Dynasty Strategy: Buy and Sell

In addition to the rookie-specific dynasty content, we'll try to offer actionable info on veteran players who might provide dynasty owners with profit opportunities.

Different leagues may have difference rules about when and what transactions are allowed, but if possible I think these 'buy' players are worth looking into pretty much as soon as possible, especially in the case of Josh Rosen. The free agent 'buy' players would ideally be acquired before free agency.

Buy

Antonio Callaway, Rashard Higgins, and Breshad Perriman (FA*), WR, CLE

With Baker Mayfield working with Freddie Kitchens, the Browns offense should be one of the highest-scoring in the league for the foreseeable future. It may more specifically be one of the league's highest-scoring offenses and one that runs primarily out of a three-receiver base.

Perhaps Jarvis Landry will do better in 2019 and reassert his hold on the team's WR1 distinction – his catch rate (54.7 percent) will almost certainly go up at the very least – but they aren't committed to him for the long term and he's thus far given them no reason to become more attached. According to OverTheCap.com, Landry's five-year, $75.5 million deal contains $47 million in guaranteed money, but just over $40 million of that will be paid by the end of 2019. This is probably a two-year contract if Landry doesn't do much better in 2019, in other words. Even if Landry does better the Browns might simply look to trade him at that point.

If any or all of the wideouts named in this blurb do well in the future it won't merely be due to Landry failing, however – all of Callaway, Higgins, and Perriman have shown indicators of real upside for their own part. Perriman is a free agent, but GM John Dorsey expressed an intention to re-sign him. Higgins is a restricted free agent, which just about sets in stone a return to Cleveland for 2019, though to be fair he's more uncertain beyond that.

Callaway (turned 22 on Jan. 9) and Perriman (turns 26 in September) would both be strong candidates to emerge as starters on the outside in this scenario, as they both possess high-end speed and played valuable reps with the Mayfield-Kitchens regime last year. Callaway is a character risk and dropped too many passes as a rookie, but he's immensely explosive both on the long ball and after the catch. He would have been a first-round draft consideration if not for his (still substantial) character concerns. Perriman, of course, actually was a first-round pick, and his wipeout in Baltimore may have been attributable to injury to some significant extent. He was awfully productive upon arriving in Cleveland, at least, catching 16 of his 25 targets for 340 yards and two touchdowns as the team's WR4.

Higgins (turns 25 in October) can play all over in the meantime, but if Landry is gone then it would be Higgins who would project uniquely well in the new slot void. Higgins struggled in his first two years but really turned a corner in 2018, turning 53 targets into 39 receptions for 572 yards and four touchdowns. Higgins is a lot like Tyler Boyd – super productive in college but too skinny and slow to easily project outside. But Higgins' combination of hands and route-running ability make him a conventional fit in the slot, where he might already be as good or better than Landry at about 1/3 the cost post-extension, or about 1/18 the cost right now.

Because Higgins is an unrestricted free agent after 2019, the Browns almost have to decide on him or Landry, and the recent results don't incentivize the latter route. Maybe one or all of Callaway, Higgins, and Perriman burn out, but I think they're cheap enough on prime enough real estate to make it worth the move in a lot of scenarios.

David Njoku, TE, CLE

Njoku would project as a 'buy' for me even if he weren't otherwise in a great team context, but the Mayfield offense will take off, and as a passenger Njoku would likely profit from opportunity if not merit. As an unusually young tight end heading into his third year, though, there's a strong chance that he'll take a big step forward on his own account – tight ends almost always take a couple years to develop into their fuller forms. Whereas the previously mentioned Browns receivers carry their risks, I think Njoku will mature into a high-upside, high-floor asset this year.

Going back to 1995 the only tight ends to post more than 600 receiving yards at age 22 are Rob Gronkowski, Jason Witten, Aaron Hernandez, Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap, Jermichael Finley, and Tony Gonzalez. Njoku won't turn 23 until July, so six dropped passes in 2018 just isn't a big deal. Your team doesn't need Njoku, but if you could use him the near future is the cutoff to potentially make a bargain out of him. I think he's worth acquiring even if it isn't cheap, though.

Josh Rosen, QB, ARZ

I would also include David Johnson and Christian Kirk as worthwhile buys right now, but to keep things more concise I figured I'd just mention that at the outset and then focus on Rosen from here.

