Category Strategy: Week 12 Targets

Category Strategy: Week 12 Targets

This article is part of our Category Strategy series.

A lot of familiar names return to the article this week, after slumps or changes to rotations caused their fantasy stocks fall. But the NBA season is a seven-month slog, so production ebbs and flows, and these guys are back on our radars.

I didn't include Marquese Chriss in any category, because he adds value across the board and I didn't want to clutter the article by repeating his name six times. He should be added in all leagues. His upside is higher than any player mentioned below, and his recent production is as good or better than everyone listed, too. He's getting added quickly, so you should act fast if he is available.

In general, we'll focus on players available in at least 50% of leagues on ESPN, Yahoo!, and CBS. That said, since the ownership can vary significantly from one site to the next, sometimes we have to fudge those rules a bit.

Points

E'Twaun Moore, Pelicans
(Ownership: ESPN – 21%; Yahoo! – 48%; CBS – 49%)

Sometimes, the best waiver values are the players other managers are losing patience with. Moore's ownership is down slightly over the last two weeks, as his production has predictably cooled off. Importantly, however, his minutes are effectively unchanged, and his role in the Pelicans' rotation remains safe and stable. No one ever believed he would maintain the insane 63.0 percent three-point shooting clip that he managed over the three weeks following Thanksgiving, so he's not going to get punished or benched

A lot of familiar names return to the article this week, after slumps or changes to rotations caused their fantasy stocks fall. But the NBA season is a seven-month slog, so production ebbs and flows, and these guys are back on our radars.

I didn't include Marquese Chriss in any category, because he adds value across the board and I didn't want to clutter the article by repeating his name six times. He should be added in all leagues. His upside is higher than any player mentioned below, and his recent production is as good or better than everyone listed, too. He's getting added quickly, so you should act fast if he is available.

In general, we'll focus on players available in at least 50% of leagues on ESPN, Yahoo!, and CBS. That said, since the ownership can vary significantly from one site to the next, sometimes we have to fudge those rules a bit.

Points

E'Twaun Moore, Pelicans
(Ownership: ESPN – 21%; Yahoo! – 48%; CBS – 49%)

Sometimes, the best waiver values are the players other managers are losing patience with. Moore's ownership is down slightly over the last two weeks, as his production has predictably cooled off. Importantly, however, his minutes are effectively unchanged, and his role in the Pelicans' rotation remains safe and stable. No one ever believed he would maintain the insane 63.0 percent three-point shooting clip that he managed over the three weeks following Thanksgiving, so he's not going to get punished or benched after a slight cooling off period.

In the two weeks since, as Moore's three-point percentage has fallen to 38.1, his minutes remain a healthy 31.9 per game. He's still averaging 12.1 points per game, and as his three-point percentage settles into its final resting spot – which will probably be somewhere between 38.1% and 63.0% – that scoring number will likely increase.

I've been beating the Trey Lyles drum for a few weeks, so I'm forcing myself to keep him out of any of the features spots this week, but he could be featured in any of points, threes or rebounds. He should be owned in at least 75% of leagues, yet somehow he remains widely available. If he's out there, go get him.

Other suggestions:Trey Lyles, Nuggets; Michael Beasley, Knicks; Tyler Johnson, Heat; Marco Belinelli, Hawks; Kelly Olynyk, Heat

Three-Pointers

Gerald Green, Rockets
(Ownership: ESPN – 25%; Yahoo! – 38%; CBS – 24%)

The Rockets picked up Green off the real-life waiver wire barely a week ago, but he's immediately made a mark. Two unusual games – an early blowout, followed by a double-overtime game – allowed Green to see significant minutes in just his second and third games in Houston. During the double-overtime game, James Harden (hamstring) got hurt, opening up a more steady role for Green. In the first game without Harden, Green played 28 minutes, and he played 34 in the second. In those two games, he is averaging 28.0 points and 7.0 made threes – of course, those will both regress, but he should stay valuable at least as long as Harden is sidelined.

Harden will sit for least another week-and-a-half, at which point he will be reevaluated. Injury experts typically say that a Grade 2 hamstring strain is likely to keep him sidelined for at least another three weeks, if not longer.

