Coaching Tiers 2014: Where Popovich Finishes Last

Watching the San Antonio Spurs win the 2013-14 title was a beautiful thing. The culture of ball movement, defined roles and depth allowed them to unseat a Miami Heat roster of stars and scrubs in dominant fashion. But if you only play fantasy basketball and never watch the Spurs play (well, first, shame on you), it's quite possible you had no idea they were the most dominant team in the league. This is because not a single player on coach Gregg Popovich's team averaged more than 30 minutes per game during the regular season (the only team in the league with that distinction), and only three averaged more than 26 mpg. Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard were useful players last season in fantasy leagues, but none of them offered the type of value you'd expect from the three best players on a championship team.

This all comes down to coaching.

Popovich has long been ahead of the curve in terms of resting players throughout the regular season. He can do this because the Spurs are a very deep team, but it's also a conscious organizational philosophy. Such philosophies and coaching styles matter in fantasy basketball for obvious reasons. If a coach always gives his starters huge minutes, owners can draft those players with confidence, and on the flipside, players on teams like the Spurs need to have a lower value on draft day than their true talent would otherwise dictate.

For the third season in a row, I will use data from past tendencies to rank all 30 coaches from best to worst in terms of how much they will aid fantasy owners during the upcoming season. As always, I looked at their past 1-5 years as a head coach and calculated how many players played 30-plus mpg, and how many players played 24-plus mpg. In addition, field goals and three-pointers attempted per game were calculated over the same 1-5 year period. The coaches were then split into five tiers, based on how many players on average received the all-important 30-plus mpg, with the fifth tier consisting of first-year coaches. I also projected each coach's movement this season within the coaching tiers based on current rosters and past trends.

Note: Only players that played in one-third of a team's games were factored in and when possible I avoided taking into account seasons when a coach took over or got fired by a team halfway through the season.

First Tier: 5.5 - 4.2 players seeing 30+ mpg

Jacque Vaughn, Magic, third season, all with Orlando
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 5.5 players per season, 24+ mpg: 6.5 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Arron Afflalo (35.0 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 83.5 (82.7 last season, league rank - 14th), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 19.1 (19.5 last season, league rank - 21st).
Projected movement:Holding Steady

Vaughn should really be given his own tier. To average 5.5 players with 30-plus mpg over two seasons while also giving 6.5 players 24-plus mpg, is an amazing coaching feat. Granted, of the six players on last season's Magic team to average 30-plus mpg, only one, Arron Afflalo, averaged more than 32 mpg. Nonetheless, drafting players on the Magic makes a ton of sense as long as you pick the right ones. If Vaughn is to once again be the fantasy phenomenon Don Dada, there are six pretty obvious guys that could see 30-plus mpg on this season's squad. Two are locks: Nikola Vucevic and Victor Oladipo. Four players have compelling cases: Channing Frye, Aaron Gordon, Tobias Harris and Elfrid Payton. Frye was a surprise free agency splash for Orlando, and offers them the stretch four they have coveted for some time. While the Magic made a significant commitment to Frye, he only saw 28.2 mpg last season with Phoenix, and the Suns didn't have talented young players challenging him for minutes at the four, whereas Gordon and Harris both figure to push him this season. If the Magic go small when Vucevic is out of the game, allowing Frye to see some time at the five, he would be a solid bet to crack 30 mpg, but if not, he'll settle in around last season's total. It would be very un-Magic of Vaughn to not award Gordon 30 mpg, as an extremely promising high draft pick, who offers more on the defensive end than possibly anyone else on the roster. It would also be surprising to not see Harris awarded 30 mpg for a third season in a row with Orlando, but his obstacle is clear -- there are a lot of big bodies that deserve minutes. It would be a good bet to project the Magic to often use a big lineup that allows Vucevic and two of Frye/Gordon/Harris to be on the court together. This would help ensure that all three bigs deliver for their owners. If a sixth player is to challenge for 30 mpg, the obvious choice would be lottery pick, Elfrid Payton, who will be given the chance to run the point from day one. However, there's a chance he could struggle, playing against elite competition for the first time, and in that scenario, Luke Ridnour becomes a dark horse option to sneak into the 30 mpg club. None of the players on the Magic should be first, or even second round picks in fantasy leagues, but 5-7 should be drafted in the vast majority of formats.

Mike Budenholzer, Hawks, second season, all with Atlanta
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 5.0 players per season, 24+ mpg: 6.0 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Kyle Korver (33.9 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 81.6 (81.6 last season, league rank - 24th), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 25.8 (25.8 last season, league rank - 2nd).
Projected movement:Holding Steady

Fantasy owners should love coach Bud. The guy wanted to give five guys 30-plus mpg so bad in his debut season, that DeMarre Carroll even cracked the 30 mpg threshold with ease. Carroll is a nice player, but on most teams he would have been viewed as an energy guy off the bench. Not on coach Bud's watch! Thanks to his 32.1 mpg, he was able to post 11.1 points, 5.5 boards, 1.5 steals and 1.3 three-pointers per game while shooting 47 percent from the field. That's not going to win any leagues, but it's a useful line in most formats, and he was the fifth best fantasy option on the Hawks. The other four -- Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, Paul Millsap, Al Horford -- are well known fantasy entities at this point, and are locks to once again see 30-plus mpg. In coach Bud you should trust.

Terry Stotts, Trail Blazers, seventh season, third with Portland
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 4.8 players per season, 24+ mpg: 6.2 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:LaMarcus Aldridge (36.2 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 82.1 (87.0 last season, league rank - 3rd), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 19.6 (25.3 last season, league rank - 3rd).
Projected movement:Slightly Up

Some coaching tier legends are simply just doing their job. Stotts was once again handed the keys to a Trail Blazers roster with as clear a starting five as one could ask for, and a drop-off in talent from the starters to the bench. A perennial top-three finisher in the coaching tiers, Stotts did what he is wont to do, giving all five starters more than 31 mpg in 2013-14. If anything, the Blazers lost a little depth in the offseason, as last year's sixth man and the only other player to see more than 15 mpg, Mo Williams , has moved on. The Blazers were incredibly healthy last season, with LaMarcus Aldridge (69 games) being the only starter to not play in all 82 games. If that health can continue, you can count on Stotts doing his part to make the Blazers the best team to target on draft day.

