NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 14

New England at Miami (+11), 47.5 o/u – Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST

The Story: If it were anyone else, you'd wonder if the Patriots peaked too early. Eight straight wins, never allowing more than 17 points in any of them while averaging 27.4 PPG of their own, is pretty darn impressive. It's not as impressive as their recent dominance of Miami, though. The head-to-head record below doesn't do justice to it. The Pats have scored at least 31 points in five of the last six meetings, winning all five (while losing the sixth 20-10 in Miami at the end of the 2015 season) and by an average margin of more than 20 points. There are a couple of rays of hope for the Fish in this one, though. They are 3-2 at home against New England during that five-year period, and last week's sideline tiff between Tom Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels might hint at some dysfunction creeping into the mix for the Pats. It'll probably take them losing, rather than Jay Cutler doing something to win the game, for the prime time upset to happen, though.

The Skinny:
•2017 NE offense: 29.0 PPG (3rd), 120.6 rushing yds/gm (9th), 305.8 passing yds/gm (1st), 27 sacks allowed (T-11th), eight turnovers (T-1st)
•2017 MIA offense: 17.4 PPG (26th), 84.7 rushing yds/gm (29th), 224.8 passing yds/gm (20th), 27 sacks allowed (T-11th), 23 turnovers (T-29th)
•2017 NE defense: 18.6 PPG allowed (9th), 120.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (26th), 271.8 passing yds/gm allowed (30th), 28 sacks (T-18th), 17 turnovers (T-12th)
•2017 MIA defense: 24.8 PPG allowed (T-24th), 116.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (21st), 235.3 passing yds/gm allowed (12th), 21 sacks (T-27th), 13 turnovers (T-25th)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 NE, average score NE 28-MIA 17, average margin of victory 16 points.
•Cutler career stats versus NE, three games: 0-3, 59.8 percent completion rate, 182.3 passing yds/gm, 4:5 TD:INT, 6.8 YPA, 70.5 QB rating.
•Weather forecast: clear, 11 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Rex Burkhead leads the NE backfield with 100 combined yards and a score, while Dion Lewis also notches a TD. Brady throws for 320 yards and three TDs, hitting Brandin Cooks, Danny Amendola and Dwayne Allen. Kenyan Drake picks up 70 combined yards. Cutler throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Jarvis Landry but gets picked off twice. Patriots, 38-13

Indianapolis at Buffalo (PK), no o/u line – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: It's funny how much of a difference scheduling makes in the perception of a team. The Colts have three wins and the Browns zero, but the former have been every bit as bad statistically as the latter this season, with Indy's minus-125 point differential on the season being only a whisker better than Cleveland's minus-132. Playing in the soft AFC South as opposed to the bruising AFC North has its benefits. The Colts might get another break here, as Tyrod Taylor will be a game-time decision with a knee injury, and the apparent dropoff from him to Nathan Peterman would make Felix Baumgartner flinch. The Bills do still have LeSean McCoy, though, and the Colts have difficulty containing even average running backs.

The Skinny:
•2017 IND offense: 17.1 PPG (28th), 99.1 rushing yds/gm (24th), 222.5 passing yds/gm (22nd), 51 sacks allowed (32nd), 15 turnovers (T-8th)
•2017 BUF offense: 18.9 PPG (23rd), 122.0 rushing yds/gm (8th), 190.4 passing yds/gm (30th), 35 sacks allowed (T-22nd), 14 turnovers (7th)
•2017 IND defense: 27.5 PPG allowed (32nd), 108.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (14th), 283.0 passing yds/gm allowed (32nd), 20 sacks (T-30th), 16 turnovers (T-14th)
•2017 BUF defense: 23.6 PPG allowed (19th), 120.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (25th), 250.5 passing yds/gm allowed (22nd), 20 sacks (T-30th), 20 turnovers (T-7th)
•McCoy career stats versus IND, three games: 71.7 rushing yds/gm, 4.1 YPC, one rushing TD, 10 catches on 13 targets for 77 yards and zero receiving TDs
•Key injuries, IND: WR Donte Moncrief (ankle, out), CB Rashaan Melvin (hand, out); BUF: QB Tyrod Taylor (knee, questionable)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, 18 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Frank Gore runs for 50 yards, but Marlon Mack surprises with 80 combined yards and a TD. Jacoby Brissett throws for less than 200 yards with a touchdown to T.Y. Hilton. McCoy rips off 120 combined yards and a score. Taylor plays and throws for 230 yards and a TD to Charles Clay. Bills, 20-17

Dallas at N.Y. Giants (+4.5), 41.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Nothing illustrates the Giants' current dysfunction better than the fact that Bob McAdoo was let go because he slighted Saint Eli and not because of his generally bad coaching, but however they got here, they now get a semi-fresh start under Steve Spagnuolo. The team still has a gutted receiving corps and arguably the worst linebacking group in the league, but with Manning back under center, the defense likely energized with their guy in the top job, and a chance to rip the rug out from under the hated Cowboys' faint playoff hopes, it's easy to see this being one of the rare weeks New York actually shows up. Dallas' defense has plenty of injuries of its own, but they seem likely to get Sean Lee back, and if Alfred Morris and the O-line can just get them through two winnable road games over the next two weeks, they'll get Ezekiel Elliott back in time for a must-win game against the Seahawks.

