NBA Waiver Wire: Replacing Victor Oladipo

NBA Waiver Wire: Replacing Victor Oladipo

This article is part of our NBA Waiver Wire series.

A crushing batch of injuries dominate the Week 16 waiver wire, and that's despite one of the most consequential schedules of the remainder of the season.

Multiple players who were top-20 picks in the fall are either facing extended absences -- like Victor Oladipo (quad) and Anthony Davis (finger) -- or are on the brink of returning, like Chris Paul (hamstring) and Andre Drummond (concussion). Additionally, a large swath of regular fantasy starters -- like Nikola Mirotic (calf) and T.J. Warren (ankle) -- suffered late-week injuries.

Let's start with the schedule.

Schedule Notes

The NBA schedule is also important, as Week 16 has fewer games than any other week for the rest of the season. The average team plays just 3.07 games. For comparison, teams averaged 3.53 games during Week 15, and -- excluding the All-Star weeks and the final week of the season -- the average games per team per week over the rest of the season is 3.38. Managers in games max leagues will have to go much deeper into their benches, and matchup quality takes on added significance with so many fewer games on the docket.

The Trail Blazers have the final one-game week of the NBA season, with only a game on Wednesday before five days off. Even during a slow week for the league, managers in weekly leagues should consider benching Damian Lillard, and Lillard, C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic are the only Blazers deep-league managers can even consider starting.

Five teams play only

A crushing batch of injuries dominate the Week 16 waiver wire, and that's despite one of the most consequential schedules of the remainder of the season.

Multiple players who were top-20 picks in the fall are either facing extended absences -- like Victor Oladipo (quad) and Anthony Davis (finger) -- or are on the brink of returning, like Chris Paul (hamstring) and Andre Drummond (concussion). Additionally, a large swath of regular fantasy starters -- like Nikola Mirotic (calf) and T.J. Warren (ankle) -- suffered late-week injuries.

Let's start with the schedule.

Schedule Notes

The NBA schedule is also important, as Week 16 has fewer games than any other week for the rest of the season. The average team plays just 3.07 games. For comparison, teams averaged 3.53 games during Week 15, and -- excluding the All-Star weeks and the final week of the season -- the average games per team per week over the rest of the season is 3.38. Managers in games max leagues will have to go much deeper into their benches, and matchup quality takes on added significance with so many fewer games on the docket.

The Trail Blazers have the final one-game week of the NBA season, with only a game on Wednesday before five days off. Even during a slow week for the league, managers in weekly leagues should consider benching Damian Lillard, and Lillard, C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic are the only Blazers deep-league managers can even consider starting.

Five teams play only two games: the Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Suns, Kings and Raptors. All players on those teams are at a disadvantage, but because the schedule is so light, all players remain in consideration for use in weekly leagues.

Nine teams play four games: the Hawks, Celtics, Nets, Hornets, Nuggets, Pacers, Clippers, Grizzlies and Knicks. Players on those teams should be heavily targeted in weekly lineups leagues, as the advantage they provide is far more than in a normal week.

As for the day-to-day slates, the week is mostly balanced until the weekend. Saturday has an unusually high 12 games (starting at 5 pm EST, make sure to set your lineups early!), while Super Bowl Sunday has only three early games (start times between 1 pm EST and 3 pm EST – again, set your lineups early!). In daily lineups leagues, players on the Thunder, Grizzlies, Knicks and Celtics all gain value because they play four games, including one on Sunday, without playing on Saturday.

Recommended Pickups

Tyreke Evans, Pacers (64 percent rostered)
Doug McDermott, Pacers (1 percent rostered)
Aaron Holiday, Pacers (1 percent rostered)

Next week's schedule: GSW, at WAS, at ORL, at MIA

In a week with multiple injuries, the most important happened early, with Victor Oladipo (quad) suffering a season-ender on Wednesday. Oladipo was a borderline-first-round-pick this offseason, and he led the Pacers in minutes and usage, so this is a big one. Evans is the biggest gainer, though he was quickly scooped up in a ton of leagues – his roster rate increased 25 percent in the first 24 hours after Oladipo suffered the injury. If Evans is still available in your league, he's the most important pickup by far.

But Evans isn't the only beneficiary of Oladipo's injury. The last time Oladipo was out, McDermott went on a seven-game shooting spree, averaging 13.3 points and 2.0 threes with 60-56-88 shooting splits in 21.1 minutes. He cooled off in the final four games before Oladipo's return, but McDermott's red-hot streak with Oladipo sidelined means that McDermott is now once again in the Terrence Ross/Bryn Forbes family of streaky shooters to add and drop according to whomever is playing best at the time. Holiday is likely to rejoin the rotation off the bench, in which case he'd have value as a deep-league pickup.

