NFL Draft: Dynasty Rookie Mock

NFL Draft: Dynasty Rookie Mock

With the Senior Bowl concluded, we figured it was time to churn out some updated content regarding the dynasty value of the upcoming rookie class. John and I did a three-round mock scenario for a 12-team league, with the picks assigned in a linear fashion. So the team picking 1.01 also picks 2.01, and 3.01. John took the odd numbered selections and I took the evens.

Note: we did this mock just before the Senior Bowl game. I'm assuming someone like D.J. Chark would go at least a round higher if we redid it today. Check beyond the end of the draft to see our honorable mentions who went undrafted.

Round 1

1. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State* (5-foot-11, 230 pounds)
DOB: 2/7/1997 (21)

About as big of a no-brainer as there could possibly be, Barkley was the easy choice to be the top pick in this Mock Devy and the easy choice to be the top pick in every rookie draft. Barkley appears at least proficient in all tasks. He's built to run between the tackles with authority at 5-foot-11, 230 with an extremely strong trunk, yet he has the lateral agility and balance to dice through traffic and find open space – topped off with the long speed to outrun the defense. He also fits the mold of a modern NFL back in the sense that he is lethal in the passing game. Barkley caught 54 of 68 targets for 632 yards and three scores in his

With the Senior Bowl concluded, we figured it was time to churn out some updated content regarding the dynasty value of the upcoming rookie class. John and I did a three-round mock scenario for a 12-team league, with the picks assigned in a linear fashion. So the team picking 1.01 also picks 2.01, and 3.01. John took the odd numbered selections and I took the evens.

Note: we did this mock just before the Senior Bowl game. I'm assuming someone like D.J. Chark would go at least a round higher if we redid it today. Check beyond the end of the draft to see our honorable mentions who went undrafted.

Round 1

1. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State* (5-foot-11, 230 pounds)
DOB: 2/7/1997 (21)

About as big of a no-brainer as there could possibly be, Barkley was the easy choice to be the top pick in this Mock Devy and the easy choice to be the top pick in every rookie draft. Barkley appears at least proficient in all tasks. He's built to run between the tackles with authority at 5-foot-11, 230 with an extremely strong trunk, yet he has the lateral agility and balance to dice through traffic and find open space – topped off with the long speed to outrun the defense. He also fits the mold of a modern NFL back in the sense that he is lethal in the passing game. Barkley caught 54 of 68 targets for 632 yards and three scores in his final season at Penn State and looked natural as a route runner and as a pass catcher. He's essentially a lock to be the first skill position player off the board and will be an instant-impact rookie who projects for multiple All-Pro seasons. -John


2. Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia (5-foot-10, 225 pounds)
DOB: 12/27/1995 (22)

Once Barkley goes off the board, the next three picks figure to be a matter of contentious differing preferences. I have no strong opinion of whether it's Chubb, Sony Michel, or Derrius Guice who would be the best pick – indeed, I would prefer to have the fourth pick and just take the leftover than have to make a call at 1.02 or 1.03.

I went with Chubb here because his 2017 season gives me faith that he's on a sound trajectory to recover his pre-injury form. If Chubb is the same player he was before his knee injury 2015, then the gap between he and Barkley would be minimal if it were to exist at all. The memory of it may have faded for some, but Chubb in his first two seasons at Georgia was absolutely one of the best college running backs I've ever seen. He ran for 2,294 yards and 21 touchdowns in 19 games at 7.4 yards per carry before suffering the injury, showing a truly rare combination of strength, body density, and foot speed. Chubb's combination of brute strength, balance, and quickness was the kind of stuff you only saw from players like Jamal Lewis and Ricky Williams.

Chubb was good but not the same player in 2016, his first year back from the season-ending knee injury. This year, though, Chubb looked like he was at least 90 percent back, and with this selection I'm hoping he keeps improving now that he's more than two years removed from the injury. -Mario


3. Sony Michel, RB, Georgia (5-foot-11, 215 pounds)
DOB: 2/17/1995

There might not be another skill position player who improved their stock as much as Michel did this year. He was a good but not great back at Georgia his first three seasons, largely playing second fiddle to Nick Chubb. There's also a risk in returning for your senior season, particularly at such a grueling position that has a short shelf-life in the NFL. Well, his bet paid off as Michel ran for 1,227 yards (7.9 YPC) and 16 touchdowns. He gets an unfair label as more of a finesse back thanks to playing alongside a bruiser like Chubb, but Michel (5-foot-11, 215) is a well-built back in his own right, and the way he ran with a better pad level and finished runs as a senior was one of his biggest improvements in 2017. Michel also has natural pass-catching ability that'll keep him from being pigeon-holed as a two-down back at the next level. -John


4. Derrius Guice, RB, LSU* (5-foot-11, 218 pounds)
DOB: 6/21/1997 (21)

John and I certainly wouldn't criticize anyone for taking Guice second, but he falls this far after a year where he idled a bit as Chubb and Michel flexed their muscles. He played nicked up and dealt with a poor LSU passing game as he finished with just 1,251 yards (5.3 YPC) and 11 touchdowns this year, but in the two prior seasons he totaled 1,823 yards at an enormous 7.8 yards per carry. Whatever your reservations about Guice, there's no angle to criticize his pure running talent. He's something else when he has the ball.