The Skinny:
•2017 DAL offense: 23.8 PPG (10th), 138.8 rushing yds/gm (3rd), 201.8 passing yds/gm (29th), 25 sacks allowed (10th), 16 turnovers (T-16th)
•2017 NYG offense: 15.8 PPG (31st), 89.1 rushing yds/gm (27th), 218.6 passing yds/gm (24th), 29 sacks allowed (T-18th), 15 turnovers (T-8th)
•2017 DAL defense: 23.7 PPG allowed (20th), 107.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (12th), 256.8 passing yds/gm allowed (24th), 32 sacks (T-11th), 16 turnovers (T-14th)
•2017 NYG defense: 24.3 PPG allowed (23rd), 130.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (32nd), 270.2 passing yds/gm allowed (29th), 21 sacks (T-27th), 14 turnovers (T-22nd)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 DAL, average score DAL 24-NYG 21, average margin of victory six points. Prior to Week 1's 19-3 win by DAL, only one of the games during that stretch had been decided by more than one score – a 31-21 DAL win in 2014.
•Key injuries, DAL: LB Sean Lee (hamstring, questionable), DE David Irving (concussion, questionable), CB Orlando Scandrick (back, doubtful); NYG: WR Sterling Shepard (hamstring, questionable), DE Jason Pierre-Paul (finger, questionable), CB Eli Apple (hip, questionable), LB B.J. Goodson (elbow, out)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, 11 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Morris picks up 70 yards, while Rod Smith adds 40 yards. Dak Prescott throws for 220 yards and a TD to Jason Witten while running in a touchdown of his own. Darkwa manages 60 yards. Eli Manning throws for 250 yards and TDs to Shepard and Evan Engram. Giants, 23-20

Detroit at Tampa Bay (PK), no o/u line – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Lions' offense is a triage ward. Matthew Stafford is nursing injuries to his ankle and throwing hand, Ameer Abdullah is still questionable with a neck issue, and three of their offensive linemen are banged up as well. Fortunately, they're playing the team with the worst pass rush in the league, so Stafford's limited mobility and lack of protection might not be a big problem if he starts. They absolutely need him to start, too. At 6-6 they need to run the table to have a shot at a wild-card spot, and their final three games (home to CHI, at CIN, home to GB) are all winnable, especially if Aaron Rodgers doesn't get activated to play in games that could be relatively meaningless for the Packers. Tampa's already just playing out the string, neither good enough for the playoffs not bad enough for a shot at one of the top picks in the 2018 draft, but they are at home and at least have everyone healthy on their offense, so they might just decide to make their draft position worse.

The Skinny:
•2017 DET offense: 26.2 PPG (5th), 78.3 rushing yds/gm (31st), 277.2 passing yds/gm (2nd), 39 sacks allowed (T-28th), 17 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 TB offense: 20.3 PPG (22nd), 88.1 rushing yds/gm (28th), 274.4 passing yds/gm (5th), 27 sacks allowed (T-11th), 15 turnovers (T-8th)
•2017 DET defense: 25.7 PPG allowed (T-26th), 114.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (19th), 257.5 passing yds/gm allowed (26th), 23 sacks (24th), 19 turnovers (T-9th)
•2017 TB defense: 24.0 PPG allowed (T-21st), 118.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (23rd), 275.7 passing yds/gm allowed (31st), 17 sacks (32nd), 21 turnovers (T-4th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: DET, fourth against WR1s (minus 29.8 percent DVOA), 31st against TEs (plus 26.5 percent DVOA), fifth against RBs (minus 21.2 percent DVOA); TB, 29th against other WRs (plus 31.1 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: clear, 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Theo Riddick leads the DET backfield with 70 combined yards. Stafford starts but clearly isn't 100 percent, throwing for 220 yards and a TD to Marvin Jones. Doug Martin plods for 50 yards. Jameis Winston throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Cameron Brate and DeSean Jackson while running in another score of his own. Buccaneers, 24-16

