DraftKings CFL: Week 16 Value Plays
DraftKings CFL: Week 16 Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings CFL series.

The CFL goes deeper into its regular-season stretch run with another exciting four-game slate in Week 16. As the postseason increasingly comes into focus, the Roughriders are in position to clinch a playoff berth with a win against the Argonauts, while the Alouettes can do the same with a win and losses by both Toronto and Ottawa. However, they may have to try and accomplish the feat without star quarterback Vernon Adams, who was handed a one-game suspension by the league earlier in the week. With no shortage of intriguing sub-plots and matchups, let's dive right into some appealing plays at each position: 

DraftKings CFL Plays- Week 16

Quarterback

Cody Fajardo, SSK at TOR ($9,800): Fajardo should be rested after a bye week and ready to try and secure a playoff berth for the Roughriders. The emerging quarterback is averaging an impressive 21.26 fantasy points per contest this season and is coming off a tally of 25.06 fantasy points versus the Alouettes back in Week 14. He now draws the winning lottery ticket for CFL quarterbacks, namely, the Argonauts' generous secondary. Toronto comes in allowing the most passing yards per game (329.8), highest average yards per attempt (9.2), second-highest completion percentage (73.0), most passing touchdowns (22) and highest passer efficiency rating (107.7). Fajardo also brings plenty of upside on the ground, while Toronto is surrendering the highest average yards per rush (5.6) and a CFL-high 48 rushes of 10 or more yards, cementing Fajardo's case further.

Mike Reilly, BC vs. MTL ($9,400): It took almost three-quarters of the season, but Reilly finally is starting to look comfortable on a consistent basis in BC. The prolific gunslinger put together another impressive performance in Week 15, posting 24.12 fantasy points on the strength of a 353-yard effort against the Redblacks that included a pair of touchdown passes. Reilly turned in a respectable 15.4 fantasy points versus the Alouettes in Week 13 while completing 69.0 percent of his throws in that contest and Montreal is allowing a hefty 308.8 passing yards per game (third most in the CFL) along with the third-highest completion percentage (72.2). It's also worth noting the Als have been especially susceptible to the big play, yielding a CFL-high 49.0 completion percentage on targets of 20 yards or further downfield. That dovetails nicely with Reilly's passer profile, considering he's second only to Trevor Harris in completions of 30 yards or greater this season (19).

Dane Evans, HAM at WPG ($9,200): Evans continues to outpace his reasonable salaries with some stellar showings, the most recent example a 336-yard, three-touchdown effort against an Eskimos defense that had been ranked at the top of multiple categories versus the pass heading into the Week 15 matchup. The yardage tally versus Edmonton was actually Evans' lowest over the last three games, as he'd racked up 442 and 360 against the Argonauts and Stampeders, respectively, in the prior pair of contests. The Blue Bombers have seen their pass defense falter more often as the season has unfolded, as they're now allowing 296.2 passing yards per game, fourth most in the league. They've also yielded 19 completions of 30 yards or more, which will presumably give Evans a higher chance of connecting on some downfield shots with prolific speedster Brandon Banks and Bralon Addison.

Running Back

Andrew Harris, WPG vs. HAM ($10,100): As expected, Harris came off a two-game suspension in Week 15 raring to go, compiling 188 total yards, including a 112-yard day through the air, against the Alouettes. He now draws a matchup versus a Tiger-Cats defense that's been vulnerable to the running game all season and against which he posted 19.7 fantasy points (117 total yards) back in Week 7.  Hamilton is allowing 98.2 rush yards per contest, 5.3 yards per carry and is tied with the Lions for third-most rushing touchdowns allowed (14). Moreover, they've yielded the second-most rushes of 20 or more yards, which could set up some big plays for Harris considering he's rattled off five such runs this season and a CFL-high 27 scampers of 10 or more yards overall. 

William Powell, SSK at TOR ($9,200): Powell doesn't come cheap, but with a matchup versus the Argonauts on tap, he's worth the investment if you can swing it. Toronto continues to be one of the most welcoming teams in the CFL for opposing rushing attacks, allowing 119.6 yards per game on the ground, along with the highest average yards per rush (5.6) and 16 rushing touchdowns. Toronto is also tied with the Eskimos for third-most runs of 20 or more yards allowed (10), and their vulnerabilities to the pass described in Fajardo's entry could also benefit Powell. The veteran has three- and four-catch tallies in two of the last three games; meanwhile, the Argos surrender the second-highest completion percentage (84.0) and most touchdowns (13) on targets of up to nine yards in depth, the distance where most, if not all, of Powell's looks would likely come.