Flip Saunders, Timberwolves, 17th season, first season of second stint with Minnesota
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 4.6 players per season, 24+ mpg: 5.4 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Kevin Love (36.3 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 80.9, 3Pt FG attempted per game: 15.8.
Projected movement:Down

The Timberwolves may be the toughest team to project from a playing time standpoint. Nikola Pekovic will see 30-plus mpg as long as he's healthy, but after that, there are some serious questions. Many of the teams Saunders has coached recently, like those great Pistons teams of the early 2000s, were in win-now mode, and had a clear hierarchy of starters and bench players, which made his decisions about playing time pretty easy. His average of 4.6 players above 30 mpg per season may not translate to this roster. Andrew Wiggins is the franchise, and will presumably be treated as such, but I could see an old school coach like Saunders being pretty frustrating for fantasy owners with regards to Wiggins' workload during his rookie season. There will be moments when Wiggins' youth will be apparent, and with as much depth on the wing as the T-Wolves have, Saunders could be tempted to try to "teach" Wiggins by pulling him when he screws up, instead of teaching him in practice and during timeouts. But let's assume Wiggins is given all the minutes he can handle. This will create a logjam for time at the other wing spot between Corey Brewer, Kevin Martin, Chase Budinger and rookie Zach LeVine. A point guard in college, LeVine would naturally see some backup run behind Ricky Rubio at point guard, except the T-Wolves also have competent veterans Mo Williams and J.J. Barea on the roster. This also raises the question of how much faith the T-Wolves still have in Rubio. He all of a sudden doesn't seem like such a lock to crack 30 mpg again. Thaddeus Young projects to take on a good portion of Kevin Love's vacated minutes at the four, but one also must assume that Anthony Bennett will be given a chance to earn minutes there as well. Promising sophomore Gorgui Dieng is a natural center, and profiles better as Pekovic's backup, as neither player can play away from the basket. There's a lot of interesting pieces on Minnesota's roster, but they certainly don't fit, and Saunders is not a skilled enough coach to make them fit. Besides Pekovic, Wiggins and, at the right price, Young and Rubio, it's probably wise to let Timberwolves be somebody else's problem in your league.

Lionel Hollins, Nets, eighth season, first with Brooklyn
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 4.2 players per season, 24+ mpg: 5.4 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Joe Johnson (32.6 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 81.5, 3Pt FG attempted per game: 12.7.
Projected movement:Down

Hollins' past coaching tendencies were all established with a Memphis Grizzlies roster that remained relatively constant for his tenure with the team. He always had 4-5 players who were clearly the best at their position on the team, and they could all handle a sizable workload. That is not quite the case with Brooklyn. Sure, Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, and, health permitting, Brook Lopez should each eclipse 30 mpg, but predicting the minutes gets a lot dicier at the three and the four. Kevin Garnett and Andrei Kirilenko should not be relied upon for close to 30 mpg at their ages, but they will likely enter the season as the starters. Alan Anderson, Mirza Teletovic and Mason Plumlee are the most likely candidates to see minutes off the bench at the forward spots, but it's hard to draft any of the above in a standard league. Plumlee has the most promise of any of the Nets' options at forward, but unfortunately he profiles better as Lopez's backup. Speaking of Lopez, if he can be fully healthy for all or most of this season, he could be in for a monster year. Part of the reason Jason Kidd left was that he didn't want to center the offense around Lopez. All you have to do is look at the 12.7 three-point attempts per game by Hollins' last five teams to see that he's more than comfortable dumping the ball down low. But all things considered, Hollins should see his stock take a dip as a fantasy friendly coach in 2014-15.

Second Tier: 4.0 - 3.4 players seeing 30+ mpg

Brad Stevens, Celtics, second season, all with Boston
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 4.0 players per season, 24+ mpg: 8.0 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Jeff Green (34.2 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 83.9 (83.9 last season, league rank - 10th), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 21.1 (21.1 last season, league rank - 18th).
Projected movement:Down

This Celtics roster is a mess. As if Stevens' job wasn't already tough enough, he'll now cruelly be tasked with trying to find a role for Evan Turner. A testament to just how bad the 76ers were last season, Turner was a able to earn 34.9 mpg during his time in Philly in 2013-14, but will now be, at best, the seventh man on another team that has no realistic playoff aspirations. The big question with this Celtics team will be how Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart are used. Smart will presumably come off the bench to start the season, but he's NBA ready now, and could supplant Bradley in the starting lineup if the Celtics want to shake things up when they inevitably get off to a rough start. Rondo and Jeff Green are really the only locks to see 30-plus mpg again this season. James Young is a promising rookie, but unless the Celtics decide to not play Turner at some point this season, the road to minutes for Young is too complicated for him to be considered on draft day. Minutes shouldn't be a problem for Jared Sullinger or Brandon Bass, who will be backed up by Tyler Zeller and Kelly Olynyk. However, of the two, Sullinger has far more fantasy potential, and has the more realistic chance to reach 30 mpg. Last season's four players over 30 mpg was a bit misleading for Stevens, as Rondo and Jordan Crawford (barely) qualified, although both barely played in a third of the Celtics' games. This season the safe money seems to be on two or three players getting to 30 mpg, which will send Stevens tumbling down a tier or two.