Oakland (+4) at Kansas City, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The AFC West is now officially a dogfight, with the Chiefs being the mangiest mutts of the bunch. They've lost four straight and six of seven to throw away their big division lead, and while the offense showed signs of life last week, their defense still managed to mess things up. The Raiders have won two straight to climb back to .500 and into the mix for a division title, but they don't exactly have any signature wins. The combined record of the teams they've beaten is 29-43, and their only win over a club with a winning record came against the Titans in Week 1. Of course they did steal a win over Kansas City back in Week 7, but that one looks less impressive with each passing second. This one will likely be decided by whichever defense folds up like a cheap card table at the most critical time, and it wouldn't be surprising for one unit to give up what seems like an excruciating, game-losing play, only for the other to say, "Hold my beer".

The Skinny:
•2017 OAK offense: 20.8 PPG (21st), 93.3 rushing yds/gm (25th), 249.7 passing yds/gm (16th), 18 sacks allowed (6th), 17 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 KC offense: 25.3 PPG (6th), 112.6 rushing yds/gm (15th), 269.9 passing yds/gm (9th), 29 sacks allowed (T-18th), eight turnovers (T-1st)
•2017 OAK defense: 23.2 PPG allowed (16th), 104.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (11th), 251.3 passing yds/gm allowed (23rd), 22 sacks (T-25th), nine turnovers (32nd)
•2017 KC defense: 22.8 PPG allowed (15th), 129.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (30th), 262.8 passing yds/gm allowed (28th), 21 sacks (T-27th), 14 turnovers (T-22nd)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 KC, average score KC 26-OAK 19, average margin of victory 12 points. KC had won five straight in the series before Week 7's 31-30 OAK victory.
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: OAK, 32nd against WR1s (plus 29.3 percent DVOA), 30th against other Wrs (plus 33.5 percent DVOA); KC, 31st against WR1s (plus 28.8 percent DVOA), first against RBs (minus 31.0 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: clear, 11 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Marshawn Lynch rumbles for 80 yards and a TD. Derek Carr throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Michael Crabtree. Kareem Hunt scrounges up 70 combined yards. Alex Smith throws for 260 yards and scores to Travis Kelce and Albert Wilson, but Karl Joseph returns a Tyreek Hill fumble for what proves to be the winning score. Raiders, 24-20

San Francisco (+3) at Houston, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: As starting debuts go, zero TDs and a 7.9 YPA doesn't exactly scream future Hall of Famer, but Jimmy Garoppolo got the Niners their second win of the year, and that's all that really matters. Two in a row seems decidedly possible, too, as the Texans have dropped five of their last six including a home loss to the Colts. To pull it off, though, Jimmy G will need his secondary to contain the suddenly competent Tom Savage, who fired up 365 yards last week and gets back Will Fuller for this one. The San Fran defense did manage to stifle Mitchell Trubusky last week, but even Eli had a strong game against them statistically, so soothing the Savage beast might be a little beyond their capabilities.

The Skinny:
•2017 SF offense: 16.8 PPG (29th), 100.8 rushing yds/gm (22nd), 248.8 passing yds/gm (17th), 37 sacks allowed (26th), 18 turnovers (24th)
•2017 HOU offense: 24.7 PPG (8th), 117.0 rushing yds/gm (10th), 254.0 passing yds/gm (15th), 38 sacks allowed (27th), 23 turnovers (T-29th)
•2017 SF defense: 24.8 PPG allowed (T-24th), 123.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (29th), 242.8 passing yds/gm allowed (17th), 22 sacks (T-25th), 13 turnovers (T-25th)
•2017 HOU defense: 25.8 PPG allowed (28th), 104.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (10th), 249.9 passing yds/gm allowed (21st), 28 sacks (T-18th), 15 turnovers (T-20th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: SF, 29th against WR2s (plus 28.5 percent DVOA), 28th against other WRs (plus 22.8 percent DVOA), third against TEs (minus 26.5 percent DVOA), 31st against RBs (plus 26.4 percent DVOA); HOU, 31st against WR2s (plus 32.2 percent DVOA), fourth against RBs (minus 22.0 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Carlos Hyde puts together 70 yards and a TD. Garoppolo throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Louis Murphy. Lamar Miller explodes for 110 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Savage throws for 250 yards and a second TD to DeAndre Hopkins. Texans, 27-20