There is some cause for concern about how he might produce as a pass catcher in the NFL, though. Setting the Edge's Justis Mosqueda compiled an insightful list of third- and fourth-down stats that reveal LSU basically didn't use Guice on those downs. Only time will tell the reason why LSU preferred fellow runner Darrel Williams in those situations. Was Guice bad at passing down tasks, or was Williams just exceptionally good? Was the question of quality uninvolved entirely, with LSU simply pulling Guice to limit what was otherwise a substantial workload? You'll notice Chubb is on the same list with a similar level of concern, but in his case it's more easily rationalized because of the presences of Michel, D'Andre Swift, and Elijah Holyfield. For what it's worth, Guice turned 38 targets over the last two years into 27 catches for 230 yards. Williams saw 37 targets for 28 catches and 368 yards. -Mario


5. Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama* (6-foot-1, 190 pounds)
DOB: 12/20/1994 (23)

Four picks in and my top receiver was still on the board, so Ridley was the obvious choice here for me. He's not flashy, he'll be old for a rookie, and he might not be the first receiver off the board most years. However, Ridley does have the traits and the skills to be -- at the very least -- a productive No.2 receiver early in his career at the next level. One could argue that Ridley's age implies he might be topped out athletically; my counter to that is that "finished product" is still going to be a good NFL wideout. He has some of the best speed at his position in the class, arguably the crispest routes in the class, and he's unique in terms of his ability to leverage the coverage to his advantage so that he can not only create separation, but also create serious yardage after the catch. -John


6. James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State (5-foot-11, 210 pounds)
DOB: 4/2/1996 (22)

Particularly after a dominant week at the Senior Bowl, the battle between Ridley and Washington remains unsettled, as much as Ridley might remain the favorite. Ridley vs. Washington is largely a question of film or metrics.

Washington doesn't look as athletically gifted as Ridley, who also boasts stronger pedigree as an elite SEC recruit. On the other side of the coin, Washington's production at Oklahoma State was of such astronomical heights that even Ridley's strong production is dwarfed in comparison. That Washington's superior production accumulated at more than a year younger than Ridley adds to the strength of his case. A four-year contributor at Oklahoma State, Washington concluded his career with 226 receptions for 4,472 yards (19.8 YPC) and 39 touchdowns in 51 games. That includes 2,929 yards and 23 touchdowns over the last two years on just 254 targets, giving Washington a YPT of 11.5 in an offense that averaged 9.6 YPA over the stretch.

The Ridley vs. Washington debate could largely get settled by the Combine showings of the duo. Ridley is expected to clean up there, so the bar would be high for Washington to close the gap. -Mario


7. Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA* (6-foot-4, 218 pounds)
DOB: 2/10/1997 (21)

Rosen is famed for both his prodigal passing talents as well as perceived personality quirks, but what tends to be lost in the wash of narratives is how good his fantasy ceiling could be due to his unique talent as a passer. More than most quarterbacks, Rosen projects to see the field and produce early as a passer. We often here buzzwords like "polished" and "pro-ready" this time of the year when talking about the upcoming class of quarterbacks, but both terms fit Rosen as well or better than any quarterback in the last few years. I foresee a Matt Ryan-level impact as a rookie from Rosen with a strong probability of outpacing Ryan's numbers thanks to the inflation in passing stats over the years. Devalued as the quarterback position might be in fantasy, I think Rosen is a good bet to eclipse 4,000 yards early in his career and then repeat that outcome – and more – from that point onward. -John


8. Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State (5-foot-11, 224 pounds)
DOB: 2/2/1996 (22)

Penny received underwhelming grades for his Senior Bowl practices, and he might struggle to break the 4.60-second threshold in the 40-yard dash, so he's something of an underdog in the race to stardom. But as always, when the game lights came on, Penny transformed into a dominant force, finishing the Senior Bowl with 64 yards on nine carries along with a 73-yard touchdown reception on a downfield sideline target.