Steve Clifford, Hornets, second season, all with Charlotte
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 4.0 players per season, 24+ mpg: 5.0 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Kemba Walker (35.8 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 82.1 (82.1 last season, league rank - 21st), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 17.9 (17.9 last season, league rank - 27th).
Projected movement:Down

There's no doubt this Hornets team got better in the offseason, but they also got less predictable from a fantasy standpoint. Kemba Walker and Al Jefferson will have no problem getting 30-plus mpg again, and really, they were the only two legitimate contributors in standard leagues last season. There are some new pieces in play, however. Free agent signee Lance Stephenson should hit the 30-plus mpg mark as well, which will result in Gerald Henderson seeing his minutes significantly cut from the 32 mpg he saw last season. Last seasons' fourth member of the 30 mpg club for the Hornets was the departed Josh McRoberts, and his minutes should be divided up between Cody Zeller and Noah Vonleh. It's possible Zeller settles into seeing near starter's minutes, but Vonleh is the more talented prospect, so it could be a competition all season, which would render both players fantasy afterthoughts. The Stephenson acquisition will only help start the slow process of phasing Michael Kidd-Gilchrist out of the conversation, as Walker, Stephenson and Henderson will be able to play alongside one another for long stretches. Clifford seems to be well on his way to a long career as a head coach in the NBA, but he should drop a few spots in the coaching tiers, as there are only three reasonable bets to see 30 mpg on the Hornets this season.

Dave Joerger, Grizzlies, second season, all with Memphis
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 4.0 players per season, 24+ mpg: 5.0 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Zach Randolph (34.2 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 82.0 (82.0 last season, league rank - 22nd), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 14.0 (14.0 last season, league rank - 30th).
Projected movement:Down

Joerger did what he could in his first season with a Grizzlies team that was a shell of the former contending teams Lionel Hollins used to coach. Not only have the Grizzlies' options on the perimeter become extremely subpar over the past couple seasons, but they have been left in the dust by the rest of the league in terms of three-point shooting. To only attempt 14 three-pointers per game as a team during the 2013-14 season is comical, but this was a product of poor roster construction, not an indictment of Joerger's abilities. Mike Conley was the only player on the roster who possessed both aptitude in three-point shooting and the ability to be an above average basketball player. In fact, it was a testament to Conley and Joerger that the Grizzlies were able to win 50 games with Marc Gasol missing almost a third of the season. Gasol, Conley and Zach Randolph will all see well above 30 mpg again this season, but it's difficult to find a fourth player to join them on this roster. Courtney Lee qualified last season, but just barely. With a healthy Tony Allen and Vince Carter joining the fray, the minutes should be split by enough role players to limit Memphis to just three players with 30-plus mpg. Also, don't look now, but the corpse of Tayshaun Prince may remain the starting small forward for another season, which gives hope to dead bodies and zombie enthusiasts everywhere.

Brett Brown, 76ers, second season, all with Philadelphia
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 4.0 players per season, 24+ mpg: 6.0 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Evan Turner (34.9 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 87.2 (87.2 last season, league rank - 2nd), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 22.5 (22.5 last season, league rank - 13th).
Projected movement:Down

Not since Master P has anyone repped the tank quite as hard as the 2013-14 76ers. In fact, they tanked so hard that the league has formed plans to make the lottery more random, so as not to reward the tankers quite as much. The 76ers met this news with outrage, "We're not done tanking!" was basically the gist of it. Brown's bosses have good reason to be upset, at least as it pertains to the roster. Predictably, of the four players to see 30-plus mpg last year for the 76ers, sophomore point guard Michael Carter-Williams is the only one remaining on the roster, and it's not like Evan Turner, Thaddeus Young and Spencer Hawes were replaced by comparable talents. Sure, Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel have plenty of promise, but in addition to playing the same position, they are both pretty raw and have yet to even attempt to put their potentially injury-prone bodies through the grind of an NBA season. But Embiid and Noel look like Olajuwon and Sampson compared to what Philly will roll out at the two and the three. Rookie K.J. McDaniels will duke it out with Alexey Shved and Tony Wroten for minutes at the two, and Hollis Thompson and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute will both see playing time at the three. Needless to say, MCW, Embiid and Noel are the only players worth contemplating in most drafts this season.

Kevin McHale, Rockets, sixth season, fourth with Houston
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 3.8 players per season, 24+ mpg: 5.8 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:James Harden (38.0 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 82.1 (80.5 last season, league rank - 26th), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 21.7 (26.6 last season, league rank - 1st).
Projected movement:Up

The Rockets weren't quite contenders last season, but it seemed like they were close. But they were perhaps the biggest losers this offseason, not only failing to land Carmelo Anthony, but also losing Chandler Parsons to Dallas, and replacing him with Trevor Ariza. So McHale enters the season with a slightly depleted roster, and a team that remains in win-now mode. Jeremy Lin's departure, while not a major development, almost ensures that Patrick Beverley will once again join Dwight Howard and James Harden in seeing 30-plus mpg, and Ariza has no choice but to step into Parsons' role as a heavy minutes earner, and a volume three-point shooter. He may not share Parsons' reputation as a three-point marksman, but Ariza was actually a significantly better shooter from behind the arc last season, shooting 40.7 percent to Parsons' 37 percent. While most would argue that Parsons is the superior player, by virtue of joining McHale's offense that ranked first in the league in three-point attempts last season, Ariza may actually be on par with Parsons as a fantasy option this season. Houston didn't do anything to upgrade the options at the four, so Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas are once again the top options. However, now that Omer Asik is gone, there won't be any weird two-center lineups, which could allow Jones, who saw 27.3 mpg last season, to be the fifth Rockets' starter in the 30-mpg club in 2014-15.