Green Bay at Cleveland (+3), 40.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Brett Hundley has gone 2-4 as a starter since Aaron Rodgers went down, but with Rodgers apparently on track to return next week in Carolina and the team at .500 overall, Hundley just needs one more win to keep the Packers' playoff hopes barely alive before he hands the reins back to the big guy for another potentially miraculous finish to a season. Beating the only winless team in the league should be a piece of cake, even for Hundley, but nothing comes easy when you've got a miserable 70.6 QB rating. Josh Gordon's return to action last week didn't spark Cleveland to a win, but he did look far better than he had any right to, and the Packers' secondary doesn't have a Casey Heyward to match up against him. In fact, they don't have much of anybody right now with three corners on IR, a fourth (Demetri Goodson) already ruled out and a fifth (Devon House) listed as doubtful due to a shoulder injury. They even had to promote a ninja turtle from the practice squad. When Damarious Randall is your best cover guy, you have problems. DeShone Kizer's QB rating is somehow even worse than Hundley's at 58.1, but even he might be able to do some damage against the tattered remnants of this secondary if the weather cooperates.

The Skinny:
•2017 GB offense: 21.5 PPG (20th), 108.6 rushing yds/gm (16th), 221.2 passing yds/gm (23rd), 42 sacks allowed (31st), 15 turnovers (T-8th)
•2017 CLE offense: 14.7 PPG (32nd), 105.8 rushing yds/gm (19th), 223.4 passing yds/gm (21st), 39 sacks allowed (T-28th), 30 turnovers (32nd)
•2017 GB defense: 23.4 PPG allowed (17th), 111.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (15th), 260.3 passing yds/gm allowed (27th), 29 sacks (T-15th), 20 turnovers (T-7th)
•2017 CLE defense: 25.7 PPG allowed (T-26th), 96.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (6th), 241.3 passing yds/gm allowed (15th), 24 sacks (T-22nd), 11 turnovers (T-27th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: GB, 29th against WR1s (plus 25.3 percent DVOA); CLE, 30th against WR1s (plus 26.9 percent DVOA), fourth against WR2s (minus 40.4 percent DVOA), 32nd against TEs (plus 31.8 percent DVOA), 30th against RBs (plus 20.9 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, 18 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Jamaal Williams leads the GB backfield with 50 yards. Hundley throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Lance Kendricks. Isaiah Crowell manages 60 yards and a score, while Duke Johnson adds 50 combined yards. Kizer also throws for less than 200 yards but hits Gordon for a game-winning TD. Browns, 17-13

Chicago (+6) at Cincinnati, 38.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Da Bears have lost five straight, and their offensive predictability has finally begun to take its toll on Jordan Howard's production. The second-year back has just 44 rushing yards over his last two games for a 2.2 YPC, and you know things are bad when even the 49ers front seven can bottle you up. On paper the Bengals would seem like a good opponent to rebound against, but their 4.0 YPC allowed is actually decent and they've only given up five rushing TDs to running backs all season – their bulk yards surrendered is more due to unfavorable game situations and teams shying away from challenging their secondary. (Facing Le'Veon Bell twice already hasn't helped, either). A rash of injuries to the Cincinnati defense might open up some room for Howard, though. Meanwhile Andy Dalton has quietly found his groove, putting up an 11:0 TD:INT over his last six games with a 7.3 YPA, and both on paper and on the field, Chicago doesn't seem likely to get him out of it.

The Skinny:
•2017 CHI offense: 15.9 PPG (30th), 115.5 rushing yds/gm (T-12th), 177.4 passing yds/gm (32nd), 29 sacks allowed (T-18th), 19 turnovers (25th)
•2017 CIN offense: 18.3 PPG (T-24th), 80.2 rushing yds/gm (30th), 217.2 passing yds/gm (25th), 30 sacks allowed (21st), 17 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 CHI defense: 22.3 PPG allowed (14th), 112.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (16th), 238.1 passing yds/gm allowed (14th), 32 sacks (T-11th), 16 turnovers (T-14th)
•2017 CIN defense: 19.8 PPG allowed (T-10th), 123.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (28th), 228.7 passing yds/gm allowed (7th), 34 sacks (T-5th), 11 turnovers (T-27th)
•Key injuries, CHI: DT Eddie Goldman (hip, doubtful), CB Adrian Amos (hamstring, doubtful); CIN: LB Vontaze Burfict (concussion, out), DT Geno Atkins (toe, questionable), CB Adam Jones (groin, out), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (concussion, out), RB Joe Mixon (concussion, out), S Shawn Williams (hamstring, out)
•Weather forecast: clear, 11 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Howard puts together 60 yards. Mitchell Trubisky throws for less than 200 yards as usual but does hit Dontrelle Inman for a TD. Giovani Bernard gains 70 yards and a score. Dalton throws for 220 yards and two touchdowns to A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd. Bengals, 24-7

Minnesota at Carolina (+2.5), 41.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The race for the top seed in the NFC playoffs got a lot more interesting last week when the Vikings kept racking up victories and the Eagles didn't, but Minnesota still has one more tall hurdle to clear (or two, if Rodgers is back in Week 16 for the Packers) on their way to winning out. Since their bye, Case Keenum has a 9:2 TD:INT and 8.6 YPA over their last four games, but the unheralded stars of their season have been the offensive line – Keenum's only been sacked nine times in 11 games. They'll have their work cut out for them against the Panthers' pass rush, but Cam Newton will need to improve on his recent scattershot form (54.4 percent completion rate and a 6.5 YPA over his last four games, albeit with a 6:0 TD:INT) if Carolina's going to hold serve and remain in a tie with New Orleans atop the NFC South.