Cory Joseph (13 percent rostered) is also likely to see extra time, though he hasn't played well when given extended minutes so far this season, so he is also probably only a deep-league pickup.

Jahlil Okafor, Pelicans (42 percent rostered)
Darius Miller, Pelicans (3 percent rostered)

Next week's schedule: at HOU, DEN, at SAS

The Pelicans love resurrecting Okafors. After bringing back the long-lost Emeka Okafor as a starter late last season – he'd been out of the league for more than four seasons – they've given new life to (distant) cousin, Jahlil, this week.

With Anthony Davis (finger) and Nikola Mirotic (calf) both out indefinitely, and Julius Randle (ankle) still without a timetable for return from his recent injury, a much more explosive-looking Okafor has returned to his All-Rookie First-Team production. In three starts, Okafor is averaging 18.3 points and 9.3 rebounds in 30.3 minutes per game. He's also blocked a shockingly-high eight shots, but that's way above his career rate and is likely to regress. Given the state of this frontcourt, Okafor is the second-best add in a week with a lot of solid waiver options, though as soon as Davis returns, his value will plummet. Miller is also worth considering, though he's a much less enticing option

Rajon Rondo, Lakers (59 percent rostered)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Lakers (41 percent rostered)
Ivica Zubac, Lakers (35 percent rostered)
Josh Hart, Lakers (45 percent rostered)

Next week's schedule: PHI, at LAC, at GSW

Lonzo Ball (ankle) was another early-week injury, and he's expected to miss at least four-to-six weeks. As with Oladipo, the best pickup here is already widely rostered. Ball's injury perfectly coincides with Rondo's return from a hand injury that cost him 14 games. Ball and Rondo play almost identical roles for the Lakers, and so swapping one for the other doesn't have a huge impact on the rest of the roster, but it extends the fantasy window for Josh Hart. Rondo didn't miss a beat in his return Thursday night against the Timberwolves, finishing with 15 points, 13 assists, six rebounds and two blocks in a team-high 37 minutes.

While we're talking about the Lakers, I'll mention Zubac, who has seen increased run over his current, four-game streak of double-digit scoring and 21-plus minutes. Zubac would be toward the end of the "other recommendations" if he were the only Laker worth considering this week. He's averaging 17.8 points and 7.8 rebounds during this streak, but a 26-and-12 double-double is doing a lot of the heavy lifting there. He only has four games of more than 23 minutes this season, though all have come since the week before Christmas ,and he has at least 16 points in each of them. There's a lot of risk here, but also a fair amount of upside.

Josh Okogie, Timberwolves (9 percent rostered)
Next week's schedule: MEM, DEN

The key variable here is Derrick Rose (ankle) – how serious was Thursday night's injury? If Rose will miss a few games, Okogie becomes a top target. If Rose is healthy, Okogie is mostly ignorable. Jeff Teague (foot) has missed the last two games and lacks a clear timeline to return. Tyus Jones (ankle) is in basically the exact same situation, except he's already missed four games.

At the moment, Okogie is the only man standing. Out of fairness, I should note that some other fantasy analysts are higher on Okogie than I am – but I only see him as attractive when the rest of the Timberwolves' backcourt is sidelined. Jerryd Bayless (7 percent rostered) is currently Okogie's backup, an he also has some appeal while everyone else is hurt. Bayless played 30 minutes off the bench Thursday and finished with 16 points and eight assists.

Ante Zizic, Cavaliers (37 percent rostered)
Next week's schedule: WAS, DAL

The Cavaliers are in full-on tank-mode, and Tristan Thompson's foot has now cost him four games – an injury that had no obvious date of onset, that the team implied was minor, and that was initially labeled day-to-day. Larry Nance (knee) should be back Friday night, but coach Larry Drew is occasionally allergic to giving Nance a big workload. If you can, it's worth waiting until after Friday to see how the rotation shakes out. But Zizic is averaging 17.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, and posting a 60.7 field goal percentage over his last five games.

Other recommendations: Kenneth Faried, Rockets (41 percent rostered); Jonathan Isaac, Magic (48 percent rostered); Josh Jackson, Suns (39 percent rostered); Marco Belinelli, Spurs (22 percent rostered); D.J. Augustin, Magic (45 percent rostered); Allonzo Trier, Knicks (23 percent rostered); Kevin Huerter, Hawks (31 percent rostered); Bryn Forbes, Spurs (24 percent rostered); Noah Vonleh, Knicks (46 percent rostered); Emmanuel Mudiay, Knicks (49 percent rostered)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Rikleen
Rikleen writes the NBA column "Numbers Game," which decodes the math that underpins fantasy basketball and was a nominee for the 2016 FSWA Newcomer of the Year Award. A certified math teacher, Rikleen decided the field of education pays too well, so he left it for writing. He is a Boston College graduate living outside Boston.
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