Rick Carlisle, Mavericks, 13th season, seventh with Dallas
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 3.6 players per season, 24+ mpg: 5.8 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Monta Ellis (36.9 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 82.2 (83.6 last season, league rank - 11th), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 21.0 (22.9 last season, league rank - 12th).
Projected movement:Slightly Up

The Mavs may have surprised some by making the playoffs last season and giving the Spurs the toughest test they would face during their NBA title run. But at this point, Carlisle and Dirk Nowitzki doing great things with a less-than-great supporting cast should not come as a shock. However, this season the Mavs actually have a bonafide starting five, with solid depth at every position. Offseason acquisitions Chandler Parsons and Tyson Chandler should instantly join Nowitzki and Monta Ellis with 30-plus mpg, forming a top-four that few teams in the league can match. At point guard, Devin Harris and Jameer Nelson figure to split the duties fairly evenly, making it difficult to trust either in fantasy, and all but ruling out any chance of a fifth Maverick seeing 30-plus mpg.

Doc Rivers, Clippers, 16th season, second with Los Angeles
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 3.6 players per season, 24+ mpg: 6.0 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Blake Griffin (35.8 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 78.4 (82.5 last season, league rank - 17th), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 17.5 (24.0 last season, league rank - 8th).
Projected movement:Holding Steady

Last season Rivers demonstrated just how big of an impact a head coach can have on a roster that had been previously handled by a blithering buffoon (Vinny Del Negro). He turned Blake Griffin into an MVP candidate and embraced the previously dismissed notion of giving DeAndre Jordan big minutes (35.0 mpg last season versus just 24.5 mpg in 2012-13). The Clippers won one more game in 2013-14 than they did in Del Negro's last season as coach, but Chris Paul missed 20 games due to injury during Rivers' debut season, so it was significantly more impressive than the one-win improvement indicates. Not much has changed on this year's version of the Clippers, as Paul, Griffin and Jordan are all locks for around 35 mpg, and Jamal Crawford, J.J. Redick and Matt Barnes are once again shoo-ins for 26-31 mpg.

Tom Thibodeau, Bulls, fifth season, all with Chicago
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 3.5 players per season, 24+ mpg: 6.0 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Jimmy Butler (38.7 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 81.3 (80.2 last season, league rank - 27th), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 16.9 (17.8 last season, league rank - 28th).
Projected movement:Holding Steady

There are three kinds of NBA rosters, those with many talented players (think San Antonio), those with very few proven, talented players (think Philadelphia or Milwaukee) and those with 3-5 really talented players and a bunch of scrubs. Chicago has seemingly always fallen into the last group under Thibodeau's reign, and he has done what a good coach must with that type of roster -- he rides his horses until they collapse in a heap on the dirt. It makes owning a Bull a high-risk, high-reward proposition. If the player stays healthy, you're guaranteed a lot of production, because the minutes will be there. But there's always the chance that the gigantic workload will lead to an injury. However, the roster at Thibodeau's disposal this season is the most loaded he's had in his tenure with the Bulls, so we could see a shift in his tendencies. If the talk coming out of the USA basketball camp is to be believed, Derrick Rose is explosive and poised to handle a significant workload this season. We know how Thibs feels about Jimmy Butler's ability to handle big minutes, and he has little competition at the two, so he's another lock for 30-plus mpg. The forward spots are where the intrigue lies. Doug McDermott is the most recognizable name at the three, but Mike Dunleavy more than held his own last season, and Thibodeau values players who know his system. Pau Gasol, Taj Gibson and Nikola Mirotic will all be scrambling for minutes either playing alongside Joakim Noah, or spelling Noah for 12 minutes or so per night. Unless Mirotic gets burried, or someone suffers an injury, the math simply won't allow for any of the three to crack 30 mpg. If Thibodeau can embrace a new way of managing players' minutes this season, he may finally begin to drop in the coaching tiers, although Rose, Butler and Noah should all remain safe fantasy options from a minutes standpoint.

Byron Scott, Lakers, 14th season, first with Los Angeles
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 3.4 players per season, 24+ mpg: 6.4 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Jodie Meeks (33.2 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 81.4, 3Pt FG attempted per game: 19.0.
Projected movement:Slightly Down

These aren't your father's Lakers. They aren't even your older brother's Lakers. Kobe Bryant seems to have been surrounded by a bevvy of less fiery souls to do his bidding while not possessing the self-confidence or encouragement from outside parties to question Mamba's orders. Jeremy Lin, Wesley Johnson, Carlos Boozer and Jordan Hill are projected to start alongside Bryant, with Steve Nash, Nick Young, Xavier Henry, Julius Randle and Ed Davis offering basically the exact same talent level in reserve. Nine relatively interchangeable and uninspiring pieces surrounding one of the greatest players of all time may not be a recipe for Bryant to win as his career slowly draws to a close, but it is, if nothing else, poetic as hell. What's lost in the seismic shift in power among L.A.'s two NBA franchises, is that while the Lakers will be lucky to win 40 games, they will be incredibly fun to watch. Sadly, for fantasy owners, trying to extract value out of this roster on draft day with any level of certainty will be a very tall order. Obviously Bryant is worthy of a top-50 pick, just based on the upside of him staying healthy for 60-plus games. But there is so much room for lineup shuffling as the Lakers inevitably lose more games than they win, that it's hard to peg the next best options. Hill has always shown promise when given the chance, so he might be the best bet after Bryant. The Lakers have no contractual reasons to play Boozer big minutes if he struggles, and the fans will want to see Julius Randle early and often. Anyone who invests in Nash at this point in his career is living in the past, but theres a chance he could play just enough to limit Lin's value. Young was excellent at times last season, but it's hard to see where he'll get 30-plus minutes, or the amount of shots he grew accustomed to last season. The likely truth is that after Bryant, Hill and maybe Lin, there's nobody on this roster who won't be available on waivers at some point during the upcoming season.