The Skinny:
•2017 MIN offense: 23.8 PPG (11th), 122.8 rushing yds/gm (6th), 257.1 passing yds/gm (12th), 14 sacks allowed (2nd), 10 turnovers (T-3rd)
•2017 CAR offense: 22.4 PPG (16th), 127.8 rushing yds/gm (5th), 216.7 passing yds/gm (26th), 28 sacks allowed (T-15th), 17 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 MIN defense: 17.0 PPG allowed (2nd), 77.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 229.3 passing yds/gm allowed (8th), 30 sacks (14th), 14 turnovers (T-22nd)
•2017 CAR defense: 19.8 PPG allowed (T-10th), 88.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (4th), 226.3 passing yds/gm allowed (6th), 34 sacks (T-5th), 11 turnovers (T-27th)
•Newton career stats versus MIN, four games: 1-3, 61.8 percent completion rate, 247.0 passing yds/gm, 7:4 TD:INT, 7.5 YPA, 90.1 QB rating, 39.5 rushing yds/gm, two rushing TDs
•MIN has allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league to opposition QBs: 56 yards, or only 4.7 yards per game.
•Weather forecast: clear, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Latavius Murray grinds out 70 yards and a score, while Jerick McKinnon adds 50 combined yards. Keenum throws for 250 yards and TDs to Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Christian McCaffrey picks up 80 combined yards. Newton throws for 210 yards and a touchdown to Greg Olsen while running in a score of his own. Vikings 24-23

Washington (+6) at L.A. Chargers, 46.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: Washington isn't officially done yet, but at 5-7 they have no realistic shot at a wild-card berth. At least Kirk Cousins has a contract to play for, while Samaje Perine will get a chance to prove he's the next Alfred Morris and not the next Rob Kelley. The Bolts, on the other hand, find themselves in the thick of a division title race despite their 0-4 start and overall 6-6 record. Remember when the AFC West was one of the most dangerous and deep groups in the league? Good times. Now there's a decent chance whoever takes the crown won't even be over .500. Philip Rivers has been on fire, though, posting an 8:1 TD:INT and 8.7 YPA over his last four games, and if he stays locked in a weak schedule down the stretch might allow them to win out and post a respectable 10-win season.

The Skinny:
•2017 WAS offense: 22.7 PPG (14th), 100.3 rushing yds/gm (23rd), 274.1 passing yds/gm (6th), 35 sacks allowed (T-22nd), 20 turnovers (T-26th)
•2017 LAC offense: 22.3 PPG (17th), 93.3 rushing yds/gm (26th), 277.1 passing yds/gm (3rd), 13 sacks allowed (1st), 10 turnovers (T-3rd)
•2017 WAS defense: 26.2 PPG allowed (30th), 117.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (22nd), 238.0 passing yds/gm allowed (13th), 29 sacks (T-15th), 16 turnovers (T-14th)
•2017 LAC defense: 17.7 PPG allowed (4th), 129.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (31st), 222.8 passing yds/gm allowed (5th), 35 sacks (4th), 21 turnovers (T-4th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: WAS, fifth against WR1s (minus 20.6 percent DVOA), fourth against other WRs (minus 24.4 percent DVOA); LAC, fifth against WR2s (minus 33.0 percent DVOA)
•Key injuries, WAS: TE Jordan Reed (hamstring, out), LB Zach Brown (Achilles, questionable)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Perine rumbles for 80 yards and a score. Cousins throws for 240 yards and TDs to Jamison Crowder and Vernon Davis, but he also gets picked off twice. Melvin Gordon bangs out 100 combined yards and a touchdown, while Austin Ekeler also adds 50 combined yards and a receiving score. Rivers throws for 290 yards and two additional touchdowns to Hunter Henry and Travis Benjamin. Chargers, 34-24

N.Y. Jets at Denver (+1), 41.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: While the Jets have surprised just about everyone by already winning five games this year, their relative success hasn't extended to the road, where they're 1-4. Josh McCown has led the way on that front, racking up a 103.2 QB rating at home and an 87.5 mark in away games, so while the Broncos' secondary isn't performing at the level it's established over the last couple of seasons, business could be about to pick up for them. The question for Denver is what kind of effort they'll get from their own QB. Trevor Siemian was brutal last week against the Dolphins but will get another start, because why not. Even including his "good" game in relief of Paxton Lynch against the Raiders, Siemian has a 3:7 TD:INT and 5.7 YPA over his last four games.