As much as he seems to lack standout athleticism, Penny's borderline impossible production at San Diego State is difficult to explain in the absence of some standout talent, be it athleticism or a psychic-like ability to see the field and anticipate openings in the defense. For as much as Donnel Pumphrey earned his hype at San Diego State, Penny was clearly a level better, finishing his San Diego State career with 3,656 yards and 38 touchdowns on just 488 carries – good for 7.5 yards per carry. He was also an effective pass catcher in totaling 479 yards and six touchdowns on 42 catches. Here I am forgetting to mention that he also returned seven kickoffs for touchdowns on just 51 attempts over the last three years. Something is different about this guy. -Mario


9. Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M (5-foot-11, 200 pounds)
DOB: 11/18/1996 (21)

Built like a running back but possessing the hands of a top notch receiver, there's plenty to like about Kirk. Toss in the fact that he dominated SEC competition since he stepped on the field as a true freshman despite having to compete with future NFL receivers and you have an intriguing profile here. Kirk's on-field smarts and awareness might be the best among receivers in this class. He knows exactly how to create separation in any situation and at any point of the field, whether it's coming off the line, during his release in the route, or after the catch. The top tier of this year's receiving class is pretty fluid as to who fits where, but I'm confident that what Kirk brings to the table means he can succeed in any NFL offense, which made me feel more confident taking him over a Courtland Sutton type at this spot in the Devy draft. -John


10. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville* (6-foot-3, 211 pounds)
DOB: 1/7/1997 (21)

I have many more shots to fire over this one in the near future, but at the moment I must ask you to hear me now and believe me later: Lamar Jackson is a better version of Randall Cunningham. He's definitely a more dangerous runner than Cunningham, and probably a better passer too. Perhaps many NFL coaches are too addicted to I-formation orthodoxy to conceive a use for Jackson, but those coaches probably don't win too much and probably won't be around much longer. These skills will shine through even if he has to go the Dak Prescott route to do it. But I'm still betting Jackson goes in the first 40 picks. -Mario


11. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma (6-feet, 216 pounds)
DOB: 4/14/1995 (23)

Mayfield didn't necessarily make a huge jump with his play at Senior Bowl practices; he was the same sort of accurate, improvisational, and anticipatory quarterback we've all seen through the years. Where he did help himself was by dealing with the elephant in the room regarding his projection to the next level: the weigh-in. It was well-known that Oklahoma's 6-foot-1 listing of Mayfield was generous, but just how generous was it? Fortunately, Mayfield checked in a hair over 6-feet and his hands more than cracked the QB threshold, coming in at 9 ½ inches. There's little doubt now that Mayfield is trending in the direction of becoming a first-round selection, and that should be reflected in his Devy stock as well. -John


12. Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon (6-feet, 238 pounds)
DOB: 2/2/1996 (22)

Freeman's floor is that of a Jeremy Hill sort of career, but I would bet on something higher than that. Freeman is an absolute tank at nearly 240 pounds of easy weight, and he's likely a standout athlete for his size given what he did at Oregon. It's easy to forget, but Freeman arrived to Oregon largely as a freshman afterthought, because Oregon had two established standout runners in Byron Marshall and Thomas Tyner. Not long after he got to Eugene, the Ducks coaches realized Freeman was a different breed altogether and almost immediately installed him as the foundation of the offense, even moving Marshall to receiver to make room.

Freeman went on to run for 5,621 yards (5.9 YPC) and 60 touchdowns in 51 games, adding 79 receptions for 814 yards and four touchdowns. That he took on such a big workload is a concern, but Freeman's huge build might have absorbed the beating better than most runners would have. This is a workhorse running back who should provide big long-term upside in dynasty leagues even if he doesn't have a starting role as a rookie. But Marshall and Tyner would warn you not doubt him as far as that goes.

Although I expect Freeman to get drafted later than Ronald Jones, who John got at the next pick, I feel like Freeman better projects for workhorse volume in the NFL and thus is ranked higher for me in dynasty rankings at the moment. -Mario

Round 2

13. Ronald Jones, RB, USC* (6-feet, 200 pounds)
DOB: 8/3/1997 (21)

This was a tough spot because Courtland Sutton was on the board, but my skepticism regarding Sutton's workouts coupled with my confidence in Jones' future workout numbers led to me giving the USC product the nod. I don't think Jones is quite to the level of prospect that Dalvin Cook was coming out last year, but I see some similarities on tape, and Jones could be the premier big-play threat at running back in this draft if his blazing speed shows up in the 40-yard dash. In fact, Jones has a pretty good shot at being the fastest running back in that event this year. We'll see what happens come March, but I'm betting on Jones being a riser by the time the Combine wraps up. -John


14. Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU* (6-foot-4, 216 pounds)
DOB: 10/10/1995 (22)

