Job Battles: Blount Losing Ground

Now in the thick of the preseason, we shan't go long without some sort of drama, and this past week provided at least a few significant developments.

Peyton Barber vs. Ronald Jones, RB, TB

Groooooooooan. This entire team seems off to me so I don't want to take it for granted that there would have been some sort of value to extract from the Tampa backfield this year, but it's a turn for the worse that Ronald Jones has generally disappointed in training camp, leading head coach Dirk Koetter to outright declare Peyton Barber the team's starting running back Monday.

There are a couple ways to spin this positively for Jones. One is that Koetter might be coyly leaning on misleading semantics to not answer the question. Jeremy Hill was technically a starter last year, for instance, yet basically did not play. Granted, that was a patently absurd situation that likely won't recur anywhere else, but maybe Koetter was being cute and answered the question of "Who will start?" rather than "Who will you use more?"

The second way is the premise that, while Barber may begin the year as starter, he will quickly prove inferior to Jones, forcing Koetter to call a switch, making Barber's reign a brief one. Seems a little optimistic to me, but if it's true then Jones' owners could stand to profit that much further by the ADP drop Jones figures to see from this point. Prior to now Jones would generally cost you a late fifth-round pick or early sixth.

I'm not a Barber fan per se, though I will buy him if he keeps falling past the 12th round. Jones I'm pretty much fading at this point. I think there's talent there, but if Buccaneers coaches are more drawn toward Barber through a couple weeks of camp, then that's a sign that Jones' development time might not match the schedule of those selecting him in redraft leagues.

It's concerning that Jones' struggles have specifically pertained to passing situation work, both blocking and pass catching. Barber is the de facto 'grinder' back of the offense, which a coach as primitive as Koetter would likely designate as the short-yardage runner at the outset. Jones was supposed to hit value largely through a stranglehold on negative game script snaps. In other words, the belief was that the Buccaneers would need a fast pass-catching threat to catch up, moving the plodding Barber to the sidelines, but it appears the opposite is more likely true for now. With a post-July MFL10 ADP of 61.63, I have no interest in Jones. Barber at 164.61 seems far preferable to me, underwhelming as he might be.

LeGarrette Blount vs. Kerryon Johnson, RB, DET

As far as sensitive fans go, the Kerryon Johnson Defense Squad has somehow grown to outrank the Knights McKinnon, providing me with a new bane of existence as September approaches.

Johnson finished his preseason debut against the Raiders on Friday with 34 yards on seven carries and four receptions for 33 yards on five targets, but I did not bring sufficient praise offerings after the fact, and for that I must pay. My betters have made it clear: this competition is over, Johnson has vanquished LeGarrette Blount in a most decisive fashion.

Johnson did a good job in that preseason game against the Raiders backups and no one can take that away from him. But I can't care about preseason production, and what I think about Johnson will not change for the better or worse based on what happens during it. I never intended to dispute what Johnson's proponents point out; he's a smart, coachable back who's capable if not adept in passing situations, and a generally polished runner otherwise. My doubt with Johnson pertains to whether he has the natural running talent to project as an enduring starter in the NFL.

With that said, Johnson is clearly on the upswing, and presumably at Blount's expense. Assuming that duo doesn't displace Theo Riddick from his specialist role, then the tasks demanded of Johnson and Blount would narrow to more of a rushing-specific workload, because most of the pass-specific work occurs in hurry-up situations or long down and distances. When you isolate the rushing projection variable for Johnson, I think his application remains problematic, if only because of Blount's presence.

You might not think highly of Blount, but he was at least competent for the Eagles last year, and when coaches do crony signings like Matt Patricia did with Blount it rarely results in the player getting cast aside completely. Within the context of splitting up a pie that Riddick already took a stab at, Johnson is working with a slim margin of error for his ever-increasing ADP. That's particularly true if the Lions deal with negative game scripts this year, which they very well could with an unproven first-year coach in a tough division.

The hype for Johnson only mounts as time passes, and if you want him you'll have to strike earlier than you would have even a few weeks ago. It appears his floor is generally around the seventh round at this point, and he sometimes goes as high as the fifth. Blount is stuck around the 13th round. I can't imagine the math that justifies that gulf.