The Skinny:
•2017 NYJ offense: 22.2 PPG (T-18th), 106.8 rushing yds/gm (18th), 242.6 passing yds/gm (29th), 35 sacks allowed (T-22nd), 17 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 DEN offense: 17.2 PPG (27th), 107.3 rushing yds/gm (17th), 230.0 passing yds/gm (19th), 39 sacks allowed (T-28th), 27 turnovers (31st)
•2017 NYJ defense: 24.0 PPG allowed (T-21st), 119.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (24th), 244.8 passing yds/gm allowed (19th), 24 sacks (T-22nd), 17 turnovers (T-12th)
•2017 DEN defense: 26.3 PPG allowed (31st), 92.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (5th), 215.3 passing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 26 sacks (21st), 11 turnovers (T-27th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: NYJ, 27th against WR1s (plus 22.1 percent DVOA); DEN, second against WR1s (minus 41.0 percent DVOA), 32nd against other WRs (plus 40.7 percent DVOA)
•McCown career stats versus DEN, four games (three starts): 1-2, 54.9 percent completion rate, 142.3 passing yds/gm in the starts, 6:6 TD:INT, 5.5 YPA, 64.5 QB rating. His one win against them came in 2007 with OAK.
•Weather forecast: clear, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Bilal Powell leads the NYJ backfield with 60 combined yards. McCown throws for 210 yards and a TD to Austin Seferian-Jenkins but gets picked off twice. C.J. Anderson piles up 90 combined yards and a touchdown. Siemian throws for 240 yards and a TD to Demaryius Thomas. Broncos, 20-13

Tennessee at Arizona (+3), 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: It says something about the Titans's marshmallow schedule that they're 8-4 despite having a negative point differential on the season – in fact, they're the only team in the red above .500 in the whole NFL. An offense that remains stuck in the mud without a fully healthy DeMarco Murray to power the engine is their biggest issue. Tennessee hasn't scored more than 24 points in a game since Week 6, and that came against Indy so it really shouldn't count. Since then, they've gone 5-1 while averaging just 20 points a game, so good job Titans defense. Then again, the only good offense they faced during that stretch was the Steelers, who blew them out 40-17, so good job, NFL schedule-makers, I guess. The Blaie Gabbert-led, David Johnson-less Cards definitely don't count as good, but his 6:5 TD:INT in three games as the starter at least makes things more exciting than they would be with Drew Stanton under center.

The Skinny:
•2017 TEN offense: 22.2 PPG (T-18th), 122.1 rushing yds/gm (7th), 215.4 passing yds/gm (27th), 27 sacks allowed (T-11th), 20 turnovers (T-26th)
•2017 ARI offense: 18.3 PPG (T-24th), 76.6 rushing yds/gm (32nd), 269.8 passing yds/gm (10th), 36 sacks allowed (25th), 20 turnovers (T-26th)
•2017 TEN defense: 23.5 PPG allowed (18th), 86.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (3rd), 256.8 passing yds/gm allowed (25th), 29 sacks (T-15th), 16 turnovers (T-14th)
•2017 ARI defense: 25.8 PPG allowed (29th), 99.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (9th), 246.4 passing yds/gm allowed (20th), 28 sacks (T-18th), 15 turnovers (T-20th)
•Key injuries, TEN: LB Derrick Morgan (knee, out); ARI: RB Adrian Peterson (neck, out), WR John Brown (toe, out), CB Patrick Peterson (hamstring, questionable), WR J.J. Nelson (knee, questionable), DT Corey Peters (ankle, questionable)
•Murray career stats versus ARI, three games: 40 rushing yds/gm, zero TDs, four catches on four targets for 11 yards and zero TDs
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Derrick Henry leads the TEN backfield with 60 yards. Marcus Mariota throws for 260 yards and a TD to Rishard Matthews while running in a score as well. Kerwynn Willians runs for 40 yards, but D.J. Foster catches a touchdown pass. Gabbert throws for 250 yards and a second score to Larry Fitzgerald. Cardinals, 20-17

Philadelphia (+2) at LA Rams, 48.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, 2016 draft, blah blah blah. Let's give a little love to the defenses too, as they've played a huge role in their teams' success this season. These two units are top 10 in multiple categories and have nearly identical PPG allowed. Their QB ratings against are also in lockstep (77.0 for Philly, 77.3 for LA) and are both in the top five. The differences between them could be crucial here, though. The Eagles have given up more bulk yards through the air, as their secondary remains their weakest link, while the Rams' defense has been vulnerable on the ground, which isn't a shock for a Wade Phillips-coached squad. Whichever QB best exploits those chinks in the armor is the one that should come out on top.