There may be some concern over whether he can separate in the NFL – it's a fine line between an Alshon Jeffery and a Dwayne Jarrett – but so long as Sutton hits 4.60 seconds or better in the 40-yard dash he'll have a strong case to make as a potential first-round pick. There's some concern in the fact that Sutton saw his prominence in the SMU offense decline with the arrival of LSU transfer Trey Quinn, but I believe I speak for both John and myself when I say that both Sutton and Quinn turning out good is more likely than Sutton turning out bad. Sutton finished his superb SMU career with 195 receptions for 3,220 yards and 31 touchdowns in 40 games, including 2,331 yards and 22 touchdowns on 272 targets over the last two years (8.6 YPT) in an offense that averaged 7.4 YPA. Kenny Golladay provided a helpful blueprint last year.-Mario


15. Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma* (6-foot-5, 254 pounds)
DOB: N/A

Another interesting pivot point in the draft, I felt that the preceding picks had fallen in a way where taking the first tight end off the board made some sense. Andrews, who was recruited as a receiver coming out of high school, is more Evan Engram than O.J. Howard if we want to use a 2017 comparison. He's not your classic in-line blocker, but Andrews is big enough to where he won't be a liability in that facet the way Engram would be. Andrews is also a great athlete for his size with great pass-catching ability (10.9 YPT in 2017) with the kind of game that can give an NFL offense unique matchup advantages with a creative enough offensive coordinator. I see the intrigue with a Dallas Goedert type here, but I'll lean Andrews for now. -John


16. Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame* (6-foot-2, 225 pounds)
DOB: N/A

Adams is an interesting player because his production and pedigree strongly imply standout talent, but he might slip a bit in the draft due to his unconventional frame. Adams looks every bit of the 6-foot-2, 225 pounds he's listed at, and at that height he's taller than the ideal. Still, his frame is no different than Latavius Murray's, and Adams otherwise gives reason to believe he's significantly more talented than Murray. Adams finished his Notre Dame career with 3,201 yards (6.7 YPC) and 20 touchdowns in 37 games, displaying sufficient pass-catching skill with 41 receptions for 336 yards and two touchdowns. He was one of the last runners on the board with a workhorse frame. -Mario


17. D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland* (5-foot-11, 215 pounds)
DOB: N/A

The Maryland product continues to pick up steam as a potential top-five receiver in this class, and a postseason dive into his film has me on board with that sentiment. Moore was productive from his true freshman season onward, but his breakout junior year in 2017 is what has people sold on him as an NFL receiver. He led the Big Ten in both receptions (80) and yards (1,033) despite playing with third-string quarterback Max Bortenschlager for the bulk of the season. Moore lacks ideal height as he's listed at 5-11, which means he'll likely check in closer to 5-10 at the Combine. However, what he lacks in height he makes up for in strength (listed at 215 pounds), route running, and run after the catch ability. In my mind, Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk are two of the best after the catch guys in this draft, but Moore is right there with them. Getting a player of Moore's caliber at this stage of the draft felt like one of my better picks, especially considering he's one of the top candidates to see his stock go up as the draft approaches. -John

18. Nyheim Hines, RB, North Carolina State* (5-foot-9, 197 pounds)
DOB: N/A

Hines may be a better real-life player than a fantasy one, mostly because he doesn't profile as more than a change-of-pace back. There's the chance, though, that he sees a RB-WR hybrid role like the one Alvin Kamara held in New Orleans. Hines played a lot of receiver at N.C. State prior to Matt Dayes' graduation, and 2017 was his first as the lead runner. His 1,113 yards (5.6 YPC) and 12 touchdowns were sufficient, but don't hint at standout running ability. Hines is expected to post elite workout numbers, though, and if he shows burning athleticism with his pass-catching ability, he could prove a nice mismatch in the NFL and provide fantasy utility even if he never exceeds 150 or so carries in a season. -Mario


19. Sam Darnold, QB, USC* (6-foot-4, 220 pounds
DOB: 6/5/1997 (21)

Mario deftly sniped Hines right before this pick, so I pivoted to a quarterback in Sam Darnold who I never would have imagined getting at this spot had we done one of these mocks in August. If he was eligible, there's a chance Darnold would've been the No.1 overall pick last year with just 10 college starts to his name. Crazy how things change. Turnover issues that weren't apparent at all in 2016 became a major storyline in 2017, and as a USC quarterback with No.1 pick hype, the media magnifying glass did him no favors. His mechanics were already being picked apart by detractors this time last year, drawing the dreaded windup comps to Byron Leftwich or Tim Tebow. That windup didn't really get shortened up this year and I always have my doubts about a complete mechanical overhaul at this stage of development. Still, even if Darnold is a guy that has an unorthodox delivery at the NFL level, it's not like there haven't been successful quarterbacks with funky deliveries in the past. Darnold still has a ton working in his favor as a 6-foot-4, 220-pounder with quality athleticism, a big enough arm, and a flare for making the big play when his team needs it. I hate to be this guy, but one thing to look out for at the Combine will be how Darnold's hands check in. The fumble issues from this year have scouts concerned that his hands will come in at or under the usual 9 ⅛ inch threshold most teams use at quarterback. If he checks that box, Darnold's stock should start to trend back in the right direction. -John


20. Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame* (6-foot-5, 203 pounds)
DOB: N/A

As a former blue chip recruit with... interesting genetics and big-time sophomore year production, St. Brown was a consensus top-five dynasty asset in college football prior to his disappointing 2017 season. After posting 58 receptions for 961 yards and nine touchdowns on 93 targets in his true sophomore season, St. Brown crashed back to earth with just 33 catches for 515 yards and four touchdowns on 77 targets in 2017. He dealt with injury and poor quarterback play in 2017, but did that fully explain the decline? St. Brown played on a dreadfully skinny frame, and his Combine performance is of the utmost importance. He would ideally check in around 6-foot-4, 210 pounds while maintaining sufficient athletic testing, earning a Tyrell Williams comparison in the process. But if he shows up skinny and doesn't burn up the track, a freefall could be in order. -Mario


21. Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State (6-foot-4, 260 pounds)
DOB: N/A

It's unfortunate that Goedert pulled a hamstring the first day of Senior Bowl practices as he was easily one of the more intriguing names on either roster. Goedert is this year's Adam Shaheen in the sense that he went to an FCS school, but looked like a man amongst boys on film. He's considered by some to be the top tight end in this year's class, having caught 164 passes for 2,404 yards and 18 scores over the last two years. The top of this year's tight end class is still sorting itself out, and it's not Goedert's fault that he pulled a hamstring during a practice for an exhibition game, but it feels like a bit of a missed opportunity to lock himself into top of the position category. He'll have a chance to rectify that at the combine, however. -John


22. Jaylen Samuels, RB/TE, North Carolina State (6-feet, 223 pounds)
DOB: N/A

Here's a weird one. Samuels was always an interesting prospect, but until the Senior Bowl he mostly seemed like a novel long shot – someone you hoped would succeed but more so expected to fade into the crowd of other former college stars whose games didn't translate to the NFL. After the Senior Bowl, he appears to be one of the most in-demand skill position players in the draft. Listed at tight end but a frequent ballcarrier in college, the Senior Bowl listed him at running back, and by all accounts he thrived. Samuels probably won't test very well at the Combine by running back standards, but his hands and route-running skills have made him a menace to cover out of the slot or backfield, and he's skilled enough as a runner to do additional damage on the ground. This guy would have been a Hall of Fame fullback if he had played in the Larry Centers era, and his skills may be significant enough to convince the NFL to carve out a similar function for him in 2018. Samuels is particularly intriguing for fantasy purposes because there's a chance he gets significant rushing volume in the NFL even as he carries a tight end classification. He finished his North Carolina State career with 1,107 yards and 28 touchdowns rushing (6.1 YPC) along with 201 receptions for 1,851 yards and 19 touchdowns. -Mario


23. Marcell Ateman, WR, Oklahoma State (6-foot-4, 216 pounds)
DOB: 9/16/1994 (23)

The Combine will be especially important for Ateman because every other facet of his game suggests he's an NFL receiver. He's 6-foot-4, 216 with a big catch radius and impressive body control. The Combine event of most interest, in my eyes, will be his 40-yard dash. We're not looking for him to burn a time in the 4.4s or even the low 4.5s, but as long as Ateman checks in under 4.6, he'll have solidified his case as a mid-round target. -John


24. Dante Pettis, WR, Washington (6-foot-1, 195 pounds)
DOB: 10/23/1995 (22)

You generally don't want to count on special teams production when projecting a player's fantasy utility, and the same principle applies to Pettis, tempting as it is to dream on after Pettis returned nine punts for touchdowns in 52 career games. Where that punt return production does matter is with how it might affect Pettis' draft projection. He looks like a game-changing, once-a-decade sort of punt returning threat, and that fact could propel his stock all the way up to the second round. Opportunity correlates to draft slot, and if Pettis goes in the second day he's going to be closer to the field than the more polished pass-catcher who falls to the fifth round. Pettis could have a Ted Ginn-like fit at the next level, though he's not as fast. -Mario

Round 3

25. Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado State (6-foot-1, 198 pounds)
DOB: 3/4/1996