I think there might be a unique opportunity to capitalize by acquiring Rosen right now, because the amount of speculation around him has his market reception in a bit of a flux despite the otherwise unambiguously good news of the Kliff Kingsbury hire. More specifically, there is a widely-circulated theory that the Cardinals might trade Rosen to clear the way for Kyler Murray with the first overall pick, and that theory likely contains or even suppresses Rosen's price tag in a period where it should be in the midst of an upward spike.

Stated simply, I think that trade hypothetical seems a bit far fetched, and I'd like to short the sentiment as long as it's permeating the market. Unless you think Johnson lost it or never had it as a running back, then I think it's consistent to consider Rosen's disastrous rookie year a N/A rather than admissible evidence. Steve Wilks was one of the most ill-suited head coaching hires of all time, and his presence all but predetermined ruin for Arizona, especially on offense. If that's true, then Rosen should be considered more or less the same prospect he was a year ago, and in that case he would remain one of the league's most valuable quarterback assets, especially with a lack of identifiable quarterback talent in the upcoming draft classes.

That means the starting asking price for Rosen would probably be something like a first- and second-round pick even without factoring the cap penalty of such a trade, and that cap penalty of $10.4 million does indeed demand further compensation. If some team is willing to trade Arizona a 2019 first and second-round pick for Rosen, then I think the Cardinals, if they're at all smart about their finances, will need to demand an additional 2019 fourth-round pick and 2020 second-round pick, or some such haul. I don't see why a team would be willing to pay as much as it would take to conceive an offer that's actually in Arizona's interest to accept.

I'd also argue that there's no reason to think Kingsbury would even want Murray more than Rosen. Just because Kingsbury is an Air Raid advocate doesn't mean he's anti-orthodox in every respect. Indeed, there's reason to believe Kingsbury likes a slow, 6-foot-5 pocket passer as much as any old timey coach. Or so I'd make the conclusion after Kingsbury chose the 'prototypical' Davis Webb over Baker Mayfield at Texas Tech. For all anyone knows Kingsbury may prefer Rosen over Murray even if there were no cap penalty or year of less experience entailed in the switch.

To state it all more simply: Rosen's market right now isn't necessarily acting as if Rosen will start for a Kliff Kingsbury offense even though he very likely will. If Rosen will start in a Kingsbury offense, then he might throw to the tune of 650 pass attempts, and he will be much more efficient as he does so.

Dontrelle Inman, WR, FA

Inman is kind of the same category as Zenner two blurbs from now – a guy you should generally have low expectations for, but one who has just enough skill to make him worth betting on while his value as a free agent is up in the air.

In Inman's case I think we have a player who may have gotten his foot into the door of one of the league's most productive offenses after a strong late-season showing with the Colts, a team that otherwise badly lacks depth at receiver. After wasting snaps on Ryan Grant and Zach Pascal outside in 2018, the Colts should have every incentive to keep Inman around after he totaled 28 receptions for 304 yards and three touchdowns on 39 targets. Inman has earned praise for his route running and realistically projects as an adequate WR2 for the Colts if re-signed, which should make him a WR4 in most 12-team leagues.

I think most people are assuming Inman will quietly disappear from the Colts like he did the Chargers and Bears before that, but the Colts situation is different. They were a well-run machine in the second half of last year, but they were almost dependent on Inman for outside snaps in that stretch. They already know the formula can work with him, and they won't have to pay much to see if he can repeat the results.

Trent Sherfield, WR, ARZ

To piggyback on the Rosen blurb as well as a past article of mine, I think Sherfield also warrants familiarity in dynasty leagues at the very least, and could be very well a strong free investment if you keep 25 or more players in leagues of 12 or more teams. Larry Fitzgerald likely has one year left at most, and Sherfield is a real threat to emerge as one of the team's long-term starters at outside receiver.

Sherfield (6-feet, 203 pounds) was a snub from the combine, something I disagreed with even at the time. Sherfield played for a bad Vanderbilt passing attack but quietly did a great job within it, impressing with 659 yards and three touchdowns in his age-19 season before finishing his career with 50 receptions for 729 yards and five touchdowns on 75 targets last year. That's a 66.7 percent catch rate at 9.7 yards per target in an offense that completed just 57.6 percent of its passes at 7.3 YPA. Sherfield went on to do well at his pro day, where he was credited with a 4.45-second 40-yard dash but was timed as low as 4.39 seconds. He should be owned in dynasty leagues, and he's a chance for deep-league redraft owners to maybe find some free receiver production if they missed out on Robert Foster.

