This article is part of our NBA DFS Breakdown series.
Expected Scores, Spreads and Efficiency
Both Golden State and Houston are expected to close things out Wednesday night, with neither team looking to take another road trip. For DFS purposes, it may be best to avoid key Warriors players, as guys like Steph Curry and Kevin Durant could catch some early rest if things get out of hand. By the same token, stacking up on Clippers players like Landry Shamet, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Ivica Zubac might pay off and allow you to insert some of the big guns from Jazz-Rockets into your lineup. Running those value plays alongside James Harden, Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell will be a popular strategy, and for a good reason.
Jazz at Rockets (3-1)
The Rockets have no injuries to report
Stats through four games
While the Rockets don't have any injuries to report, it's important to note that Clint Capela is dealing with two respiratory illness, and he mentioned after playing just 28 minutes in Game 4 that it was difficult to breathe. That doesn't bode well for the Rockets, but it also doesn't bode well for DFS players interesting in rostering Capela. It could lead to increased minutes for P.J. Tucker, however, who saw 38 minutes during Game 4. James Harden didn't look like himself in that game, either, committing eight turnovers to four assists. What we did see was Chris Paul keeping Houston in the game, as he finished with 23 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, five steals and two blocks across 35 minutes.
The Jazz had three players go for double-doubles during Game 4 – Ricky Rubio, Royce O'Neale and Derrick Favors. Rubio's passing and defense makes him an enticing DFS option, and while Favors doesn't have a ton of upside due to his limited workload, the Rockets haven't really had an answer for him. Donovan Mitchell also went for 31 points, seven rebounds, four assists and a steal in the victory, while Jae Crowder got in a rhythm and produced 23 points. Like Harden, Mitchell has been struggling from the field overall, but is taking a huge volume of shots, giving him plenty of fantasy upside.
Clippers at Warriors (3-1)
The Clippers have no injuries to report
Stats through four games
Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell continue to lead the charge for the Clippers, and their production is especially important considering how much Danilo Gallinari (29.2 FG%) has struggled. As mentioned in the intro, oddsmakers are expecting a blowout, so it might be best to target value options from the Clippers who figure to see more action than usual. Rookies Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Landry Shamet could easily see 30-plus minutes and play against the Warriors' reserves late in the game. Ivica Zubac could see increased run as well, and he's averaging 1.4 fantasy points per minute in this series.
I'd hesitate to put too much confidence in the Warriors' core, as it's possible they play fewer than 30 minutes. However, Golden State's reserves don't exactly scream value, either. You could take a flier on Kevon Looney or Quinn Cook, but it's another thing to feel good about it. Overall, this is a team I'd be avoiding on Wednesday's slate, as there are too many variables for me to feel comfortable.