John made this selection, but I (Mario) will write the comment here. Gallup was the second name I was debating when I made the Pettis selection one pick ago, so I liked John's selection of Gallup at this spot. Gallup is actually the perfect example of that more polished fifth-round receiver from the Pettis writeup – Gallup's level of competition and suspected lack of standout athleticism might push him into the draft's third day despite a monstrously productive career at Colorado State the last two years. Gallup is a quick and smooth route runner who looks like a safe fit in the slot even if he doesn't do well at the Combine, and he has the hands – both in the sense of catching and swatting away defenders who try to grab him – to prove more effective on the jumpball than you would normally expect of a player his size. After catching 176 passes for 2,685 yards and 21 touchdowns on 286 targets over the last two years (9.4 YPT), Gallup could catapult into the second round if he makes a strong Combine showing.


26. Tre'Quan Smith, WR, UCF* (6-foot-2, 202 pounds)
DOB: N/A

Although we took him third out of the group, it's easy to make the case that Smith should go ahead of both Pettis and Gallup. Smith's age-adjusted production at UCF is among the best in the class, as he totaled 52 catches for 724 yards and four touchdowns even as a true freshman. Over the last two years he went on to total 116 receptions for 2,024 yards and 18 touchdowns on 195 targets (10.4 YPT), and a strong showing at the Combine could make him a consensus Day 2 talent. -Mario


27. Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn* (6-feet, 212 pounds)
DOB: 6/30/1997 (21)

The public might call John's selection of Johnson here the steal of the draft, as some seem to hold him in a regard similar to Chubb and Michel. I'll again take the liberty of speaking both for John and myself when I say we don't think he's anywhere near those two, and is a mid-round target generally. Johnson was a very good player for Auburn and has a versatile pass-catching skill set to earn snaps early in his career, but his rushing efficiency is a slight red flag. You'd like to see a running back average well over five yards per carry in college, even in the SEC, yet Johnson didn't do it in any of his three seasons, finishing instead with averages of 4.0, 4.9, and 4.9 yards per carry in those years. He can reassert his case with a strong Combine, but the production drags his grade for now. -Mario


28. Adam Breneman, TE, Massachusetts (6-foot-4, 241)
DOB: 3/31/1995 (23)

I probably screwed up this pick. Breneman is a skilled receiver with great production and pedigree, but he checked in an inch shorter and 15 pounds lighter than his listed height/weight, which will be a lot for him to overcome given his history of knee issues. I thought he could push for Day 2 at 6-foot-5, 255 pounds, but 6-foot-4, 241 is a tougher sell. Still, he's worth a pick late in most rookie drafts due to his pass-catching abilities – he caught 134 passes for 1,572 yards and 12 touchdowns on 204 targets over the last two years (7.7 YPT). But I'd put subsequent tight end picks Mike Gesicki and Hayden Hurst over Breneman for the time being. -Mario


29. Javon Wims, WR, Georgia (6-foot-4, 215 pounds)
DOB: N/A

Wims is one of the more interesting stories in this year's class: He played just one year of high school football in a Wing-T offense, which netted him a scholarship to a Division III school before he ultimately enrolled at Hinds Community College for the 2015 season. You can read more on his background here. Wims entered this season at Georgia with little buzz, as he was considered "the tall guy" but most attention was paid to Terry Godwin and Riley Ridley until Wims' performance commanded respect. The rangy receiver figured out how to use his frame to his advantage and he turned into a weapon on the outside and in the red zone, reeling in 45 of 72 targets for 720 yards and seven scores. Circling back to Wims' background; his unique route of getting to this point means one can't simply write him off for being a non-entity as a recruit coming of high school or for having a breakout at an advanced age compared to some of the more prominent receivers in this class. Wims very much looks the part of an NFL receiver and he continues to add polish to his game as he gains more experience. The strong hands and red zone ability will play immediately at the next level, but he started to become a more reliable target with a versatile route tree between the 20s. -John


30. Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis (5-foot-11, 190 pounds)
DOB: N/A

I'm concerned about Miller's health (foot), age (23-24), and athleticism (former walk-on despite playing at a Memphis high school), but his superb film and production make him a worthwhile pick at this spot, I think. For as much as he may be limited athletically, it seems like Miller must have a special skill set in order to put up such bonkers numbers over the last two years. In his last 26 games, Miller totaled 191 receptions for 2,896 yards and 32 touchdowns on 288 targets (10.1 YPT). That's pretty difficult to do unless you have some NFL talent going for you. -Mario


31. Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina* (6-foot-5, 250 pounds)
DOB: 8/24/1993 (25)