C.J. Gable, EDM at OTT ($8,500): There's no running back cheaper than Gable that I like this week, with the veteran in almost as good a spot as Powell and yet $700 cheaper. Gable's production does tend to fluctuate some, but he's certainly capable of some "spiked weeks" and will be facing a Redblacks team that he already lit up for a season-high 34.0 fantasy points back in Week 9. Ottawa has taken the mantle of worst run defense from the Argonauts for the time being, as the Redblacks are now allowing the most rushing yards per game (121.4) and are also yielding the most rushing touchdowns (22) and most runs of 20 or more yards (12). Gable's significant passing game role (12 catches last two weeks and 48 receptions overall this season) could also come into play here, as the Redblacks also allow the second-most passing yards per game (315.4), including the most yards (2,067) on targets of up to nine yards in depth. 

Wide Receiver/Slotback

Bralon Addison, HAM at WPG ($9,400):  Addison's teammate Brandon Banks ($10,200) and the Lions' Bryan Burnham ($9,600) are both appealing as well, but Addison's price continues to hold steady and he could well end up with more total touches than either of them. In fact, the second-year receiver's salary actually came down $100 from Week 15 despite the fact he tallied 28.5 fantasy points versus the Eskimos on the strength of a four-catch, 126-yard, one-touchdown performance. Addison has scored no fewer than 22.6 fantasy points in four of his last five games overall, an incredible floor that's been aided by his part-time running back role and complemented by a ceiling that's seen him exceed 40 fantasy points on two occasions. The Blue Bombers' vulnerabilities to the pass were already detailed in Evans' entry and Addison's typically robust target volume should once again manifest in this matchup, giving him another very strong chance of justifying his salary.

Shaq Evans, SSK at TOR ($8,900): Evans is the most expensive piece of the Roughriders' air attack this week in terms of pass catchers, but given the matchup, he's worth it. The Argonauts' secondary has repeatedly been exposed this season as was already detailed in Fajardo's entry and Evans generated a 5-112-1 versus Toronto back in Week 3 that led to 19.2 fantasy points. In addition to the numbers previously cited that encapsulate the Argos' weaknesses against the pass, it's also worth noting they've yielded the most completions of 30 yards or more (22), while Evans has nine such grabs this season and a very impressive 52.6 percent catch rate on targets of 20 yards or greater in depth.

Quan Bray, MTL at BC ($7,300): There's reportedly a slim chance Adams successfully appeals his one-game suspension, but absent a victory there, it will likely be Matt Shiltz under center for Montreal. Shiltz is a serviceable third-year quarterback with some experience, but he tends to keep his attempts in the short-to-intermediate passing window for the most part. That would suit the versatile Bray just fine, as the first-year CFL wideout has shown an ability to thrive in all the passing windows at different points this season. Bray could particularly offer value from a PPR standpoint in this contest, considering BC has allowed the highest completion percentage (67.5) in the intermediate passing window (10-19 yards in depth) while Bray's 14.2 YPC sits right in the middle of that range. Bray has also provided a solid floor in recent games, going for between 11.4 and 20.1 fantasy points across his last four contests.   

Emmanuel Arceneaux, SSK at TOR ($3,800): We'll go from the most expensive part of the Roughriders' receiving corps (Evans) to the cheapest in Arcenaux. Finding the veteran at a sub-$4K price is surprising, but his very modest production throughout the season warrants the discount to an extent.  Arceneaux hasn't been needed in anywhere near the same capacity in Saskatchewan as he has in other stops, but he scored 10.6 fantasy points just two games ago versus the Blue Bombers and has three or more grabs in three of his last four games. Naturally, he's simply a cost-savings punt play for tournaments given his fairly limited role, but if there's ever a week to roll the dice on him, it would be this one against an Argonauts team that's laid out the welcome mat for pass catchers all season.

Team Defense

Edmonton Eskimos at Ottawa Redblacks ($4,400):

 The Lions defense is also interesting at just $4,000 facing Shiltz and the Alouettes, but I like the Eskimos' outlook even more. The Redblacks literally can't decide on a starting quarterback at the moment, as it's been announced they'll alternate Jonathan Jennings and Dominique Davis under center in Week 16. The old saying of "if you've got two starting quarterbacks, you have none" certainly applies here, especially considering how mistake-prone both of these signal-callers have been. Ottawa leads the league with 43 turnovers overall and most points allowed off turnovers (124). Part of their problem has definitely been poor pass protection, with the 29 sacks they've surrendered ranking as third most in the CFL. Some of the Redblacks' other metrics that speak to their offensive inefficiency include most two-and-outs (88) and the correlated CFL-low 5.7 yards gained per first down. All of these figures make Ottawa a proverbial sitting duck for an aggressive Edmonton defense that has piled up the second-most sacks (37) and forced the most two-and-outs (76) in the CFL, while also tying with the Stampeders for most turnovers forced (37). Edmonton is also allowing the lowest net offensive yardage per game (286.5) in the league and already generated a solid 8.0 fantasy points versus the Redblacks in a Week 9 matchup. 

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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