The Skinny:
•2017 PHI offense: 30.1 PPG (T-1st), 143.3 rushing yds/gm (2nd), 255.1 passing yds/gm (14th), 28 sacks allowed (T-15th), 15 turnovers (T-8th)
•2017 LAR offense: 30.1 PPG (T-1st), 115.2 rushing yds/gm (14th), 269.2 passing yds/gm (11th), 20 sacks allowed (T-7th), 15 turnovers (T-8th)
•2017 PHI defense: 17.9 PPG allowed (6th), 68.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (1st), 244.3 passing yds/gm allowed (18th), 33 sacks (T-9th), 22 turnovers (3rd)
•2017 LAR defense: 18.5 PPG allowed (T-7th), 122.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (27th), 229.8 passing yds/gm allowed (9th), 38 sacks (3rd), 21 turnovers (T-4th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: PHI, first against WR2s (minus 49.2 percent DVOA); LAR, third against WR2s (minus 40.5 percent DVOA), fourth against TEs (minus 22.9 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jay Ajayi leads the PHI backfield with 70 combined yards, while LeGarrette Blount pounds in a TD. Wentz throws for 220 yards and a score to Alshon Jeffery. Todd Gurley manages 50 yards. Goff throws for 300 yards and touchdowns to Tavon Austin and Cooper Kupp. Rams, 23-20

Seattle (+2.5) at Jacksonville, 40.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: While most eyes will be on the Eagles-Rams tilt, this one is a pretty major clash as well. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are the old, veteran stalwarts who seem nearly unbeatable in December, no matter how patchwork their secondary is, while the Jaguars are the flashy new hotness (on defense, anyway) who have yet to really prove they're the real deal on the big stage. Half their losses on the year have come against the NFC West, including Week 12's embarrassment in Arizona. If Leonard Fournette could ever get healthy, they'd be a lot more fearsome, but he hasn't topped a 4.0 YPC in four games while playing through an ankle issue. If he can't grind out some first downs and long drives to keep Wilson off the field, Jacksonville could be in for another rough day.

The Skinny:
•2017 SEA offense: 24.2 PPG (9th), 102.8 rushing yds/gm (21st), 271.0 passing yds/gm (8th), 28 sacks allowed (T-15th), 12 turnovers (5th)
•2017 JAC offense: 24.9 PPG (7th), 149.4 rushing yds/gm (1st), 215.2 passing yds/gm (28th), 20 sacks allowed (T-7th), 15 turnovers (T-8th)
•2017 SEA defense: 18.5 PPG allowed (T-7th), 98.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (7th), 241.5 passing yds/gm allowed (16th), 32 sacks (T-11th), 19 turnovers (T-9th)
•2017 JAC defense: 14.8 PPG allowed (1st), 115.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (20th), 191.6 passing yds/gm allowed (1st), 45 sacks (1st), 27 turnovers (2nd)
•Wilson career stats in the month of December, 23 games: 18-5, 64.6 percent completion rate, 239.0 passing yds/gm, 46:15 TD:INT, 8.2 YPA, 103.7 QB rating, 36.1 rushing yds/gm, seven rushing TDs
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: SEA, 27th against WR2s (plus 25.1 percent DVOA), fifth against other WRs (minus 21.6 percent DVOA), second against RBs (minus 27.3 percent DVOA); JAC, first against WR1s (minus 66.4 percent DVOA), third against other WRs (minus 25.5 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: clear, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mike Davis picks up 60 combined yards. Wilson throws for 240 yards and a TD to J.D. McKissic. Fournette pounds out 80 yards and a score. Blake Bortles throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Dede Westbrook. Jaguars, 20-16

Baltimore (+5) at Pittsburgh, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST

The Story: What's gotten into the Ravens? After scoring more than 24 points just once in their first seven games, averaging 18.6 PPG, they've now hit for 40 twice in their last five and scored at least 20 in all of them, averaging a robust 30.0 PPG during that stretch while going 4-1. Joe Flacco does have his two best games of the season in terms of passing yards during that streak, but he's also topped a 6.7 YPA only once, so don't give him too much credit. Alex Collins has four TDs in the last three games to solidify the backfield, but he hasn't been unstoppable either, compiling 415 YFS in those five games. The Steelers, meanwhile, have won seven straight despite consistently playing down to the level of their competition. The potentially career-threatening injury suffered by Ryan Shazier last week adds plenty of volatility to what was already a volatile (in the other sense) rivalry, though. Pittsburgh's defense will be without one of its key players, which could leave them vulnerable to Baltimore's suddenly potent attack, but they could also ride the emotion of the occasion straight to an eighth straight victory.