If not for his age, Hurst would have significantly more Devy buzz heading into the draft. However, Hurst can be viewed as a tight end that you won't need to wait on to start producing if he lands in the right spot come April. The ex-baseball prospect turned tight end will turn 25 before his first regular season game and he has just two full seasons of collegiate production with which to convince NFL teams he's worthy of a draft pick. On the other hand, Hurst checks the box as far as size and physicality for a tight end, and his film shows some pretty advanced elements to his game as a pass-catcher. The pecking order among the top tight end prospects is still fluid at this point and seems to be a bit of a matter of preference or scheme among teams, so there's a good chance Hurst goes earlier than some might expect if he shows off at the Combine. -John


32. Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State (6-foot-5, 242 pounds)
DOB: 10/3/1995 (22)

Gesicki is a much bigger name in terms of real-life draft stock than most of the other players in this range, so I guess I went with him here largely because he's an expected Day 2 pick whereas the runners and receivers still on the board generally look like Day 3 players. Gesicki came in lighter than expected at the Senior Bowl but he's shown hints of standout athleticism on tape that make him a candidate to generate more momentum at the Combine. -Mario


33. Daurice Fountain, WR, Northern Iowa (6-foot-1, 210 pounds)
DOB: N/A

John got one of the more high-upside sleepers at receiver with this pick, the offensive MVP of the Shrine Game and one of the presumed better athletes at receiver in this class. Fountain's athleticism seems to exceed what you'd expect of an FCS player, and his production at Northern Iowa otherwise implies a standout skill set. Fountain could be the Chad Williams of this draft. -Mario


34. Ray Lawry, RB, Old Dominion (5-foot-10, 203 pounds)
DOB: N/A

Lawry is technically something of a long shot given his modest pedigree as an Old Dominion runner, but he's one of my favorite players in the draft in terms of film and production. If he holds his own at his pro day (or, ideally, Combine) workouts, I'll be buying. Lawry is a dense runner with fast feet and standout vision, and he's been one of the most productive recent runners in college football. His durability is a concern after playing through hamstring issues on and off for the last three years, but that he otherwise ran for 4,080 yards (6.2 YPC) and 45 touchdowns in 43 career games is impressive. His 60 receptions for 496 yards and three touchdowns implies adeptness as a pass catcher, too. I think he might be another Ahmad Bradshaw. -Mario


35. Jaleel Scott, WR, New Mexico State (6-foot-5, 216 pounds)
DOB: N/A

John took one of the more interesting mid-to-late round receivers here, as Scott's giant frame makes him a better bet for touchdown upside than most prospects at his position. That he got a Senior Bowl invitation bodes well for Scott's chances of holding his own at the Combine, and he's coming off a productive season where he totaled 76 catches for 1,079 yards and nine touchdowns on 124 targets. His easiest comparison at the moment might be Brandon Coleman, but Scott could turn out to be a better athlete. -Mario


36. D.J. Chark, WR, LSU (6-foot-3, 196 pounds)
DOB: 9/23/1996 (21)

As mentioned in the preface, I think John and I would both take Chark a fair amount earlier than this if we had done the draft after the Senior Bowl. Chark will be a definite riser after finishing the game with five catches for 160 yards and a touchdown. He was an intriguing enough of a prospect even before that showing, and after that performance he seems like a good bet to land in the draft's second day. What's especially novel about Chark is he's a tall receiver with standout returner ability. That he returned two punts for touchdowns this year implies he has better open-field running ability than most receivers his height. -Mario

Honorable mentions

Auden Tate, WR, Florida State (6-foot-5, 225 pounds)
DOB: 2/3/1997 (21)

I've been agonizingly back and forth on Tate. On the one hand he's got the blue-chip recruit background, he's 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds, and he showed to be an absolute red zone terror with 10 scores this year despite shaky quarterback play. He's also young as someone who'll be a 21-year-old rookie, which means he still has room to grow in terms of learning the nuance that comes with being an NFL receiver. On the other hand, Tate does not look fast on film. In fact, it's worth wondering whether he'll be able to run under 4.6 in the 40-yard dash. Mike Williams seems to be the obvious comparison, and while that's probably not fair, it's something that could be working against him. No, Tate doesn't have the same health concerns Williams did, nor will he have the lofty expectations that come with being a top-10 pick, but he also has trouble separating from defenders. My worry is that Tate is a one-trick pony at the next level, but his one trick is pretty impressive, and we always need more touchdowns. -John