Stan Van Gundy, Pistons, ninth season, first with Detroit
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 3.4 players per season, 24+ mpg: 5.8 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Josh Smith (35.5 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 78.2, 3Pt FG attempted per game: 26.3.
Projected movement:Holding Steady

Of the four retread coaches hired this season (Van Gundy, Hollins, Saunders and Scott), Van Gundy is easily the best of the bunch. In his five most recent seasons as a head coach, his teams always averaged between 78.0 and 78.6 field-goal attempts per game, while also always averaging more than 25 three-point attempts per game. Over the past two season that we've been keeping track of these numbers, Van Gundy is by far the most consistent on both fronts, and he's consistently right. A coach shouldn't use a run-and-gun style unless that's the only way a roster can be competitive, but a coach should also try to have his team take as many good three-point shots as possible, assuming there are a few competent long-range shooters on the roster. Van Gundy has consistently employed both strategies, and they have been optimal for his rosters. Working under the premise that Van Gundy is a really good coach, not only would it be unwise to expect Josh Smith to lead the team in mpg again, it would be foolish to expect him to crack the 30 mpg threshold in 2014-15. He doesn't fit into what Van Gundy is going to want to do. There isn't a trade market for a player of Smith's caliber on that kind of contract, so look for him to work as a role player off the bench, or perhaps find a spot in Van Gundy's dog house. Brandon Jennings, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond should all be locks for 30-plus mpg. Between Smith, Caron Butler and Kyle Singler, there won't be a 30-plus mpg guy at the three, but if Kentavious Caldwell-Pope doesn't impress Van Gundy, Jodie Meeks could crack 30 mpg at the two, and is a solid bet to lead the team in three-point attempts, after shooting 40.1 percent from downtown last season.

Third Tier: 3.0 players seeing 30+ mpg

Dwane Casey, Raptors, sixth season, fourth with Toronto
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 3.0 players per season, 24+ mpg: 5.8 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:DeMar DeRozan (38.2 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 79.6 (81.9 last season, league rank - 23rd), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 17.0 (23.4 last season, league rank - 11th).
Projected movement:Holding Steady

Casey gave five players 30-plus mpg in his first season as a head coach with Minnesota during the 2005-06 season, but he has since developed into a smarter, less fantasy-friendly coach. Last season was his most talented roster in three years as coach of the Raptors, and yet he only gave 30-plus mpg to DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. He is not the minutes czar that Popovich is, but you get the sense that he would be if he had that kind of depth to work with. Casey has jumped aboard the league-wide three-pointer bandwagon, letting his players hoist 23.4 treys per game last season, compared to 20.3 in 2012-13, when he had basically the same roster. Terrence Ross has a chance to join DeRozan and Lowry in the 30-mpg club this season, after averaging 29.0 mpg as a starter following the Rudy Gay trade last season. Jonas Valanciunas also has a chance to see an increase from the 28.2 mpg he received last season, but one could have easily made the case for Valanciunas to play more last season as well. Casey clearly has reservations about setting his young center loose. There are too many bodies at the four for anyone to crack 30 mpg, with Amir Johnson figuring to lead the group with something in the 24-29 mpg range. A relatively safe bet would be for either Ross or Valanciunas to make for a third Raptor in the 30-mpg club, but it would be greedy to expect both young players to accomplish that feat.

Monty Williams, Pelicans, fifth season, all with New Orleans
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 3.0 players per season, 24+ mpg: 6.0 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Anthony Davis (35.2 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 79.6 (82.5 last season, league rank - 17th), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 15.2 (15.9 last season, league rank - 29th).
Projected movement:Up

Is Tyreke Evans a small forward? Can Anthony Davis, Ryan Anderson and Omer Asik all be on the court at the same time? The answers are probably no and no, but Williams may be forced to entertain both questions considering the illogical makeup of this roster. Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon and Davis are all shoe-ins for 30-plus mpg, but it gets a little hazier with the other three key pieces on the Pelicans. Last season, Anderson was leading the team with 36.1 mpg before missing the final 51 games with a back injury, so we know Williams will want to find a way to give him major playing time. Against bigger small forwards, the Pelicans may be able to get away with having all three big men on the court at the same time, but it will never be ideal on the defensive end. Look for Asik to once again be dealt the short end of the stick, as was the case in Houston. The Turkish 7-footer will certainly see more than the 20.2 mpg he averaged last season playing behind Dwight Howard, but this was not the ideal landing spot for him from a fantasy standpoint. The fact that Evans is the least talented of the Pelicans' six best players will also probably leave him on the outside looking in of the 30 mpg club, and he'll struggle to be consistently productive as he plays off the ball and out of position.

Scott Brooks, Thunder, seventh season, all with Oklahoma City
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 3.0 players per season, 24+ mpg: 5.2 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Kevin Durant (38.5 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 80.5 (82.7 last season, league rank - 15th), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 18.8 (22.4 last season, league rank - 14th).
Projected movement:Slightly Up

Brooks is pretty easy to predict from a fantasy standpoint. He'll give his three stars a ton of playing time, and he'll find a way to frustrate NBA fans to no end with his refusal to play young, talented role players over aging veterans. Reggie Jackson saw 28.5 mpg last season, but it's hard to project that output for 2014-15, because a big reason for his extended playing time was Russell Westbrook's injury and subsequent lessened workload. Fortunately, with Thabo Sefolosha, Caron Butler and Derek Fisher all out of the picture, Brooks should have no choice but to give Jackson close to 30 mpg playing alongside Westbrook in an unconventional backcourt. The bigger question comes at the center position. Will this finally be the year that Brooks wisely buries Kendrick Perkins on the bench? Steven Adams is clearly the real deal, but Nick Collison has been a better player than Perkins for the last three seasons, and has never unseated Mr. Mean Mug. The safe money is on Brooks evenly distributing minutes among all three Thunder big men, and in the process, making them all useless for fantasy purposes.