Other suggestions:Trey Lyles, Nuggets; Rodney Hood, Jazz; Wayne Ellington, Heat; Marco Belinelli, Hawks; Kelly Olynyk, Heat

Rebounds

Michael Beasley, Knicks
(Ownership: ESPN – 28%; Yahoo! – 40%; CBS – 57%)

I can't believe I'm seriously writing about Michael Beasley as a waiver wire addition in 2018. The guy picked between Derek Rose, Russell Westbrook, and Kevin Love had basically washed out of the league by 2014. Somehow, like a phoenix, he has been reborn as a Knick. At first, his fantasy outbreaks only came when Kristaps Porzingis was out, but in the eight games with Porzingis in the lineup, Beasley has forgotten to fade into the background. He has at least nine rebounds in four of those games, while scoring at least 20 points three times. Over his last four, Beasley is averaging 19.0 points, 8.8 rebounds and 2.5 assists in 26.0 minutes per game. It's shocking, but Beasley can be added in all leagues.

Other suggestions:Trey Lyles, Nuggets; Bismack Biyombo, Magic; Kelly Olynyk, Heat; John Henson, Bucks; Terry Rozier, Celtics

Assists

Ish Smith, Pistons
(Ownership: ESPN – 30%; Yahoo! – 42%; CBS – 79%)

Reggie Jackson (ankle) is likely out until at least the end of the month, which makes Smith the starting point guard in Detroit. There aren't a lot of true "handcuff" situations in Fantasy basketball, but Smith for Jackson is one of them. While Smith is usually best left on waiver wires, he was worth owning in all leagues during the 30 games Jackson missed last season, averaging 12.7 points and 6.4 assists per game in that span. Smith's scoring average rose to 17.1 per game in the contests Jackson missed in March and April. In his first two games without Jackson, Smith picked up right where he left off, averaging 18.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in 31.0 minutes.

Other suggestions:Tyus Jones, Timberwolves; Caris LeVert, Nets; Lance Stephenson, Pacers; Jarrett Jack, Knicks

Steals

Tyus Jones, Timberwolves
(Ownership: ESPN – 9%; Yahoo! – 21%; CBS – 45%)

Jones is a thief. It's his greatest skill. He's a pretty good passer, and not a bad rebounder or perimeter shooter, but his greatest skill is his knack for the ball. And for the next week and a half, and possibly the next three-and-a-half weeks, Jones is the Timberwolves' primary point guard. Thus far, he's averaging 31.5 minutes per game in that role. Jeff Teague (knee) is out, and in his first four games on the sideline, Jones has racked up 12 steals. By comparison, Teague averages 2.5 steals per-36 minutes this year, and has averaged at least 1.9 per-36 in each of his two previous seasons.

Other suggestions: Delon Wright, Raptors; Caris LeVert, Nets; Courtney Lee, Knicks

Blocks

Kyle O'Quinn, Knicks
(Ownership: ESPN – 5%; Yahoo! – 12%; CBS – 9%)

Realistically, outside of very deep leagues, adding O'Quinn right now is probably a little premature. But the market for blocks doesn't see a ton of turnover – the best options, listed below, are names that have been included in at least half of these columns – so this seems like a good time to get ahead of the O'Quinn situation.

As Andy Bailey of Bleacher Report pointed out, Kristaps Porzingis and the Knicks are both better when he is playing center. That makes four of the Knicks' (arguably) six best players centers, and that's not including their second-highest-paid player, Joakim Noah, who is also a center.

While it's not usually safe to assume that the Knicks will act rationally, they are very much in the playoff race, and a well-managed team in their situation would trade at least one of its centers to balance the roster. If the Knicks make a change and O'Quinn ends up in a situation where he can play 20 minutes per game, he would become a solid contributor in blocks and rebounds.

Last season O'Quinn averaged 3.0 blocks per-36 minutes, and he's blocked at least 2.3 shots per-36 in each of the last three seasons. The trade deadline is still a month and a half away, but last season the trades started picking up a full month ahead of the deadline. Most trades the Knicks could make where they shed either O'Quinn or Enes Kanter would result in an increase in value for O'Quinn.

Other suggestions:Bismack Biyombo, Magic; John Henson, Bucks; Jordan Bell, Warriors; Delon Wright, Raptors

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Rikleen
Rikleen writes the NBA column "Numbers Game," which decodes the math that underpins fantasy basketball and was a nominee for the 2016 FSWA Newcomer of the Year Award. A certified math teacher, Rikleen decided the field of education pays too well, so he left it for writing. He is a Boston College graduate living outside Boston.
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