Mark Walton, RB, Miami (FL) (5-foot-9, 205 pounds)
DOB: N/A

In hindsight, I probably should have taken Walton over Lawry. Walton doesn't project as anything standout at the moment, but he's a former blue chip recruit who has shown some impressive tackle-breaking ability on tape at various points. If he tests well enough at the Combine, he could easily prove a better NFL player than a college one. He finished his Miami career with 2,006 yards (5.1 YPC) and 26 touchdowns in 31 games, adding 56 receptions for 624 yards and two touchdowns. That rushing average is normally a red flag – I want to see it at at least 5.5, especially if we're talking about someone outside the SEC – but Walton's YPC is largely dragged down by the fact that a disproportionate amount of his early work at Miami was as a red-zone specialist while Joseph Yearby worked between the 20s. If his prospect pedigree shines through, Walton could make some noise before the draft. -Mario


Chase Edmonds, RB, Fordham (5-foot-8, 203 pounds)
DOB: N/A

Admittedly, I got a bit swept up in the hype that Edmonds stirred up during the East-West Shrine Game practices, but after taking a closer look, I'm convinced he can be a contributor at the next level. Yes, he's small -- listed at 5-foot-8, 203 -- and yes, he's a small-school product coming from Fordham at the FCS level. The small school angle doesn't bother me much after watching the kind of back he is on film. He's quick, he's decisive, he gets up to speed almost immediately, and he doesn't shy from contact. Edmonds is less a Tarik Cohen if you're quick to make the small-back/small-school comp and more a Ronnie Hillman type, but his denser build and better lateral ability gives him a higher ceiling than Hillman. There's obviously a few breaks that need to happen between now and fantasy draft season before he's officially on the radar, but considering the dropoff in running back talent after, say, Darrel Williams out of LSU, why not take a gamble on the type of upside Edmonds brings? -John

Cedrick Wilson, WR, Boise State (6-foot-2, 194 pounds)
DOB: N/A

The son of the former NFL receiver of the same name, Wilson is less the slot wideout and special teams player his father was at 5-foot-10, 183 pounds, and theoretically more along the lines of Marvin Jones as a downfield and sideline playmaker. Wilson was highly productive after transferring to Boise State from the JUCO ranks, and in his two seasons in Idaho he constantly killed defenses downfield. In 27 games he totaled 2,640 yards and 18 touchdowns on 235 targets (11.2 YPT), and his NFL genetics only help his odds of proving his pedigree before the draft. Wilson could be the Zay Jones of this draft as far as his frame and general round projection if he holds his own at the Combine. -Mario


Jordan Lasley, WR, UCLA* (6-foot-1, 210 pounds)
DOB: N/A

Lasley gets lost in the wash in what has turned out to be a deep receiving class, but he deserves a much closer look and certainly deserves more buzz than he's getting at present. Had he qualified, Lasley would have led the nation in receiving yards per game in 2017 with 140. Unfortunately, Lasley missed four games, which took him out of the running for that honor. Three of his missed games came from a suspension, which is something that'll be dissected by NFL front offices and likely make teams think twice about spending a pick on him. To his credit, Lasley did what he had to do to get back on the field and absolutely dominated down the stretch after senior wideout Darren Andrews went down with a season-ending knee injury. Lasley averaged 9.25 catches for 180 yards over his last four outings and added six touchdowns in that span. It's easy to say his production is inflated by the play of Josh Rosen, but Lasley still managed eight grabs for 128 yards in his bowl game with the inexperienced Devon Modster at quarterback. Lasley will have a chance to start generating some buzz at the combine, and I'm betting that he will as a receiver with good size (6-foot-1, 210), smooth route running, and good hands. -John

Trey Quinn, WR, SMU (6-feet, 202 pounds)
DOB: 12/7/1995 (22)

If you like Courtland Sutton then you have to give Quinn some credit, too. Upon transferring from LSU Quinn technically pushed aside Sutton as the team's lead receiver, finishing with 114 receptions for 1,236 yards and 13 touchdowns on 159 targets. Quinn's skill set is in the slot rather than outside and downfield like Sutton, but that Quinn led the team even in the receiving touchdown category means he really might be a lot better than people have picked up on. His production, tape, and LSU recruit background mean Quinn might even prove more athletic and high-upside than most of the hyped wideouts in this class. Slot receivers have subtly become the foundation of the best passing offenses in the NFL – all of the Patriots, Saints, and Rams largely lean on their slot targets for their bread and butter while using pick concepts for the pursuit of bigger plays – and Quinn's slot projection is absolutely as good or better than some of the players holding NFL roles at the position. Don't be surprised if Quinn is a Day 2 draft pick and a Day 1 starter in three-wide sets. -Mario

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ABOUT THE AUTHORS
John McKechnie
John is the 2016 and 2021 FSWA College Writer of the Year winner. He is a Maryland native and graduate of the University of Georgia. He's been writing for RotoWire since 2014.
Mario Puig
Mario is a Senior Writer at RotoWire who primarily writes and projects for the NFL and college football sections.
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