the start. One big disadvantage is that we like to get these articles to you early. Unfortunately, we can't predict who rests, and when Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard were held out, it happened long after I'd already posted. Of course, I recommended both. Then two more of my picks (Ben Simmons and Will Barton) got hurt; variance reared its ugly head there.
So the moral to the story: understand our limitations and act accordingly. We do the best we can with what we have, but it only goes to show you the importance of the back-to-backs lists. This is where you'll often find your rest players, as was the case Saturday, and occasionally we'll get tripped up by one of them! Now that all that is off my chest, I shall soldier on!
Speaking of back-to-back teams, we have the Rockets and Nuggets, and after Jokic's history-making triple-double, we might see him take a seat. Our slate is only four games, and if he plays he's almost unavoidable at $9,200.
While I usually like to target and fade one game each, the slate is simply too small for that. I will mention the GS-DEN matchup briefly, however. Undoubtedly these two teams are among the NBA's best, and both will likely go deep into the playoffs this season. While I won't shy away from this game, Denver's back-to-back status might result in a slightly unbalanced contest where the Warriors step on the gas and put this game away. Then again, it might stay close for the entire game. Welcome to variance, and possibly more than we'd like. I do have targets worth looking at in that game below, though. So let's get to it!
GUARDS
Dennis Schroder, OKC vs. SAC ($7,200): Time is running out to target Schroder. While I don't think he'll disappear completely when Russell Westbrook (knee) returns, he certainly won't be posting stat lines worth playing at this salary. The matchup against the Kings gives me confidence despite Schroder's dreadful 2-for-15 shooting night against the Clippers on Friday. That one detail makes me more interested in Schroder as a cash-saving GPP play, as opposed to a cash play with a reliable floor.
De'Aaron Fox, SAC at OKC ($6,600): This guy is far too good to be anywhere near DK's median price, but here he is! Fox has given us 33 and 41 fantasy points in his first two games, and both scores beat value at this price. Considering these games were against the Pelicans and the Jazz, it's worth noting that the Thunder looks to be a much weaker defense. If I am forced to choose between Schroder and Fox, I'd save a few dollars and run with Fox.
Torrey Craig, DEN vs. GS ($3,000): Here's your sneaky value of the night. We don't have a lot of information about Will Barton's condition, but if highlight video is any indication, it didn't look like something he'll bounce back from overnight. Upon Barton's exit Craig entered the game and put up six fantasy points in 15 minutes. Nothing to write home about, but at this price he doesn't need much more to beat value. Barton's potential absence might lead to boosts at other positions, and obviously if reports say Barton is fine, you can skip Craig.
Other guards to consider: Chris Paul, HOU at LAC ($8,300); Trae Young, ATL at CLE ($6,100); Jordan Clarkson, CLE vs. ATL ($5,000)
FORWARDS
Kevin Love, CLE vs. ATL ($8,500): Atlanta has no defense, and I'm slotting Love at forward in order to keep my options open at center. This is a great opportunity for Love, and I'd be tempted to stack him with Cedi Osman ($6,000), as this game has the potential to be a huge offensive night for the Cavs.
Paul Millsap, DEN vs. GS ($6,400): A bit contrarian, but so be it. Two straight double-doubles is nothing to sneeze at, and while Millsap might be a sit candidate on this back-to-back, somehow I doubt it. Barton's potential absence will result in Millsap's game opening up a little bit, and his history against the Warriors is above average.
Marvin Bagley III, SAC at OKC ($5,100): I hope we see more and more of Bagley in the coming weeks, as he's a special talent. He'll have an uphill battle against Paul George, but he's still cheap enough to take a chance on in GPP lineups. Despite the Kings' woeful beginning, I think they can keep this game close.
Other forwards to consider: Paul George, OKC vs. SAC ($8,400); Taurean Prince, ATL at CLE ($6,700)
CENTERS
Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. GS ($9,200): Of course, this depends on if he plays or not. I think he will, but Mason Plumlee ($4,100) is a fine pivot for Jokic because I think both will have an easy time against Damian Jones and whoever else the Warriors throw out there. I think Jokic is eager to make yet another statement after Saturday night's historic outing, and there's no better time to do it than against last year's champs.
Steven Adams, OKC vs. SAC ($7,000): It would be silly to not give Adams serious consideration in this matchup, as the Kings have allowed 49.4 fantasy points per game to centers in their first two games. I think he has an easy time getting to 35.0, and could very well exceed that total if he stays on the floor in a close game.
Clint Capela, HOU at LAC ($6,200): While I don't think Capela's ceiling is quite as high as Adams', the Clippers are another team that's experienced trouble against centers in the early going, allowing an average of 42.5 fantasy points over the first two games. That puts them near the bottom in defense vs. centers. I'm not a fan of the back-to-back status, but I don't think the Rockets are willing to give guys like Isiah Hartenstein or Nene Hilario heavy exposure unless they absolutely have to.
INJURY ALERT:Larry Nance Jr. ($4,900) still hasn't seen the floor this season, but reports say he looked fine in Saturday's practice. If he plays, I'm willing to give him some exposure in my GPP lineups against Atlanta's porous defense. You'll have to keep a close eye on the latest reports to field him, though.
You probably noticed that I didn't include any Warriors starters. With slates this shallow, they look like reasonable options, but the leaner the slate, the fewer value plays you'll find to let you afford a Stephen Curry or Kevin Durant. You also have Denver's defense to contend with. Klay Thompson ($5,600) is an exception, as he's well-priced and can explode at any time. If you do a Curry/Durant stack, you'll need to fly with guys like Craig, Bagley and Clarkson and hope they hit.
