The Prospect Post: Freshmen On The Rise

Freshmen On The Rise

This article aims to provide an ongoing evaluation of the NBA's rookie class from a fantasy standpoint while also offering deep dives on college players with bright futures. Projecting young talent is very subjective, so an open dialogue is encouraged, both in the comments section and on Twitter: @RealJRAnderson

Prior to the start of the season, D'Angelo Russell and Kevon Looney were considered likely first rounders, and potential lottery picks if they really produced. But neither player was mentioned in the same breath as guys like Jahlil Okafor, Karl Towns and Stanley Johnson. However, few players in the country have done more to improve their draft stock to this point in the season than Russell and Looney, and both seem like good bets to be top-10 picks in June.

D'ANGELO RUSSELL, PG, OHIO STATE

Of these two freshmen, Russell is the one getting all the national hype, and for good reason. Through seven conference games, Russell is averaging 22.3 points, six boards, 5.6 assists, 1.6 steals and 3.3 three-pointers per game. Those are national player of the year level numbers, and it would seem that he has also jumped Frank Kaminsky as the favorite for Big Ten Player of the Year honors. When Russell shoots 50 percent or better from the field, Ohio State is 4-0 in conference play, and they are 0-3 when he shoots below that mark. It is very much a one-man show in Columbus right now, but this is by necessity. Shannon Scott is the only other Buckeye player on the Draft Express Top-100, and he slots in as a late second round pick.

A score-first point guard prospect with prototypical size (6-foot-5, 180 pounds), Russell has the look of a guy who could be a top-10 point guard in the NBA in very short order.

Here is a look at him dismantling Minnesota on the road:

Notice that he is deadly with the three-point shot in spot-up situations and off the dribble. He has a fairly quick release and has the size and arc to get it off without much space against most opposing guards. Russell also has the makings of a very strong mid-range game, as he can use his speed to get defenders off balance, resulting in a pull-up or a blow-by depending on what the defender is guarding against. He is an excellent passer, and with fantasy anticipation and court vision. This is not a Russell Westbrook or Derrick Rose type of score-first point guard, who just compiles assists based on handling the ball so much. Russell has natural point guard instincts, he just happens to be a dominant scorer. His assist numbers may not jump off the page, but Scott, the Buckeyes' second best player, is also a point guard, so it works best for the current team if Russell focuses primarily on scoring. He shows off his vision with a couple no-look passes at the 3:12 mark and the 4:35 mark in the above video, but the pass that exploded on Twitter earlier in the week came in the Iowa game:

This is a special pass -- the kind Rajon Rondo or LeBron James would make.

Russell is currently ranked No. 4 on the Draft Express big board, and it's possible he goes as high as No. 2 or No. 3 in the draft based on which team is picking and how he measures up against Emmanuel Mudiay, who is the only other guard expected to go in the top seven or eight picks. He will be a better fantasy prospect upon entering the league than Marcus Smart (better all-around game) or Dante Exum (more NBA ready), and could take off on a similar career trajectory as Damian Lillard, assuming he is the starter from day one.

KEVON LOONEY, PF, UCLA

Looney is much more of a project than Russell, but the upside is quite similar. He's a 6-foot-9 super athletic power forward, who has a good body. He is not hulking and box-like (think Trevor Booker) but he is definitely not going to enter the league with a lot of work to do in the weight room, like Jon Henson or Ed Davis. The most apt comparison, both physically and with respect to his style of play, is Lamar Odom. Looney has a lot of work to do as a shooter (3:40 in the clip below), but he has a great motor (1:10 in the clip) and a good handle for an 18-year-old big man (2:52 in the clip).

In six PAC-12 games, Looney is averaging 13 points, 10.2 boards and 1.5 steals, but those numbers are greatly inflated by the double-overtime game against Stanford where he set career highs with 27 points and 19 rebounds. Despite his size, and the fact that most of his offense should be coming around the basket, Looney is shooting just 45.1 percent from the field and 63 percent from the line in conference play -- demonstrating just how much work his shot needs. Despite these deficiencies, Looney loves to shoot three-pointers, and he is somehow shooting 32 percent from behind the line (which isn't bad for a college big), even though he is good for an awful looking brick every couple games. That said, by the time he is seeing 30-plus minutes per game in the NBA (probably not until 2017 or 2018), he should have made enough improvements to his shot to be considered a legitimate stretch four.

As previously mentioned, there is more risk with Looney than with Russell, and there will be some lead time before he sees enough minutes to be a significant fantasy contributor. Looney will lag behind guys like Julius Randle and Aaron Gordon from this year's class in terms of dynasty rankings after getting drafted, but he should be considered on the same level as Noah Vonleh, as someone with a lot of potential, but a lot of work left to do in the developmental process. While he looks a lot like Odom on tape, that should be viewed as his absolute ceiling, although with hard work, it is attainable. Draft Express has Looney ranked as the ninth best player in the 2015 draft class, and if he can continue to develop this season, he could be talked about as a top-7 or top-8 pick in June.