Jeff Hornacek, Suns, second season, all with Phoenix
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 3.0 players per season, 24+ mpg: 7.0 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Goran Dragic (35.1 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 83.5 (83.5 last season, league rank - 12th), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 25.1 (25.1 last season, league rank - 4th).
Projected movement:Slightly Up

The coach of the year award should pretty much always go to Gregg Popovich as long as he's in the league, but if one wanted to reward the coach whose team outperformed their preseason expectations by the largest margin, last year's unquestioned winner would have been Hornacek. Gerald Green, P.J. Tucker, Miles Plumlee, Markieff Morris and Channing Frye all emerged as ownable fantasy options at certain points during the season, which speaks to Hornacek's ability to extract the very most out of the talent he is given. Frye has departed and T.J. Warren and Isaiah Thomas will be incorporated into the Suns' core group this season. Despite Thomas and Green competently waiting on the bench at the start of games, cornerstones Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe should still have no problem seeing 30-plus mpg, which makes the aforementioned reserves unappealing on draft day. Plumlee looks poised to improve upon last season's breakout campaign, as he'll come back better and more confident after a summer with the U.S. world cup team. With only Alex Len waiting behind him at center, Plumlee should join Dragic and Bledsoe as a 30 mpg workhorse. Tucker (30.7 mpg last season) has a coin flip's chance of being a fourth Sun to eclipse the 30 mpg threshold, but that's probably where the list of reliable fantasy options ends in the Valley of the Sun.

Brian Shaw, Nuggets, second season, all with Denver
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 3.0 players per season, 24+ mpg: 6.0 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Ty Lawson (35.8 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 85.9 (85.9 last season, league rank -), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 23.9 (23.9 last season, league rank -).
Projected movement:Slightly Down

Shaw made it difficult on Nuggets fans and fantasy owners alike last season, mixing up his rotations on a regular basis, and limiting reliably significant playing time to Ty Lawson and, debatably, Wilson Chandler and Randy Foye. Thankfully the acquisition of Arron Afflalo should offer a second rock-solid option in fantasy, while also making Foye a complete afterthought. With a healthy Danilo Gallinari joining Chandler on the depth chart at small forward, the minutes distribution at the three is perhaps the most fantasy-pertinent topic surrounding the Nuggets this season, as both players have proven capable contributors when the minutes are there. However, considering that Gallinari has averaged 44 games and Chandler has averaged 60.5 games over their past four seasons in the NBA (Chandler played in China for most of the 2011-12 season), this could just be a matter of whoever's healthier gets the minutes, and therefore it's a situation owners should probably steer clear of due to the inherent volatility. As for the big men, there are too many options for Kenneth Faried to be assured of 30-plus mpg (he only saw 27.2 mpg last season), but he's by far the most reliable of the bunch, and, like Miles Plumlee, he could see a similar bump in production and confidence after playing with the world cup team.

Mike Malone, Kings, second season, all with Sacramento
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 3.0 players per season, 24+ mpg: 7.0 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Isaiah Thomas (34.7 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 82.5 (82.5 last season, league rank - 16th), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 18.0 (18.0 last season, league rank - 26th).
Projected movement:Holding Steady

The Kings are a pretty easy team to assess from a fantasy standpoint. Malone showed last season that he likes to ride his starting point guard, with Isaiah Thomas leading the team with 34.7 mpg, so with Thomas gone, newcomer Darren Collison should see a similar abundance of playing time. Rudy Gay (34.4 mpg) and DeMarcus Cousins (32.4 mpg) will once again easily eclipse the 30-mpg mark, but that's where the list of useful fantasy options on the Kings ends. Ben McLemore and Nik Stauskas should cancel each other out at shooting guard, and everyone has seen the Jason Thompson/Carl Landry/Derrick Williams movie before, and it's been deservedly panned by critics and fans alike.

Frank Vogel, Pacers, fifth season, all with Indiana
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 3.0 players per season, 24+ mpg: 5.5 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Paul George (36.2 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 81.3 (80.2 last season, league rank - 28th), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 18.7 (18.8 last season, league rank - 25th).
Projected movement:Holding Steady

Vogel probably had the most detrimental season for any NBA coach based on the public perception regarding his competency at the All-Star break, and the way we view him now. The Pacers were riding high at the midway point, and then completely collapsed down the stretch. Now he could be coaching for his job, and he'll be without his superstar, Paul George (season-ending leg surgery), and his second best perimeter player from last season, Lance Stephenson (now with Charlotte via free agency). Despite not being ranked very high on the coaching tiers, Vogel leaned heavily on his starters last season -- arguably to a fault. George Hill, David West and Roy Hibbert should still all see around 30-35 minutes per game, but there's a big drop-off in talent after Indiana's three remaining starters from last year's roster. It's hard to imagine Rodney Stuckey or C.J. Miles really distinguishing themselves at the shooting guard spot, and it's even more difficult to see Solomon Hill or Chris Copeland becoming a key fantasy contributor at the three.

Fourth Tier: 2.8 - 2.0 players seeing 30+ mpg

Randy Wittman, Wizards, ninth season, fourth with Washington
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 2.8 players per season, 24+ mpg: 6.4 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:John Wall (36.3 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 82.3 (84.4 last season, league rank - 9th), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 16.8 (20.8 last season, league rank - 19th).
Projected movement:Up

Wittman is the Fredo Corleone of NBA coaches. It's incredibly difficult to take him seriously as a guy who can be trusted to get things done. That said, fantasy owners should take serious notice of how helpful he was last season. Bucking a trend of being fantasy hindrance, he gave four of the five starters 32-plus mpg last season, and Nene (29.4 mpg) barely missed the 30-mpg threshold. The only change heading into this season is Paul Pierce replacing Trevor Ariza at the three, and while it's difficult to project the 16-year veteran to see 30 mpg like Ariza did last season, he should still be very productive. Pierce saw a career-low 28 mpg last season with Brooklyn, and he may replicate that number again this season. However, don't rule out a tick up in minutes for Pierce, if he comes into camp in great shape. Martell Webster will miss the first couple months of the season after undergoing back surgery in late-June, and after Webster, the cupboard is pretty bare at small forward, which could force the Wizards to give Pierce more run than anticipated early in the season.

