Thursday

New England vs. Indianapolis

Open: 55.5 O/U, NE -7.5
Live: 50 O/U, NE -10.5

The movement on this line is strange. You would of course make the Patriots the favorite for a home matchup like this, and 7.5 seems reasonable enough. For the over/under to drop five points and then the spread for New England to go up three points is a rather violent adjustment, though, and I struggle to guess what precipitated it. The presumed absence of T.Y. Hilton was always just that – presumed all along – so you'd have to think that was factored into the opening line. The 4.5-point drop might be related to Rob Gronkowski's ankle injury, though tentative reporting expects Gronk to play.

We in any case have a Patriots offense on the upswing, and playing at a home setting where they traditionally experience few complications. An absent or limited Gronk would normally strain that trend, but this Colts defense is so beat up the Patriots obviously don't need him. Emerging star linebacker Darius Leonard and corner Nate Hairston are highly questionable, while corners Quincy Wilson and Kenny Moore were declared out. With a defense that battered and the Foxboro effect in play, Tom Brady should roll regardless of Gronkowski's outcome.

It will be interesting to see what role is in store for Julian Edelman as he makes his return from a four-game suspension and ACL tear. Phillip Dorsett has more traction than he did last year and the arrival of Josh