This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Friday's 10-game slate consists of teams that are all coming off of rest days, so there are no concerns in that department, but the Hornets and Hawks have cross-country trips to contend with. Considering what is happening on the East Coast, a lot of teams will be facing delays, so this variable is probably a wash, but favors the home teams.
As of publication, Vegas seems to be looking at TOR/MIL (O/U: 216) and CHA/LAL (O/U: 216.5) the kindest, but I think ATL/POR is loaded with favorable matchups and two struggling defenses, and should beat its over (207).
In the 10k-plus club, Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700) and Joel Embiid ($10,300) are the sole residents. Both players are facing teams that are in the bottom-third of the league in defending their positions, but I think the ranking for the Raptors is deceiving and will put up a tougher fight against the Greek Freak. He had a 48 DKFP night against them in their last meeting so he certainly isn't a fade, but you can find close to that value further down the list. The same holds true for Embiid, who put up 40 DKFP against the Pistons. Embiid has a little more on the line as his feud with Andre Drummond is well-documented, but currently Drummond is a game-time call, so if he sits, Embiid becomes a much better play.
As usual, I'll highlight three players at each position along with some other players to consider that hold equal value in my predictions. Let's get to it!
GUARDS
DeMar DeRozan, TOR at MIL ($8,900): While it's foolish to expect a repeat of the 75.8 DKFP thrashing DeRozan gave the Bucks on New Year's Day, it certainly makes an argument for him at $8,900. Add the fact that he's on a three-game tear during which he's averaging 37.3 points and 6.3 assists per game, and you've got an easy guard player worth spending for in every format.
Kemba Walker, CHA at LAL ($8,300): The Lakers have lost seven of their last ten games and look lost in the backcourt without Lonzo Ball. While I think they have viable alternatives if he doesn't suit up, Walker has an excellent chance to exceed 40 DKFP if the game flow cooperates.
Terry Rozier, BOS vs. MIN ($4,800): I skipped a lot of players I like to give Rozier the highlight. While Kyrie Irving and Jayson Tatum are stealing the headlines, there's no denying that Rozier is a special talent and you won't find many players who are averaging 30 DKFP in their last string of games at this basement price. He's going to make spending up easy in many of my lineups.
Other guards to consider:Tyreke Evans, MEM vs, WAS ($8,000); Kris Dunn, CHI at DAL ($7,100); Tyler Johnson, MIA vs, NY ($5,200); Evan Turner, POR vs. ATL ($4,400)
FORWARDS
The more I look at the forwards, the more I feel like Giannis is a better play than first advertised. There's still a lot of value here, however.
LaMarcus Aldridge, SA vs. PHO ($8,200): The closer Kawhi Leonard gets to full strength, I become less and less enamored with almost every Spur, but Aldridge is running hot and hasn't dipped below 30 DKFP since mid-December. The Suns provide a great spot for Aldridge, and while I'm not a big fan of the price, he'll be reliable.
Derrick Favors, UTA at DEN ($6,000): Favors remains the best option with Rudy Gobert (knee) still sidelined. He had a decent game against the Nuggets last week but his shot was a little off. If he can grab a few more boards and shoot a bit more consistently, he could exceed the 30 DKFP total he recorded against them.
Trey Lyles, DEN vs. UTA ($5,400): On the other side of this matchup, Lyles is a guy I'm going to keep targeting until his price becomes prohibitive in relation to his value, and barring an early Paul Millsap return or Kenneth Faried falling back in favor, I don't see that happening anytime soon. He didn't have the best night against the Nuggets when they last played, but I think he'll rectify that on Friday.
Other forwards to consider:Josh Richardson, MIA vs. NY ($6,400); Robert Covington, PHI vs. DET ($5,600); Serge Ibaka, TOR at MIL ($5,500); Michael Beasley, NY at MIA ($5,300)
CENTERS
Dwight Howard, CHA at LAL ($8,400): Say what you will about Howard, but the older and wiser vet has made a nice home with the Hornets and has been a model of consistency for the most part. He's averaging a double-double, so he's always in the running for the DK bonus, and while the Lakers have depth at the four, they're hurting under the basket at the five. Howard's good for 40 DKFP in this one.
Jusuf Nurkic, POR vs. ATL ($7,300): I think there are a few centers (Horford, Marc Gasol) who are going to offer similar value, so I am taking the cheapest option and the home team center against a team traveling across the country. He's been averaging 40 DKFP over a four-game span as well, and nearly double-doubled against the Hawks in their last matchup.
Marcin Gortat, WAS at MEM ($4,600): I'm not doing flips over this pick, but he did have a good stat line against the Grizzlies in their last meeting. I'd do a quick scan of forwards who have dual eligibility at center before you slot him in, but at $4,600 he doesn't have to do much to match value.
Other centers to consider:Al Horford, BOS vs. MIN ($7,400); Kelly Olynyk, MIA vs. NY ($6,100); Boban Marjanovic (if Drummond sits), DET at PHI ($4,600)
Be sure to check your lineups before tip-off, it's the best advice anyone can recommend!