Erik Spoelstra, Heat, seventh season
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 2.6 players per season, 24+ mpg: 5.2 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:LeBron James (37.7 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 77.8 (76.5 last season, league rank - 30th), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 19.1 (22.3 last season, league rank - 15th).
Projected movement:Slightly Up

As perennially underrated as anyone in the profession, Spoelstra is this author's pick to win coach of the year next season. He lost his favorite toy, but sometimes that's when the magic can happen. Don't be surprised if he coaches his ass off in 2014-15. This Heat team will be described as scrappy, feisty and hard-nosed, and they will surprise many on the way to 50-plus wins and the third best record in the East. It will be fascinating to watch how Spo manages Dwyane Wade's minutes, and how Chris Bosh is used on offense. Last year Wade only played in 54 games, primarily as part of a planned program to try to keep him fresh for the last two rounds of the playoffs. Reports suggest that he has finally decided to spend an offseason getting lean, as opposed to getting ripped, and there will be a major chip on his shoulder to prove that he can still be the best player on a contender. The Heat will probably try to play him in more than two thirds of this season's games, but with that extra action, comes an added risk of an injury occurring, so drafting Wade is one of the most high-risk/high-reward propositions in fantasy this season. With Bosh, there are no questions about his ability to handle a heavy workload, but there should be questions about whether he can return to being more well-rounded on offense, after developing into basically a stretch four last season. Luol Deng, the third candidate on the Heat to see 30-plus minutes per game, is still just 29 years old, and if he can stay healthy, the 10-year pro could be a bargain on draft day. Rookie Shabazz Napier figures to limit Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole's fantasy relevance, and we've seen Josh McRoberts in a starting role before, and it's not very intriguing.

Jason Kidd, Bucks, second season, first with Milwaukee
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 2.0 players per season, 24+ mpg: 4.0 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Joe Johnson (32.6 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 77.9 (77.9 last season, league rank - 29th), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 23.4 (23.4 last season, league rank - 10th).
Projected movement:Holding Steady

There are literally 13 players on this Bucks team that have a chance of seeing 24 mpg this season. Quantity over quality has never been in effect more than it is on Kidd's second roster in as many seasons, so predicting who will be useful in fantasy is a tall task indeed. One thing we know about Kidd from his time in Brooklyn is that he prefers a small-ball lineup, and his misgivings about building the Nets around Brook Lopez suggest that he'll want his new team to get up and down and shoot a bevy of three-pointers. Unfortunately this doesn't do much to help narrow down the players he'll use heavily, as the Bucks' entire roster is a group of players who can thrive at a fast pace. The lone shoo-in for 30-plus mpg would seem to be Jabari Parker, as he's the new face of the franchise, and should have little trouble thriving on the offensive end of the floor as a rookie. Brandon Knight, who led the team in minutes (33.3 mpg) last season, is probably the second best bet for 30-plus mpg, although Kendall Marshall, Nate Wolters and Jerry Bayless offer Kidd three capable backups if he ever sours on Knight as the starting point guard. Giannis Antetokounmpo will be the second-most exciting player to draft in fantasy behind Parker, especially given his numerous highlight-reel plays for Greece in the world cup this summer. But if O.J. Mayo or Jared Dudley come to camp with renewed desire and decreased body fat, Kidd will once again have competent backups at the guard position. The murkiness in the waters of Lake Michigan continue with Ersan Ilyasova, John Henson and Khris Middleton all vying for playing time at the four, not to mention that Parker will be utilized as a stretch four at times. Larry Sanders is another player with a legitimate chance at 30-plus mpg, just because there are fewer options behind him on the depth chart (Zaza Pachulia and Henson) than at any of the other positions on the Bucks' roster. However, Sanders also comes with plenty of risk as a noted space cadet with well-documented off-court antics and a propensity to pick up fouls at an absurd rate. In the end, Parker, Knight, Sanders and the Greek Freak, as a darkhorse option, are the only Bucks with a legit shot at 30-plus mpg, and thus, the only players worth targeting on draft day.

Gregg Popovich, Spurs, 19th season, all with San Antonio
Rotation trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: 30+ mpg: 2.0 players per season, 24+ mpg: 5.0 players per season
Most minutes in 2013-14:Tony Parker (29.4 mpg)
Offensive trends over last 1-5 seasons as head coach: FG attempted per game: 81.9 (83.5 last season, league rank - 13th), 3Pt FG attempted per game: 20.8 (21.4 last season, league rank - 16th).
Projected movement:Slightly Down

There's nothing left to say about Pop that hasn't already been said about Leonardo da Vinci and Sir Isaac Newton. He's possibly the greatest coach ever in any sport, and yet he's the worst coach for fantasy basketball purposes. We all knew coming into the season that Kawhi Leonard was a budding superstar. Unfortunately, we didn't get to see THAT Kawhi until the NBA Finals. It's flawed logic to use hypotheticals with regards to how good Leonard could be in fantasy if he wasn't on the Spurs. We don't know whether he would be this amazing if he had been drafted by a team like the Bucks and hadn't been nurtured under the coaching staff and veteran players in San Antonio. All we know is the player who looked transcendent in each of the last two Finals was purposely given less than 30 mpg last season (29.1 mpg). If you project Leonard to play minutes befitting of his skill in 2014-15, you simply haven't been paying attention. The Spurs' impeccable depth will once again cause the role players to be mediocre options in standard leagues, and while Tim Duncan and Tony Parker warrant ownership in all formats, don't expect 30-plus mpg from either player.

