This article is part of our Survivor series.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLTS | Bills | 28.30% | 300 | 75.00 | 7.08 |
| Rams | 49ERS | 20.30% | 450 | 81.82 | 3.69 |
| FALCONS | Giants | 14.30% | 240 | 70.59 | 4.21 |
| Chargers | Titans*** | 14.00% | 275 | 73.33 | 3.73 |
| CHIEFS | Bengals | 9.50% | 240 | 70.59 | 2.79 |
| EAGLES | Panthers | 3.10% | 205 | 67.21 | 1.02 |
| JAGUARS | Texans | 2.60% | 200 | 66.67 | 0.87 |
| BUCCANEERS | Browns | 2.00% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.78 |
| Broncos | CARDINALS | 2.00% | 115 | 53.49 | 0.93 |
| Patriots | BEARS | 1.20% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.44 |
| Vikings | JETS | 1.00% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.41 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London
My Picks
1. Los Angeles Rams
They're the biggest favorites on the board, and they're only 20 percent owned, largely because they've been used by a lot of people already. The main concerns are that this is their third straight road game and the 49ers played well at Lambeau Field last week. Still, on a weak slate, this is the best option on the board. I give the Rams a 78 percent chance to win this game.
2. Los Angeles Chargers
The London game is a wild card, especially with the Chargers playing on the road last week too, but they've looked dominant on both sides of the ball the last two games, and the Titans offense has been terrible. I give the Chargers a
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLTS | Bills | 28.30% | 300 | 75.00 | 7.08 |
| Rams | 49ERS | 20.30% | 450 | 81.82 | 3.69 |
| FALCONS | Giants | 14.30% | 240 | 70.59 | 4.21 |
| Chargers | Titans*** | 14.00% | 275 | 73.33 | 3.73 |
| CHIEFS | Bengals | 9.50% | 240 | 70.59 | 2.79 |
| EAGLES | Panthers | 3.10% | 205 | 67.21 | 1.02 |
| JAGUARS | Texans | 2.60% | 200 | 66.67 | 0.87 |
| BUCCANEERS | Browns | 2.00% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.78 |
| Broncos | CARDINALS | 2.00% | 115 | 53.49 | 0.93 |
| Patriots | BEARS | 1.20% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.44 |
| Vikings | JETS | 1.00% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.41 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London
My Picks
1. Los Angeles Rams
They're the biggest favorites on the board, and they're only 20 percent owned, largely because they've been used by a lot of people already. The main concerns are that this is their third straight road game and the 49ers played well at Lambeau Field last week. Still, on a weak slate, this is the best option on the board. I give the Rams a 78 percent chance to win this game.
2. Los Angeles Chargers
The London game is a wild card, especially with the Chargers playing on the road last week too, but they've looked dominant on both sides of the ball the last two games, and the Titans offense has been terrible. I give the Chargers a 73 percent chance to win this game.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have looked bad the last two weeks, but they draw an ideal matchup at home against the Texans, a team that can't pass protect and relies mostly on production from its outside receivers. I give the Jaguars a 73 percent chance to win this game.
4. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts get a Bills team starting Derek Anderson, plucked from the street, at quarterback, but the Bills play sound defense, and Indianapolis might still be missing its top offensive weapon, T.Y. Hilton. Moreover, the Colts are the highest owned team on the board at 28 percent. I give them a 73 percent chance to win this game.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are unstoppable on offense and playing at home against a banged-up Bengals defense, but the Bengals should also move the ball against a below-average unit themselves. I give the Chiefs a 70 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Atlanta Falcons - The Falcons are better at home, and the Giants have a bad QB and weak offensive line, but anyone can score points against Atlanta's weak defense, and the Giants have been tougher on the road, beating the Texans and nearly beating the Panthers.
Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles looked good last week, but the Panthers are an above average team that has a puncher's chance against anyone when Cam Newton plays well.
