DraftKings NFL: Week 10 Picks
DraftKings NFL: Week 10 Picks

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

QUARTERBACK

CASH

Ryan Fitzpatrick, TB vs. WAS ($5,900) - FitzMagic has hit value of 4.4x or greater in five of six games mainly because his passing attempts are so high as the Bucs defense is so bad. While the Redskins typically play slow, they have allowed quarterbacks to hit at least 3.4x value in five consecutive games. This all adds up to a nice bankable floor that allows you to spend up at the running back spot, which is optimal for cash lineup construction.

GPP

Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. ATL ($5,400) - When I look for a GPP QB, it has to be a low ownership projection where the matchup dictates that the player could hit at least 5.0x value or greater. I think we get that with Mayfield as the Falcons have allowed quarterbacks to hit for at least 3.9x value in six of the last seven games. Also, they have allowed four of those to be at least 4.6x value. I like the setup for the Browns at home as a small underdog with a high total (51) and for Mayfield to get at least 25 points and hit close to 5x needed as a very low ownership (less than 5 percent).

RUNNING BACK

CASH

Kareem Hunt, KC vs ARI ($8,500) - I really hate recommending the clear chalk play of the week, but it comes down to Hunt or Gurley and I am looking to save $900. The matchup is great as the Cardinals run defense has allowed eight running backs to hit at least 3x value, but also with the Chiefs installed as a -16.5 point favorite at home. The game script should call for a huge workload for Hunt.

Duke Johnson, CLE vs. ATL ($4,700) -
We know the narrative: "Pass catching running backs smash against the Falcons defense." Enter Duke Johnson at sub $5,000, which is the perfect price for a cash game running back in the flex spot. Johnson exploded last week for 29.6 points, so clearly the new coaching regime realizes that getting him involved in the offense is a good thing.

GPP

Mike Davis, SEA at LAR ($4,300) - If you read this article last week, you know I had Davis as a play, but it was contingent on Chris Carson being out. Well, Carson played and I put in the notes to come off Davis, which turned out to be bad advice as Davis went for 17.7 points and 5.2x value. His salary did jump from $3,400, but he still has the floor to hit the tournament game target of 4.0x (I target a higher multiplier with cheaper players), so we need at least 16 points. The Seahawks are 10-point underdogs, which is a little scary, but they did hang with the Rams at home a few weeks ago, and I think they can do that again. The Rams' run defense has allowed five running backs to hit at least 3.6x value in the last five weeks, including Davis and Carson in Week 5.

Aaron Jones, GB vs. MIA ($5,000) -
I will admit I don't feel great about touting Jones, but if you look at the matchup and his recent workload, there is a narrative and path to hitting for at least 4.0x value. Jones has 12 and 14 carries the last two games along with six targets. Add in the constant injuries to the Packers receivers and you at least have some volume to play with. Jones averages more than six yards per carry and has seen his snap count increase to 61 and 58 percent the last two weeks. The matchup against Miami is also a huge factor as the Dolphins have allowed the most running backs to hit for at least 3.0x value (12), 4.0x value (6), and 5.0x value (3).

WIDE RECEIVER

CASH

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB vs. MIA ($5,000) - I usually try to find three wide receivers in the $5,000-$6,000 range for cash games with a focus on high-scoring games. MVS has picked up where Geronimo Allison left off in producing 3.4x value or greater in three of the last four games. He looks like the clear WR2 in the Packers offense.

Tyler Boyd, CIN vs. NO ($7,500) -
Cash games and wide receivers are like oil and water, they just don't mix. There is only one wide receiver who has hit value in more than five games (Adam Thielen), so the rest of the group is so matchup/price driven. Without A.J. Green, the Bengals are going to have to throw a ton, and the game is in Cincinnati. Boyd should get a ton of targets and he has hit for 3.0x value or greater in five of eight games, while the Saints have allowed wide receivers to hit 3.0x or greater a league high 13 times.

GPP

Jarvis Landry, CLE vs. ATL ($6,200) - Much like how I went with Baker Mayfield in the GPP QB section, I'm looking at pairing him with Jarvis Landry. The Falcons are tied with the Saints for allowing the most wide receivers to hit at least 3.0x value (13). Landry has only hit value in three of nine games this year, but the game is at home, with a very high total for a Browns game, against the worst secondary in football. GPP plays are all about taking for the highest potential and a 25-30 point game is within reach, but a 10 point one is also.

Julio Jones, ATL at CLE ($8,300) -
Jones comes in with a projected ownership of less than 10 percent. Normally I fade JJ and have been for several years. But with the low ownership and high total, I'm willing to take a shot in tournaments this week. Jones has posted at least 21 points in four of his last five games and gone for 3.5x in three of the last five. He would have to crack 30 points to make it worthwhile in a tournament, but the Browns have allowed six wide receivers to hit for at least 24 points or greater.

TIGHT END

CASH

O.J. Howard, TB vs. WAS ($5,300) - Howard has become a cash game machine at the tight end position. I wrote him up last week in the GPP section, but now he's graduated to cash. Howard has hit 3.0x value in six of seven games. He has hit at least 4.0x value in five of the last six. The Redskins have been tough against tight ends only allowing three to hit for 3.0x value or greater, but Howard is on such a tear that he should be able to do it against anyone.

GPP

Ben Watson, NO at CIN ($3,400) - Ownership at tight end should be pretty well flat so I'm looking at a sub $3,500 player in a great matchup. Watson fits the bill as the total in the game is 54 and the Saints team total is over 29. The Bengals have allowed seven tight ends to hit for at least 3.0x value, and Watson has hit 4.8x and 5.4x value in the last two games.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

CASH

Jets vs. Bills ($3,400) - The Jets are cheap enough where I think you can fit them in a cash game lineup. Normally, you would want a sub $3,000 play, but going against the Bills has proven to be most fruitful as DSTs have scored more than 15 points per game and hit 3.0x value in six of nine games. The Jets are not that bad either in that they have hit for 3.0x value in four of nine games.

GPP

Bears vs. Lions ($3,600) - You would have thought after last week and overall this season that the Bears would be the most popular play this week, but they are around projected fifth-highest owned. I will take the best defense against a Lions team that is starting to show its weaknesses.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Michael Rathburn plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: burnnotice, DraftKings: burnnotice, Yahoo: burnnotice, Fantasy Aces: burnnotice, FantasyDraft: burnnotice.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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