Fifth Tier: First-Year Coaches

David Blatt, Cavaliers, first season
Most minutes in 2013-14:
Projected movement compared to 3.4 median:Slightly Up

Blatt is a relative unknown as an NBA coach. But those familiar with international basketball know of Blatt's immense success, winning various international leagues and tournaments, making him the most distinguished American-born international coach of all time. However, he doesn't have any stints as an assistant in the NBA that would allow us to compare his coaching style to any mentors. Some of Blatt's former players have compared his Princeton-based style to what San Antonio runs, with a lot of off-ball movement and backdoor cuts. Another staple of Blatt's offense is the stretch-four, which is why the Cavaliers were willing to risk their future for a chance at Kevin Love, who, along with Ryan Anderson and Carmelo Anthony, is one of the best three-point shooters among NBA power forwards. But we already knew LeBron James and Love would be immensely valuable fantasy commodities, regardless of who is coaching them. Kyrie Irving could struggle a little in this offense, as he's more of a 1-on-1 player, and will likely cede ball-handling to James at times, although he'll still have no problem getting 30-plus mpg. Dion Waiters could be a great fantasy sleeper, as the Cavs are so thin at shooting guard (and at backup point guard), he'll be given the big minutes he craves if he can knock down his long-range shots and demonstrates good effort on defense. Anderson Varejao figures to thrive in this offense, while Tristan Thompson and Shawn Marion could find fantasy-relevant minutes difficult to come by, as Thompson's more of a plodder and isn't a three-point shooter and Marion is buried behind James and Love. This isn't to say Varejao will see 30-plus mpg. The Cavs know that it's crucial to keep him healthy for the playoffs, so something around the 27.7 mpg he saw last season seems realistic. Blatt could become a fantasy darling this season, as Varejao might be the only starter who won't see 30-plus mpg.

Derek Fisher, Knicks, first season
Most minutes in 2013-14:
Projected movement compared to 3.4 median:Down

Fisher was hired to be Phil Jackson's puppet, but it's not as simple as looking back at what Jackson did as a coach to try and gauge how helpful Fisher will be to fantasy owners. This Knicks roster isn't close, in terms of talent, to any of the rosters Jackson thrived with as a coach. The team is entering the first year of a plan that could take at least a few years to start bearing fruit, so this could turn into an audition of sorts, as Jackson tries to determine which players might be on the contending Knicks teams he hopes to build in the near future. Jose Calderon and Carmelo Anthony would each figure to see 30-plus mpg, but after that it gets a little dicey. J.R. Smith was second on the team with 32.7 mpg last season, but he will presumably need to produce in 2014-15 for Iman Shumpert and Tim Hardaway to remain behind him on the depth chart. Samuel Dalembert should start at center, but he hasn't seen 30-plus mpg since the 2007-08 season, so he should once again be viewed as a low-end fantasy center, with Jason Smith backing him up. The four is a complete mess in New York, as Amar'e Stoudemire figures to enter the season as the starter, although he saw just 22.6 mpg last season while starting in just 21 games. The Knicks are stuck with Andrea Bargnani, so he should see some run at the four, and possibly the five, but it would be foolish to project him for big minutes with Jackson calling the shots. Unless some unlikely candidates step up in Fisher's first year as a coach, there may only be two players above the 30 mpg threshold.

Steve Kerr, Warriors, first season
Most minutes in 2013-14:
Projected movement compared to 3.4 median:Down

Like Derek Fisher, Kerr played under Phil Jackson for much of his career, but he also played under Gregg Popovich, and it would seem more likely that he will try to build a Spurs-esque culture in Golden State than try to recreate any of Jackson's teams, primarily because Jackson's teams featured the type of players one can't simply decide to acquire. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson should once again have no problem leading the team with over 35-plus mpg apiece, because like most teams, the Warriors don't yet have the depth to run a Popovichian rotation. Andre Iguodala and Andrew Bogut are the clear starters at their respective positions, but there's a case to be made that neither player will crack 30 mpg. Bogut obviously won't get there, as he barely cracked 26 mpg last season, and is near the top of the list of players that everyone knows needs limited minutes to try to reduce injury risk. Iguodala saw 32.4 mpg last season, but the 30-year-old veteran fits the mold of the type of player Popovich would definitely try to rest in the regular season, and Kerr may opt to do the same. It's easy to predict Iguodala could slip under 30 mpg this season, especially with Harrison Barnes, Brandon Rush and Draymond Green all capable of seeing minutes at the three. It's a little more controversial to suggest David Lee will dip below 30 mpg this season, but Kerr is likely to consider such a shift in philosophy. Lee is obviously not a stretch four, and while there isn't an ideal three-point shooting power forward on the roster, Kerr will likely give both Barnes and Green the opportunity to thrive in that role. The Warriors no doubt looked to shop Lee this summer, but he'll be getting just less than the max for the next two season, making him effectively immovable, but that doesn't mean Kerr will feel obligated to give him his typical 33-37 mpg. In the end, there's an outside chance that only the splash brothers crack the 30-plus mpg mark during Kerr's debut season.

Quin Snyder, Jazz, first season
Most minutes in 2013-14:
Projected movement compared to 3.4 median:Slightly Down

Snyder plans on running an uptempo, motion offense, which should perfectly complement all of the guards and wings, but it's unclear how Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter will assimilate into the Snyder's system. The Jazz did the right thing by selecting Dante Exum in the draft, but they probably screwed up by taking Trey Burke in last year's draft, and now Snyder will need to find a way to let them play alongside each other, with Alec Burks once again getting the short end of the minutes distribution. Gordon Hayward is back on a new deal and will once again lead the team in minutes per game. The dark horse for major minutes on the Jazz is Rodney Hood, who may have the size to play stretch four in certain lineups, which would give him an avenue to 25-30 mpg. Snyder wants to stress defense, which should give Favors the edge in minutes over Kanter, although Kanter might fit better into the offense Snyder wants to run, so 30-32 mpg seems like the cap on both players, and it's possible that neither big man gets to 30 mpg, as Favors (30.2 mpg) just barely got there last season, and Kanter (26.7 mpg) no longer looks the part of a potential franchise center. It seems safe to assume that one of the big men (probably Favors) and one of the point guards (probably Burke) will join Hayward in the 30 mpg club, but Hayward is in a class by himself on this team in terms of fantasy value.