NFL Reactions: Galloping Toward Greatness

There are many wrong names that might get floated for Coach of the Year. This opening blurb will look at the two correct candidates. Congratulations to those of you who guessed Matt Nagy and Frank Reich. Let no one say you make things more complicated than necessary. Once we narrow it to those two, though, I really have trouble picking a side.

With their respective victories over the Giants and 49ers on Sunday, the Colts are now 9-6 and the Bears are 11-4. The Bears won the NFC North despite betting markets pinning them as the fourth-ranked team in the division. The Colts will make the playoffs if they beat Tennessee in Week 17. Indianapolis went 4-12 last year while Chicago went 5-11.

Although our own Chris Liss has convincingly argued for months now that the relative importance of the quarterback position is in decline, it still remains the most valuable position, so the fact that Reich has benefited from one as great as Andrew Luck seemingly might undermine Reich's candidacy. Indeed, even in what has mostly been a positive season for Mitch Trubisky in Chicago, Luck is clearly several levels ahead of the second-year quarterback. If the Bears had Luck, there's a strong chance they would be the best team in the league.

But that hypothetical segues into the fact that the Bears roster is somehow loaded, whereas Reich has a great quarterback, one very good receiver, a good offensive line, and then a bunch of guys who shouldn't be as productive as they are. There's no reason to assume any of Ryan Grant, Chester Rogers, or Zach Pascal are on the team next year. The defense features Darius Leonard, a rookie linebacker out of South Carolina State who was universally regarded as a reach at the top of the second round, but one who's nonetheless in the midst of one of the best defensive seasons ever, not to mention one of the best seasons ever for a rookie. But the rest of the defense is overachieving talent, and a credit to the strong work of defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus.

Eberflus' presence might normally be a reason to subtract some credit from Reich – the Indianapolis defense has been legitimately good this year and Eberflus may be the primary reason why. But defense is an even bigger part of Chicago's formula, and their league-best defense is the result of not just standout talent, but especially the sage scheming of the great Vic Fangio, a man overqualified for his post.

Perhaps you could read it as a testament to Reich that the Colts find themselves on the verge of a playoff berth despite a poor start to the season, beginning 1-5 and going 8-1 since. Or perhaps you find it more significant that Nagy led the Bears to a first-place finish in a division with two leading preseason Super Bowl candidates. I feel like these two coaches should be the favorites regardless of whether the Colts make the playoffs or how far either team might get in the playoffs, but perhaps the next few weeks will settle the matter all the same. If so, I guess I'd figure Nagy the betting favorite between the two. He already has his division accounted for, and as great as Fangio is with the defense, it's easy to imagine that team finishing third in the division all the same if not for Nagy coaching up Trubisky. Trubisky is completing 66.4 percent of his passes for 3,060 yards (7.5 YPA), 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions this year, which mark his 13th through 25th career starts, yet it still seems to me that he probably isn't as good as his numbers. Plus, if playoff capital can be converted to currency for this particular Coach of the Year race, Nagy's Bears likely project better because their defense allows them to play competitively anywhere, whereas the Colts would be a candidate to disappoint on the road considering Luck's quarterback rating is about 30 points lower on the road this year than at home.

I think both coaches have been highly impressive, in any case. Reich has shown a particularly novel ability to drastically alter his game plans week to week, shuffling through his mediocre personnel with no notice and seemingly making it work quite well. Guys like Rogers and Eric Ebron can catch seven passes in one game and then play fewer than 20 snaps in the next. That might get annoying for us fantasy owners, but perhaps the Colts' unpredictability has played a meaningful role in their success. Nagy seems curious as a person and ambitious as a coach, and it wouldn't surprise me if it turns out that his schemes are among the most complex, which is to say the Bears might be learning on the fly on offense even at this point in the year. I can't wait to see what they cook up with Trubisky in his second season with all of Nagy, Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton, and Adam Shaheen.

• I wrote last week about how I figured Tom Brady's struggles would pass, but Sunday's results against the Bills certainly have me doubting myself. Even at home against the Bills, I think the Patriots would have liked to establish their passing game if only to build some momentum for the playoffs, where they'll get knocked out in a hurry if Brady's numbers don't improve. He's thrown three touchdowns in five games this year, including at Chicago (what the hell?), but in his other 10 games he has just nine touchdowns. By completing 13-of-24 passes for 126 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, Brady was arguably outplayed by Josh Allen, who I'm increasingly getting Vince Young vibes from. But Vince Young might have done a lot better in this era than his own.

• One of the favorite pastimes in establishment NFL media this past year – particularly among those voices who wanted to signal how Hard Nosed they are and how much they Do Things the Right Way – was noting admiration for John Dorsey and his feats as the new and proper general manager of the Browns, who were of course previously managed by the analytics fiend Sashi Brown. "Yes," they agreed, "The baseball hooligan and his terrible calculators are a scourge come for us all. It must be expelled, lest the sanctity of our concussion rituals perish under his pestilence."

Things are looking up for the Browns, but that's only because they have Baker Mayfield, who was the guy for analytics-minded evaluators and absolutely would have been Sashi's own pick, and then Nick Chubb, who was selected with the pick that the Browns got for eating the Brock Osweiler contract. Mayfield and Chubb are Sashi's picks. Dorsey does not get to claim them.

What Dorsey does get to claim, though, are the contracts of Jarvis Landry and Duke Johnson. You might know them as the guys who are respectively the seventh and 11th-highest paid players at their respective positions. Even the ever-apparently competent Freddie Kitchens has found little use for Johnson, and things don't look much better with Landry. Mayfield has been brilliant the last seven weeks, throwing for 1,878 yards (8.5 YPA) and 16 touchdowns in that span. Landry? Well he's the owner of 346 yards and one touchdown in that span on a catch rate of 58.7 percent at 7.5 yards per target. Not good! I don't know what Sashi would have done with Duke, but I can guarantee you he wouldn't have traded for Landry and then extended him at $16 million a year.

• Zach Zenner probably won't get much of a shot in Detroit with Kerryon Johnson already around, but I think the evidence is pretty clear that Zenner can contribute useful production in meaningful situations at running back. He's a standout pass catcher with top-notch linear explosiveness on a 220-pound frame, and in the last three weeks he's run for 144 yards and two touchdowns on 30 carries (4.8 YPC). Since he's a former undrafted free agent he's liable to get ignored by teams, including his current one, but his skill set and tools leave him with a desirable profile for inclusive dynasty formats, and as an unrestricted free agent he might catch on to a decent opportunity in 2019.

• I haven't been able to watch the game and so I can't speak to the meaningfulness of the numbers, but I suppose I have to admit Eli Manning played somewhat well against the Colts on Sunday, completing 25-of-33 passes for 309 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. I'm inclined to think that production, still not good enough, was subsidized by Saquon Barkley getting room for only 43 yards on 21 carries. It's still a crime how much all of Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram have gone to waste in this offense, especially the latter two. If the Giants had even an average quarterback they would be a strong candidate to throw for 4,500 or so yards. Shepard and Engram are 1,000-yard players on other rosters.

• Brian Hill doesn't profile as a big-play guy over a greater sample, but he absolutely has a good enough prospect profile to project as a real candidate to produce at running back with the right NFL opportunity. He's another good dynasty league speculative pickup just in case Tevin Coleman walks and Devonta Freeman otherwise has further issues in 2019. I like Ito Smith enough as a prospect, but I think Hill is a better one. Of course, in Week 17 redraft leagues Hill could be one of the top pickups of the week if Coleman sits out with the groin injury he suffered Sunday.

• If you can still sell Kalen Ballage in dynasty leagues, I'd do it. I feel confident in saying he will not stick as an NFL running back for more than another two years. He's basically like if Anthony Barr never got moved to defense at UCLA. If you can still buyKenyan Drake in dynasty I would also seriously consider that. Even a dim crook like Stephen Ross has to tire of Adam Gase eventually.

• The Jets-Packers game was bizarre, but I'm a fan of both quarterbacks so the outcome was generally heartening. I don't think either running back profiles as a truly viable starter in the NFL, but Jamaal Williams and Elijah McGuire have at the least demonstrated that they're perfect backups. Williams doesn't see the field well but he always runs hard with good anchor, and both backs are plus pass catchers. The window to buy low on Equanimeous St. Brown in dynasty formats is likely passed, but I think it's worth considering buying him anyway if it's otherwise a good fit. He's more of a second- or third-round talent than a sixth-round one, and his play in the past month is only adding to the case.

• It's been a disaster of a season for Marquise Goodwin, due to a combination of personal issue, his own injury, and the injury of Jimmy Garoppolo, but I'd absolutely buy in dynasty formats if possible. Dante Pettis may very well be the WR1 on this team, but Goodwin projects as one of the league's most dangerous WR2s in that case. I'm inclined to think they'll be more of a 1A/1B thing in 2019, and I love both of their breakout potential with Garoppolo back.

• I can't tell whether it's a good look for C.J. Anderson or a bad one for rookie seventh-round pick John Kelly, but Anderson was clearly the better player against Arizona on Sunday, despite only joining the team Tuesday. Gerald Everett's career might have started slower than his investors had hoped, but he has 20 targets in his last three games and seems to be trending upward.

• Robert Foster is getting all the attention among undrafted rookie receivers, but Trent Sherfield absolutely deserves attention. His prospect profile grades closer to that of a Day 2 pick to me than an undrafted one. As I wrote a few weeks back:

Sherfield (6-feet, 203 pounds) was a snub from the combine, something I disagreed with even at the time. Sherfield played for a bad Vanderbilt passing attack but quietly did a great job within it, impressing with 659 yards and three touchdowns in his age-19 season before finishing his career with 50 receptions for 729 yards and five touchdowns on 75 targets last year. That's a 66.7 percent catch rate at 9.7 yards per target in an offense that completed just 57.6 percent of its passes at 7.3 YPA. Sherfield went on to do well at his pro day, where he was credited with a 4.45-second 40-yard dash but was timed as low as 4.39 seconds. He should be owned in dynasty leagues, and he's a chance for deep-league redraft owners to maybe find some free receiver production if they missed out on Robert Foster.

• The idea that Drew Brees should be MVP over Pat Mahomes is obnoxious in my opinion, and I think so much as entertaining the comparison is basically kayfabe. The case for Brees all but begs that the marginally better conference standing of his team overrules the gap that otherwise exists in the actual quality of play between him and Mahomes. First, it doesn't. Mahomes has over 4,800 yards passing and 50 total touchdowns to 13 total turnovers. Brees has yet to hit 4,000 yards passing while scoring 36 times to six turnovers. The gap in turnovers is of course in Brees' favor, but please no one pretend they'd rather have seven fewer turnovers than 14 more touchdowns with less help. Second, the gap in the teams' standings can pretty obviously be attributed to the defenses, as New Orleans has one of the league's very best and Kansas City's is average at best. Mahomes is in his first year as starter and Brees still needs made up criteria to keep up with him. This isn't a serious discussion.