RotoWire Bracketology: Version 2.0

RotoWire Bracketology: Version 2.0

This article is part of our RotoWire Bracketology series.

After four days of basketball, the bubble remains intact sans Tennessee and Indiana, but that leaves room for a couple more to creep into the picture. As for seeding, the question is becoming how far Wisconsin will fall with the Badgers possibly fitting in the 8- or 9-seed range if the losing continues.

Here's the latest, complete bracket, followed by a full bubble breakdown:

FIRST FOUR BYES

VCU
(KenPom 47, BPI 38, RPI 23): As expected, the Rams fell at Dayton on Wednesday. With continued road struggles this season in a mediocre conference, VCU needs to beat George Mason, but then also two games in the A10 tournament. As of now, the Rams could end up drawing Richmond in the semifinals instead of Rhode Island and a loss to the Spiders could be a dagger.

Syracuse
(KenPom 51, BPI 33, RPI 78): They didn't play during the week, so here's what I said on Monday: "I've had the Orange in my bracket since their five-game win streak, but the only chance they have to make the tournament is by beating Georgia Tech and then at least one in the ACC tournament." Without two more wins, they drop all the way to First Four Out for me.

Seton Hall
(KenPom 57, BPI 59, RPI 50): Everything remains the same for the Pirates after beating Georgetown on Tuesday. Non-conference success is keeping them alive, but a win at Butler this weekend would do wonders. If not, they'll probably need at least one in the Big East tournament to calm nerves come Selection Sunday.

Marquette
(KenPom 30, BPI 29, RPI 59): Unlike some of its Big East competitors (Providence below), Marquette has no terrible losses. The Golden Eagles would be in a great position with a win vs. Creighton on Saturday and might not even need a conference tourney win to make the field.

LAST FOUR IN

Providence
(KenPom 55, BPI 55, RPI 54): While the Friars didn't do anything wrong, I still moved them down a slot as a home win over DePaul does nothing. They have three losses that stand out: at Boston College, at DePaul, vs. St. John's. Providence can't lose at St. John's on Saturday and if it does, may need two wins in the Big East tourney.

Kansas State
(KenPom 35, BPI 42, RPI 58): Congrats, you won at TCU, but there's still a long way to go for the Wildcats. They can't lose in Manhattan to Texas Tech and then probably need one Big 12 tournament win to quell any doubts. Road wins at Baylor and Oklahoma State can't be matched by most on the bubble.

Wake Forest
(KenPom 31, BPI 30, RPI 38): A win over Louisville puts the Demon Deacons into my bracket, but their job isn't done. If they lose at Virginia Tech on Saturday, they'll likely need at least one win in the ACC tournament to feel better. And the stat still stands that Wake Forest's only losses have come to teams inside KenPom's top 51.

Rhode Island
(KenPom 48, BPI 37, RPI 42): The problem for the Rhodies is that possibilities of big-time wins aren't prevalent every night in the Atlantic 10. They'll probably need two wins in the conference tournament to deserve more consideration. Most of the other bubble teams don't have home losses to teams like La Salle and Fordham. However, I think those two tournament wins are coming so I have them in for now.

FIRST FOUR OUT

Georgia
(KenPom 52, BPI 66, RPI 49): The Bulldogs were almost kicked out of this spot after falling behind early against Auburn, but managed a one-point win on Wednesday. A win at Arkansas will make things interesting and a win in the SEC tourney will have fans clamoring for a spot in the Big Dance.

Vanderbilt
(KenPom 40, BPI 49, RPI 47): The Commodores had a great opportunity to win at Kentucky, but that disappeared. With a loss to Florida on Saturday, they'll likely be looking at 16 losses and that means trouble. In the end, the committee could point to home losses to Bucknell and Ole Miss as well as at Missouri as the biggest faults.
Illinois
(KenPom 66, BPI 62, RPI 55): A lot of bracketologists have Illinois in, but I'll sum that up as recency bias. The Illini obviously have to win at Rutgers on Saturday, but also at least one game in the Big Ten Tournament to have a good shot. Otherwise, getting swept by Penn State may be the reason they don't go dancing.

California
(KenPom 54, BPI 51, RPI 53): You can't lose by 30 points to a non-tournament team and live to tell about it. The Golden Bears need to win at Colorado and then win another relevant game in the Pac-12 tourney. If not, they're headed for the NIT.

NEXT FOUR OUT

TCU
(KenPom 43, BPI 52, RPI 66): All hope is not lost, but it's getting there. The Horned Frogs continue losing close games which helps their rankings like KenPom, but home losses to Kansas State and Auburn will likely cost them in the end.

Texas Tech
(KenPom 34, BPI 34, RPI 100): The win over Texas helped, but not by much. The Red Raiders still need to win at least two more games to have a better chance and first up is a road game at Kansas State, which is also in need of a win.

Clemson
(KenPom 37, BPI 35, RPI 61): Nothing has changed for the Tigers. Inexplicably their KenPom ranking went up three points after beating NC State at home, but we'll leave that for another day. They'll need at least two wins in the ACC tournament to be in a deserving position.

Illinois State
(KenPom 45, BPI 58, RPI 33): I'm finally giving the Redbirds some recognition, but mainly because I don't want to write about an Indiana team that is surviving on early-season success. My thoughts remain the same: Illinois State has to win the MVC tournament to make the field. .

*Rankings pulled from KenPom, BPI and RPI before games on 3/3.

To view a compilation of all of the bracket predictions in the world, check out the Bracket Matrix. As of note, this bracket was in the top 10 percent of brackets in 2016 and top 20 percent in 2015.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adam Zdroik
Adam, a 2019, 2018 and 2017 Finalist for FSWA's Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's soccer editor. He also runs RotoWire's Bracketology, as well as writes on other various college basketball content. He has previously worked at ESPN and Sporting Kansas City, and he is a former Streak for the Cash winner and Michigan State graduate.
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