The Skinny:
•2017 BAL offense: 23.3 PPG (13th), 115.5 rushing yds/gm (T-12th), 186.5 passing yds/gm (31st), 23 sacks allowed (9th), 15 turnovers (T-8th)
•2017 PIT offense: 23.4 PPG (12th), 103.1 rushing yds/gm (20th), 273.5 passing yds/gm (7th), 16 sacks allowed (3rd), 17 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 BAL defense: 17.3 PPG allowed (3rd), 112.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (17th), 217.7 passing yds/gm allowed (3rd), 33 sacks (T-9th), 29 turnovers (1st)
•2017 PIT defense: 17.8 PPG allowed (5th), 98.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (8th), 219.7 passing yds/gm allowed (4th), 40 sacks (2nd), 16 turnovers (T-14th)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 BAL, average score PIT 22-BAL 20, average margin of victory seven points. Eight of the games were decided by a single score, and six of them by a field goal of less.
•Le'Veon Bell career stats versus BAL, eight games: 84.0 rushing yds/gm, 4.6 YPC, five rushing TDs, 38 catches on 47 targets for 271 yds and two receiving TDs
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, 11 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Collins gets held to 40 yards, but Danny Woodhead catches a TD pass. Flacco throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice, one of which Sean Davis returns to the house. Bell racks up 130 combined yards and a touchdown. Ben Roethlisberger throws for 230 yards and a TD to Antonio Brown. Steelers, 27-10

New Orleans at Atlanta (+1), 51.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EST

The Story: This is basically a must-win game for the Falcons. A victory puts them one game back of New Orleans for the NFC South title (with one more game against the Saints to go) and, at worst, in the driver's seat for a wild-card spot. A loss would pretty much eliminate them from the hunt for a division crown and force them to win out to have any shot at the postseason. The Saints have plenty to play for as well, though, as the Eagles' loss last week puts best record in the NFC up for grabs. Their secondary is also slowly getting healthier, though Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Williams both likely will be game-time decisions. The real question is which version of the Atlanta offense shows up. In the three games Devonta Freeman effectively missed (getting hurt early in Week 10's tilt against Dallas), the Falcons averaged 31.7 points per game while winning all three. Once Freeman returned, they failed to score a TD on home turf. They're 1-5 over their last six games with Freeman getting a full workload, averaging 15.2 PPG during that stretch, and while it may not be Freeman's fault, it almost certainly is offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian's. This may be a case of analysis paralysis, where Sarkisian simply has too many viable options at his disposal and can't juggle them effectively the way Kyle Shanahan did. Removing Freeman from the equation allowed everyone else to find a rhythm, a rhythm that got lost against the Vikings last week.

The Skinny:
•2017 NO offense: 29.4 PPG (3rd), 142.6 rushing yds/gm (3rd), 274.8 passing yds/gm (4th), 15 sacks allowed (3rd), 12 turnovers (T-5th)
•2017 ATL offense: 22.8 PPG (14th), 115.6 rushing yds/gm (11th), 259.0 passing yds/gm (12th), 16 sacks allowed (T-4th), 13 turnovers (7th)
•2017 NO defense: 20.3 PPG allowed (12th), 112.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (17th), 236.1 passing yds/gm allowed (12th), 33 sacks (T-7th), 15 turnovers (T-19th)
•2017 ATL defense: 20.3 PPG allowed (13th), 113.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (18th), 228.0 passing yds/gm allowed (7th), 32 sacks (T-10th), 10 tunrovers(31st)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score ATL 27-NO 25, average margin of victory eight points.
•Matt Ryan career stats versus NO, 17 games: 7-10, 65.2 percent completion rate, 299.6 passing yds/gm, 30:8 TD:INT, 7.8 YPA, 99.2 QB rating
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Alvin Kamara piles up 140 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Mark Ingram adds 60 yards. Drew Brees throws for 260 yards and two more touchdowns, one to Michael Thomas and one to Ted Ginn. Freeman responds with 100 yards and a score, while Tevin Coleman chips in with 50 yards and a receiving touchdown. Matt Ryan throws for 280 yards and a second TD to Mohamed Sanu. Saints, 31-27

Last week's record: 13-3, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 122-70, 86-98-8 ATS, 89-99-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS