NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 9

Cleveland (+11) at Cincinnati - Thursday, 8:25 pm EST

Comments: The Browns' switch from Josh McCown to Johnny Manziel is going to have a lot of ripples, but the biggest will be how it affects Gary Barnidge. Big Game Barnidge was just Journeyman Gary before McCown took over under center in Week 3, catching four passes on six targets for all of 55 yards in the first two games of the season. Cleveland's gameplan has evolved since then to make Barnidge a much bigger part of the picture, but even in the last two games when Manziel was used in relief of the battered McCown, he didn't look the tight end's way. Of the 13 passes he threw in those games, only one went to Barnidge, a completion of one whole yard. If you've been riding Barnidge, you may want to roster a replacement until McCown heals up. ... On the other hand, if you're hurting at WR (for instance, to pick a totally random example, if you traded some RB depth for Keenan Allen a week ago in a deep league where your two most expensive players at the auction were Dez Bryant and Jordy Nelson, not that I'm bitter or anything) you might want to toss a dart at Dwayne Bowe. Manziel likes throwing to his wideouts, and aside from Travis Benjamin the Browns don't have many healthy ones with Andrew Hawkins and Brian Hartline both out with concussions. Taylor Gabriel could also get some targets, but in a game where the Browns could fall into a deep hole pretty quickly, Johnny Football probably will be slinging enough footballs around for all three. ... How deep a hole? Cleveland has a flat out terrible run defense (147.0 rushing yards allowed per game, most in the league by more than 13 yards; 4.8 YPC allowed, fourth worst; and eight rushing TDs allowed, tied for fifth most) and their secondary is a casualty ward, with Joe Haden and Donte Whitner also out with concussions (what the heck did the Cardinals do to the poor Brownies last week, anyway?) and Tashaun Gipson still limping with an ankle injury. Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and the Bengals backfield duo could have their way with whoever's left in uniform.

Predictions:Duke Johnson leads the Browns backfield with 80 combined yards and a TD. Manziel throws for 270 yards and a touchdown to Bowe, but also gets picked off twice. Jeremy Hill runs for 100 yards and Gio Bernard picks up 70 combined yards, and both score. Dalton throws for 240 yards and three TDs, one each to Green, Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones. Bengals, 38-14

Green Bay at Carolina (+2.5) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: In your deepest, darkest fantasy nightmares you couldn't possibly have anticipated the kind of performance Aaron Rodgers gave you against the Broncos, especially coming out of his bye. Things might not be any better this week either, as Carolina has a legitimate claim to having a better pass defense than Denver (the Panthers' 57.3 percent completion percentage allowed and 5.6 yards per pass attempt are both better than the Broncos) thanks in large part to Josh Norman's emergence. It's kind of unthinkable to consider benching Rodgers, but the unthinkable has already happened, so all bets are off at this point. ... Jonathan Stewart is on a roll, averaging 95 rushing yards and a touchdown over his last three games. The Packers defense just handed C.J. Anderson his first 100-yard game of the season and allowed three rushing TDs between Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. Expect said roll to continue. ... Narratives are a funny thing, which this week's internet brouhaha over whether it's fair to compare Cam Newton to Colin Kaepernick demonstrated. If the Panthers were 3-4, people would be looking at Newton's 54.2 percent completion rate, 7.1 YPA and 11:8 TD:INT and wondering if the team would be better off with backup Derek Anderson under center. Instead the Panthers are 7-0, Newton is a potential MVP candidate and his weak receiving corps gets the blame for his poor numbers, as though Greg Olsen didn't exist and his passing numbers weren't just as bad when Kelvin Benjamin was healthy last year. Carolina's had no trouble scoring points (27.3 PPG, fourth in the league), so obviously having Newton as a mobile QB in a ground-and-pound offense is working. Can't he just be a good but flawed quarterback in a system that takes advantage of his strengths, guys? Why you gotta be all Skip Bayless about it?

Predictions:Eddie Lacy rushes for 70 yards. Rodgers bounces back a little, throwing for 240 yards and touchdowns to James Jones and John Kuhn. Stewart bangs out 110 yards and a TD, while Newton throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Ted Ginn. Panthers, 20-17

Washington (+14) at New England - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: After turning the Dolphins into canned tuna last week, the Patriots seem pretty well set to annihilate a Washington team that can't stop the run (4.9 YPC allowed, 30th in the league) or the pass (97.9 QB rating against, 24th in the league) and still has Kirk Cousins at quarterback. To their credit, the Washington offensive line has done a good job protecting Cousins this year (he's been sacked just eight times) and is probably feeling pretty cocky after torching the Bucs prior to last week's bye, but that just seems like a recipe for a bigger fall. If you're looking for a good politically incorrect reference to use to describe this game, I'd suggest the Trail of Tears. ... One thing Washington's defense hasn't been terrible at is containing pass-catching backs, coming in a respectable 10th in passing DVOA vs. RBs according to Football Outsiders, so this seems more like a LeGarrette Blount game than a Dion Lewis game, if you're trying to time the market on the Pats backfield. ... If there's a ray of hope here for Washington, it's that DeSean Jackson might actually get back onto the field from his hamstring injury, as he's been practicing since Monday. The Patriots defense has been middle-of-the-pack against the pass this year, and if their pass rush can't get to Cousins, he could have the time to take some shots downfield. Whether Jackson is recovered enough to get under them remains to be seen, though.

Predictions:Matt Jones leads the Washington backfield with 80 combined yards, but Chris Thompson catches a TD pass. Cousins throws for 220 yards and a second score to Jackson. Blount rumbles for 80 yards and two touchdowns, while Tom Brady throws for 320 yards and three TDs, two to Rob Gronkowski (who tops 100 receiving yards) and one to Brandon LaFell. Patriots, 41-20

Tennessee (+8) at New Orleans - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: The axe finally fell on Ken Whisenhunt, but it doesn't seem like the Titans are really any better off, as the last time Mike Mularkey was allowed to be a head coach he led the 2012 Jaguars to a 2-14 record. The offense won't change, though, which is at least good news for Marcus Mariota's development if not his immediate future. Mariota's back at practice this week, but the team hasn't confirmed yet that he'll start Sunday as he recovers from his knee injury. With top target Kendall Wright also likely missing the game with his own knee injury and nothing to play for but draft position even in the feeble AFC South, there's really no reason to rush Mariota back into action. ... Drew Brees' explosion against the Giants after weeks of mediocrity was more than just a good advertisement for turning to a best-ball format in your fantasy leagues. He's actually been doing well since sitting out Week 3 with his shoulder injury, but hadn't been getting the touchdowns to fuel his fantasy output. This is one of those situations where buying "high" in a trade makes a lot of sense, as Brees' owner might want to capitalize on his record-setting day to get rid of a QB who hadn't done much leading up to that game, while you'll be looking for a QB who can provide a happy medium between last week's seven TDs and the single scores he managed each of the two weeks prior. The Titans' defense has been pretty good against the pass this year, ranking third with 198 pass yards allowed per game, and they did shut down Matt Ryan a couple weeks ago, but now that he's snapped out of his funk Brees is the kind of guy who could easily go on a tear. ... Khiry Robinson's season-ending leg injury means more goal-line looks for Mark Ingram, but it probably also means a bigger workload for C.J. Spiller. The Saints have been trying to limit Ingram's snaps to keep him healthy, so if he needs to take on Robinson's short-yardage duties, he'll have to give back snaps somewhere else. That either means more early down carries or more passing-down work for Spiller, unless New Orleans tries to work someone like Tim Hightower into the mix. Spiller's already seen at least four targets each of the last five games, but Ingram's also seen 20 targets to Spiller's 24 over that stretch. Give the former Bill a bigger share of those passes, and suddenly he becomes a very intriguing pickup.

Predictions:Antonio Andrews has his best day yet, rushing for 80 yards and a score. Mariota starts and throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Delanie Walker. Ingram grinds out 70 yards and a TD, while Brees throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Brandin Cooks and Marques Colston. Saints, 27-20

Miami (+3) at Buffalo - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments:Tyrod Taylor is expected back for the Bills, and not a moment too soon. EJ Manuel went 0-2 in his place, somehow losing a game to Jacksonville, and if Taylor can get the club turned back around there's still plenty of time for Buffalo to re-establish itself in a muddled AFC wild-card chase. Last time he faced Miami, he racked up 277 passing yards and three TDs, but those were the Joe Philbin Dolphins and not the Dan Campbell Dolphins, so he may not be quite as successful this time around. ... Taylor may not have his best receiving options available, either. Sammy Watkins is practicing but still listed as questionable with an ankle injury, while Percy Harvin's still sidelined with hip and knee issues. The Dolphins weren't doing too badly against tight ends until they got Gronked last week, but given the injuries to the Bills' receiving corps, this could be a good spot for another Charles Clay revenge game, as he went 5-82-1 on seven targets back in Week 3. ... The big matchup in this game might come at running back. Lamar Miller has scored in all three games under coach Campbell, while LeSean McCoy got the bye week to heal further after racking up 198 combined yards over the previous two games. Both defenses have struggled to keep tabs on pass-catching backs this season, so whichever one does the most damage in the air could swing the game in his team's favor.

Predictions: Miller picks up 120 combined yards and scores one rushing TD and one receiving TD. Ryan Tannehill throws for 250 yards and a second touchdown to Rishard Matthews. McCoy tops Miller's yardage, going off for 150 combined yards and one score, while Taylor throws TDs to Clay and Robert Woods but also loses a key fumble. Dolphins, 24-21

St. Louis (+2.5) at Minnesota - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments:Todd Gurley remained ridiculous last week, rushing for another 133 yards in essentially three quarters as the Rams gave him the last 12 minutes of the game off while protecting a big lead. Since becoming the full-time starter in Week 4, he's averaging 141.5 rushing yards a game (!) and, oh yeah, he's had eight targets the last two weeks too, so he's getting more involved in the passing game. The Vikings' defense hasn't been great against the run, allowing 4.4 yards per carry (25th in the league), so its chances of slowing the rookie seem slim. The Vikes have only given up four rushing TDs this season, though, so maybe they can at least keep him out of the end zone. ... Of course, it's not like Minnesota has some shlub in its own backfield. Adrian Peterson has three 100-yard games of his own this year and is on pace for 1,447 yards, which would be his best performance since he topped 2,000 yards in 2012. The Rams front seven is sixth in the league in YPC against at 3.7, though, so the old dog will find it tougher sledding than the young upstart on the other sideline. ... It's a good thing the two teams have stud RBs, because neither seems to like throwing the ball. Teddy Bridgewater has an 85.5 QB rating, 22nd in the league, and is on pace for just 3,488 passing yards, but that's still better than Nick Foles, who has an 81.6 QBR (27th in the league) and is somehow on pace for just 2,994 passing yards, an impossibly low number in the modern NFL for a 16-game starter. Remember when having a domed home stadium meant a team's offense would be a dazzling aerial show? Good times. To make matters worse for the Vikings, emerging star wide receiver Stefon Diggs is gimpy with a hamstring injury and might not play.

Predictions: Gurley romps for another 110 rushing yards and a TD. Foles throws for his usual sub-200 yards and hits Jared Cook for a touchdown. Peterson rushes for 90 yards and scores twice, while Bridgewater throws for 220 yards but can't find the end zone. Rams, 20-17

Jacksonville (+2.5) at N.Y. Jets - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: If that spread seems small, it's because seemingly every player on the Jets' offense is hurt. Starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has torn ligaments in his non-throwing thumb, while backup Geno Smith has a banged-up shoulder. Chris Ivory is playing through hamstring issues, Brandon Marshall has toe and ankle injuries on both feet and Eric Decker hasn't practiced this week due to a knee injury. Of that bunch, only Decker seems truly iffy for Sunday (well, ideally for the Jets, Geno won't play either), but how effective any of them will be remains to be seen. ... Blake Bortles continues to experience growing pains. The second-year quarterback is on pace for a 4,100-yard season with 34 TDs, which isn't bad at all, but his 6.7 YPA is just plain bad (the next two names below him on the list are Colin Kaepernick and Kirk Cousins), and his 55.7 completion percentage is third lowest among starting QBs (the two guys below him are, uhh, Andrew Luck and Cam Newton. OK, bad example). The Jaguars as a whole aren't a good team, but the offensive line has worked its way up to semi-adequate in pass protection and between Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas, the front office has given Bortles a solid array of weapons. It's now on him to start using them more effectively, but even coming out of the Jags' bye, a road game against a Jets defense that ranks third in YPA allowed (6.1) and fifth in QB rating against (76.6) doesn't seem like a good venue for the next stage in his development. ... Somehow, Jacksonville's defense ranks first in the league in yards per carry against at 3.5, but they've still allowed an average of 103.6 rushing yards a game. That low YPC is largely a product of other teams trying to kill the clock in the second half rather than gain real estate, so if Ivory is healthy enough to get a full workload, he could produce solid volume numbers despite the seemingly tough matchup.

Predictions:T.J. Yeldon manages 60 rushing yards. Bortles throws for 240 yards and TDs to Thomas and Hurns but gets picked off twice. Ivory bangs out 80 yards and two scores, one on the ground and one through the air, while Fitzpatrick throws for 270 yards and a second touchdown to Marshall. Jets, 24-14

Oakland (+4.5) at Pittsburgh - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: "Next man up" philosophy is a lot easier to take when you've seen that next man already perform well in the starter's place. Le'Veon Bell's knee injury was gruesome, but given DeAngelo Williams' performance while Bell was suspended at the beginning of the season, the Steelers should be able to manage better than many other teams would after losing an elite skill player. The Raiders have been tough against the run this season, though, carrying the longest active streak in the league of not allowing a 100-yard rusher (five games) and ranking third in YPC against (3.6), so don't expect immediate dividends if you blew your FAAB budget on Williams. ... Of all the improbable records to this point in the season, the Raiders' 4-3 mark might be the weirdest, just because it's been so long since they were dangerous. When you consider that two of their losses came against teams that remain undefeated (the Bengals and Broncos), it's clear that being above .500 this late in the year is no fluke. Their second-half schedule isn't too bad either (the Vikings, Packers and the repeat game against the Broncos are the only teams with winning records they'll face), so a wild card in the wacky AFC is easily within their grasp. If they're going to steal a win in Pittsburgh, though, it'll likely come through Derek Carr's arm rather than Latavius Murray's legs, as the Steelers' run defense has been nearly as tough as the Raiders' unit (3.8 YPC against, 11th in the league, and a league-low two rushing TDs allowed). ... Keep an eye on rookie tight end Clive Walford. He's still getting fairly limited snaps and looks, but Pittsburgh's been just as bad at containing tight ends this year as Oakland, so if Walford has any upside to flash, he'll probably flash it here.

Predictions: Murray manages just 50 combined yards. Carr throws for 290 yards and two TDs to Amari Cooper, who tops 100 yards. Williams rushes for 70 yards, while Ben Roethlisberger throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, two to Heath Miller and one to Martavis Bryant. Antonio Brown also pulls down 130 yards. Steelers, 27-20

N.Y. Giants at Tampa Bay (+2.5) - Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Comments: Remember all that preseason discussion of whether Odell Beckham should be in the conversation as the top wideout off the board purely on the basis of his 2014 second half? Well, it might be time to re-kindle those talks after his eruption against the Saints. Despite the hamstring injuries that slowed him in the first half, Beckham's still played in every game, found the end zone in five of eight starts and managed three 100-yard performances as well. His 1,300-yard, 14-TD pace is good, but we all know he's capable of better, and if his targets creep back into double-digits once he's fully healthy another big kick to the finish should be in the cards. A game against a Bucs defense among the worst in YPT allowed (7.9, 27th in the league) and passing TDs surrendered (17, tied for 29th with, you guessed it, the Giants) is a great place to start. ... In fact, the teams have remarkably similar records of futility against the pass this year. The Giants are also 25th in YPT against a 7.8, neither team gets many sacks (the Giants are actually last with just nine, while the Bucs have a middle-of-the-pack 17 sacks), and they also allow similar completion percentages (the Giants are 28th at 68.4, while the Bucs are a woeful 31st at 71.1). Two things tip the scales in favor of the boys in blue, though, as opposed to the posse in pewter. Jason Pierre-Paul is about to rejoin the lineup, which would breathe some life into the Giants' pass rush even if his snaps are limited. Also, the Giants secondary has 13 INTs, with two pick-sixes, while the Bucs have just four interceptions without returning any to the house. ... Remember all that talk about Mike Evans being the next elite wideout? Well, it ain't happening yet. Injuries haven't helped, but after managing just three catches and 48 yards last week despite nine targets, it might be worth asking whether he's on the same page yet as rookie QB Jameis Winston. To be fair to him, the Falcons' secondary has been pretty good this season, and he was pretty much Winston's only real receiving option, but his numbers are still very disconcerting. That torchable Giants defense could be just what he needs to get going, though, especially if Austin Seferian-Jenkins returns from his shoulder injury to draw away a bit of attention from Evans.

