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Open: 55.5 O/U, NE -7.5
Live: 50 O/U, NE -10.5

The movement on this line is strange. You would of course make the Patriots the favorite for a home matchup like this, and 7.5 seems reasonable enough. For the over/under to drop five points and then the spread for New England to go up three points is a rather violent adjustment, though, and I struggle to guess what precipitated it. The presumed absence of T.Y. Hilton was always just that – presumed all along – so you'd have to think that was factored into the opening line. The 4.5-point drop might be related to Rob Gronkowski's ankle injury, though tentative reporting expects Gronk to play.

We in any case have a Patriots offense on the upswing, and playing at a home setting where they traditionally experience few complications. An absent or limited Gronk would normally strain that trend, but this Colts defense is so beat up the Patriots obviously

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