Adam Shaheen vs. Trey Burton, TE, CHI

Trey Burton became a trendy fantasy breakout target at tight end the second he signed with Chicago, and his stock only ascended when coach Matt Nagy compared Burton's expected usage to that of Travis Kelce in Kansas City. After a big preseason game for Adam Shaheen (three catches for 53 yards), those previously mentioned developments washed away in an instant for some fantasy football observers. Is it actually reasonable to assume that Burton needs Shaheen on the bench in order to return fantasy value? It's not.

Whatever your evaluation of Burton, it might not be the best idea to presume his demise based on Shaheen performing well. Shaheen was always expected to perform well. He was one of the best tight end prospects in years when the Bears selected him in the second round of the 2017 draft. Nagy knew who he was, yet the Bears spent aggressively to recruit Burton all the same. This is because they are very different players whose tasks don't often overlap.

Shaheen is an in-line freak at 6-foot-6, 278 pounds. Burton is a former quarterback and wide receiver at 6-foot-2 and about 230 pounds. Nagy did not watch that preseason game and go, "Ah! Zoinks! My brilliant plan, gone in an instant! I almost started a converted wide receiver at an in-line position, but I realize now it is in fact the 278-pounder who might project better in that role."

Remember why everyone got psyched about Nagy's Kelce comparison in the first place? It's because Kelce often split out wide instead of playing in line. The guy who played actual TE when Kelce was running routes from the slot? That's Shaheen. Now, it is fair to find concern over Shaheen proving a target share complication, because he's certainly a much more talented receiver than his Kansas City counterpart Demetrius Harris. This is somewhat misguided when applied specifically to Burton, though, because this framing would apply to Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, and Tarik Cohen as much as Burton. Indeed, Miller and Cohen, as presumed frequent slot targets, are a more sensible source of anxiety for Burton owners than Shaheen.

My guess is that Burton, like all Chicago pass catchers, will be inconsistent week to week due to the team's pile of riches in the passing game. I think all of Robinson, Miller, Cohen, Burton, Shaheen, and Taylor Gabriel are good players, and none of them will own the spotlight. My expectation is that both Burton and Shaheen will return value before neither of them does. With his ADP settled post-hype, Burton will still sometimes go later than Jordan Reed, and I'm taking Burton 10 times out of 10 in that hypothetical. If Burton around the turn of the eighth and ninth round is a concerning price tag for you then make sure to buy a tight end before that point, because Kyle Rudolph will usually go a full round earlier.

As far as Shaheen goes, it's still difficult to advise investment in him in leagues with fewer than 14 teams. I wouldn't argue against anyone selecting him late in bigger leagues or formats with deep benches, because the talent really is there and sometimes injury opens up opportunity. For now, though, I think to buy Shaheen would be to speculate on injuries to Chicago pass catchers. It could happen, and Shaheen would thrive if it did.

Jesse James vs. Vance McDonald, TE, PIT

Jesse James was the incumbent starter at tight end for Pittsburgh, yet it was presumed for the entirety of the offseason that it would be the more gifted Vance McDonald, acquired by in-season trade from San Francisco last year, who took over the starting role in 2018. Injury issues for McDonald – an ongoing concern with him – appear a serious threat to knock him out of that competition, however.

McDonald left practice July 29 with a foot injury and he's been on the shelf since. James and his career sub-6.0 YPT inspire no one, but at least he's available. McDonald has yet to play 16 games in his five-year career, making whatever upside he has feel increasingly out of reach.

That upside should have been enormous – McDonald is a big tight end at 6-foot-4, 267 pounds, yet he often played slot receiver at Rice due to his 4.69 speed. Throughout both his Rice and NFL careers he's shown flashes of reaching great heights, only to eventually stumble again due to drops or injury troubles. By averaging 7.8 yards per target in his Pittsburgh audition last year, McDonald made it tempting to dream on what he'd be capable of in a Ben Roethlisberger offense with a full offseason to prepare.

McDonald has no current timetable for return, so it's difficult to advise fantasy owners to invest in or otherwise rely on him to any considerable extent. Once an understandably trendy upside target around Round 14, it might be reasonable to pass on McDonald for late-round tight ends like Austin Hooper, Ben Watson, Jake Butt, and Luke Willson, at least until something concrete surfaces about his return from the foot injury.