Predictions:Rashad Jennings racks up 90 combined yards. Eli Manning throws for 230 yards and touchdowns to Beckham and Rueben Randle. Doug Martin picks up 80 combined yards and a score, while Winston throws for 250 yards and TDs to Evans and Seferian-Jenkins. Buccaneers, 24-20

Atlanta at San Francisco (+7) - Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Comments: Nothing says desperation like handing your starting QB job over to a guy with a career 5-22 record, but that's where the 49ers find themselves this week as they begin the Blaine Gabbert Era. Gabbert still looks just as much like a prototypical modern quarterback as he did the day he was drafted, but after the abuse he suffered in Jacksonville he may be too shell shocked to ever capitalize on his physical tools. With Vernon Davis now in Denver, Carlos Hyde possibly done for the season and Anquan Boldin still dealing with a hamstring injury though, even if Gabbert does have some kind of remarkable renaissance under center for San Francisco, he doesn't exactly have the weapons to completely turn the offense around. ... The Niners may be desperate when it comes to their quarterbacks, but the Falcons are just confused. After averaging 34.3 points a game through the first four games, Matt Ryan's offense has produced just 19.0 points a game since, and against weaker competition. A healthy Julio Jones is back to pulling down his usual awesome numbers, but Devonta Freeman hasn't scored in a couple games and no one else has stepped up in his absence, especially Ryan, who has a 5:5 TD:INT ratio over that four-game stretch of mediocrity. The 49ers' pass defense is basically terrible (8.5 YPT allowed, second most in the league), but Ryan hasn't faced a defense ranked higher than Tennessee's 23rd in that category over his month-long swoon, so the favorable matchup is no guarantee he'll turn things around. ... The Falcons' defense has struggled against pass-catching backs this year, though it held Charles Sims in check last week, so Pierre Thomas gets a good opportunity to hit the ground running with his new club. Kendall Gaskins figures to get any goal-line work the Niners might scrounge up, though, so over the long haul San Fran's backfield looks like it'll be another fantasy wasteland unless Hyde somehow gets healthy before the end of the year.

Predictions: Freeman gains 130 combined yards and scores for the first time in three weeks. Ryan throws for 270 yards and two TDs to Jones. Thomas leads the 49ers' backfield with 60 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Gabbert looks competent in his debut, a big step up from Colin Kaepernick, and throws for 260 yards and a second score to Jerome Simpson. Falcons, 27-23

Denver at Indianapolis (+5) - Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Comments: Crazy stat of the week: Peyton Manning (75.1) and Andrew Luck (71.6) come into this game as the two lowest-rated starting QBs in the league. Only Ryan Mallett sits below them among current qualifiers. The list of quarterbacks ahead of them in QBR includes both rookies in Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, and Brandon Weeden and Colin Kaepernick. When you aren't playing better than guys who got ditched for Matt Cassel and Blaine Gabbert, it's time to do some soul-searching. That said, neither team is panicking. Manning's Broncos remain undefeated, so they can apparently live with him being more game manager than game changer, while the clouds may have parted for Luck, literally and figuratively, in last week's impressive second-half comeback attempt against the Panthers. ... Denver's backfield remains a guessing game, but at least now it's because both RBs are doing well and not because they're both stinking up your roster. Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson combined for 161 rushing yards and three TDs against Green Bay, and while Hillman might keep the starting job for "don't fix what ain't broke" reasons, Gary Kubiak could just end up riding the hot hand throughout the second half. The Colts' run defense isn't as bad as the Packers, but it's not good (tied for 28th with nine rushing touchdowns allowed and 28th with 124.9 rushing yards allowed a game), so either or both backs could get their opportunities. ... T.Y. Hilton's foot injury kept him out of practice all week, and he's a risky play this week even though Indy hasn't ruled him out yet. Denver stifles wide receivers anyway, so you wouldn't have been crazy to consider benching Hilton even if he were healthy. Whatever success Luck has, it might have to come through his tight ends.

Predictions: Anderson leads the Broncos' backfield with 90 rushing yards and a TD, but Hillman also contributes 60 combined yards. Manning has a good homecoming, throwing for 280 yards and touchdowns to Emmanuel Sanders and Andre Caldwell. Frank Gore grinds out 70 combined yards, while Luck throws for 250 yards and a TD to Coby Fleener. Broncos, 24-13

Philadelphia at Dallas (+2.5) - Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST

Comments: Hands up, everyone who thought these two teams would have a combined five wins at this point in the season. OK, you can put your hands down now, Giants and Washington fans. Both teams have surprisingly relied more on their defense than their offense to eke out what little success they've managed in 2015, but while the Cowboys can at least look forward to improved health from Dez Bryant and eventually Tony Romo to improve their offensive fortunes, the Eagles are stuck with Sam Bradford. Romo isn't back yet, though, so it's still up to Matt Cassel to find a way into the end zone, something he failed to do at all last week. ... At least Dallas' backfield picture is a little clearer. Joseph Randle got kicked to the curb, rookie La'el Collins woke up the juggernaut offensive line when he took over at left guard, and Darren McFadden has 275 combined yards the last two weeks. The Eagles' defense doesn't allow many RBs to get away from it, either on the ground or through the air, but DeMarco Murray managed 197 combined yards and three TDs in two games against Philly last season, so the Cowboys O-line is capable of opening some holes in that front seven. ... Speaking of Murray, he's well rested coming off a bye, likely won't have Ryan Mathews (groin) stealing touches from him, and has all the motivation in the world for one of those revenge games you hear so much about. Dallas' run defense is just average, and linebacker Rolando McClain hasn't been effectively clogging up the middle as he did in 2014 since returning from his suspension. Fade Murray at your peril.

Predictions: Murray erupts for 140 yards and two TDs. Bradford has another quiet game, though, throwing for less than 200 yards and a single touchdown to Darren Sproles. McFadden gains 90 combined yards and also scores, but Cassel struggles, getting picked off twice and throwing for 180 yards and a TD to Bryant. Kellen Moore replaces him late in the game and hits Devin Street for a touchdown to keep it close. Eagles, 27-24

Chicago (+4) at San Diego - Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST

Comments: Given all the other horrific injuries that happened last week, anyone with Matt Forte shares is probably both cursing his knee injury and thanking the football gods that it wasn't season-ending. Rookie Jeremy Langford, who banged out 46 yards against the Vikings after Forte got hurt, gets first crack at replacing him and gets the best possible scenario for his first career NFL start, facing a Chargers defense allowing a league-high 5.0 yards per carry. Langford doesn't have Forte's skills as a receiver, though, so Antone Smith could also be worth a look in deep PPR leagues if he inherits Forte's targets. ... The average San Diego game this year has seen a combined total of 52.3 points through the first half of the season. At some point, Philip Rivers is going to encounter a matchup or game flow that won't allow him to throw for 300-plus yards and multiple TDs, something he's done five consecutive games now, but it likely won't be on Monday. The Bears' defense allows a 103.5 QB rating against, 28th in the league, and doesn't have much of a pass rush to speak of. Keenan Allen's loss hurts a great deal, but Rivers still has Antonio Gates, Danny Woodhead and Malcom Floyd around, and even Dontrelle Inman looked pretty good in two starts at the end of last year when Allen was hurt, averaging six catches for 79 yards. ... One thing that might derail this glorious Riversrun, past Tom and Aaron, from qual of comm to emmantee (yes, I just made a labored James Joyce reference, one week after sneaking in a Pokemon joke with regard to Charcandrick West. Deal with it), is better results from Melvin Gordon. The Bears' run defense is just as bad as their pass defense, ranking 27th in YPC against at 4.7, so if Gordon can get going, there will be less pressure on Rivers to sling the ball around like a madman. At this point the rookie needs to prove it on the field before anyone can expect useful numbers out of him, as his first-round pedigree goodwill is long gone, but it's not inconceivable that he surprises everyone with a big second half.

Predictions: Langford hammers out 90 rushing yards and a touchdown. Jay Cutler throws for 280 yards and TDs to Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett, with Jeffery pulling down 110 receiving yards. Gordon has a solid game, rushing for 80 yards and a score, while Rivers makes it six straight big games with 330 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Gates, Inman and Steve Johnson. Floyd also tops 100 receiving yards. Chargers, 34-24

Last week's record: 11-3, 9-3-2 ATS
Season to date: 78-41, 62-52-5 ATS