Zach Zenner, RB, FA

Zenner's appeal as a dynasty investment is limited due to modest upside, but particularly in deeper leagues he might present an opportunity to acquire a useful glue guy at a low cost. Zenner could end up going nowhere in free agency, but if he ends up on a team with 300 snaps or more realistically up for grabs then I like his chances of earning the over.

Zenner's appeal as a free agent could be surprisingly mainstream, on the other hand, because he should be perceived as a versatile, passing down-friendly big back who can give you a lot of snaps per dollar. Zenner has turned 37 career targets into 27 receptions for 263 yards (73 percent catch rate, 7.1 YPT) to go along with his 685 yards (3.9 YPC) and eight touchdowns. If Zenner should stumble into a significant opportunity there's a good chance he holds onto it given his adequate NFL production and otherwise subtly strong prospect profile. He ran for over 2,000 yards in each of his last three seasons at South Dakota State, and while his lateral movement might be limited his linear explosiveness (41-inch vertical, 121-inch broad jump) lets him pack a punch as a north-south or one-cut runner.

Sell

Adam Humphries, WR, FA

This is not a 'Sell Now' recommendation so much as a 'Be Prepared to Sell at a Moment's Notice' recommendation. Humphries is a free agent and particularly if he walks to a new team his dynasty value will go up with the disclosure of what would almost certainly be a well-paying contract. It's safe to say that Humphries is a much better player than his prospect profile implied coming out of Clemson, but that also makes him a prime candidate to burn out despite his early improbable success.

Humphries' slot skill set is quite sound – he runs routes reliably and he doesn't drop passes – and he's accomplished for a receiver who will only turn 26 in June. Over the last three years he's caught 192 receptions for 2,069 yards and eight touchdowns on 271 targets, good for 7.6 yards per target on a 70.9 percent catch rate. I'm willing to bet those are the best-case numbers, and that the efficiency will drag faster than the opportunity might increase if he leaves his favorable Tampa Bay environs.

Playing next to the likes of Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin, and OJ Howard can make life easy generally, but especially in Humphries' 2018 numbers I see regression ahead. Humphries' 76 receptions for 816 yards and five touchdowns on 105 targets was a strong showing, but ultimately not sustainable given the high YAC average (5.8) that it necessitated at its low depth of target (6.1 yards). There is nothing in Humphries' history that says he can continue to run that explosively after the catch. His workout metrics were generally poor at 194 pounds (4.53 40, 32.5 inch vertical, 11.28 agility score), and at Clemson he averaged 8.6 yards per catch. There's a strong probability that last year's YAC figure will be the best of Humphries' career. I think there's also a strong chance that if he's playing for almost any other team then Humphries will only post a 70-plus percent catch rate if the YPT figure is below seven.

Nyheim Hines, RB, IND

There are some positive indicators in Hines' profile – he has 4.38 speed and going back to 1970 he's one of only five running backs to post over 60 receptions as a rookie. The problem is he's, I think, pretty clearly just riding the wave of a paradigm shift and isn't actually a standout of any sort. I say that because the other four running backs to do that are Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and Duke Johnson, so pre-2015 rookie backs were basically playing a different game. Moreover, among that sample, Hines cannot even vaguely match the peripherals of the other names, and so I think it's best to assume this gravy train will eventually end.

Hines is fast, but not especially fast for his 200-pound build. He has great hands (77.8 percent catch rate), but he doesn't seem able to do anything with the ball (3.7 YPC, 5.2 YPT). Hines only turned 22 in November and perhaps I'm not projecting enough growth given his youth, but he failed to live up to the sum of his parts at North Carolina State, too, and for all of his speed he seems to profoundly lack elusiveness. Hines has poor balance and vision and I don't know how much experience can help either.

Meanwhile, his 2018 utility to the Colts will likely be the highest of his career. They were an uptempo, pass-heavy offense that had to work with basement-level pass-catching talent, so the setting could not have been better for Hines. The Colts were particularly dependent on his speed to keep defenses honest, because T.Y. Hilton was the only player otherwise to possess sub-4.5 speed on offense. As much as Hines can continue to be a useful way to decipher or otherwise manipulate the defense out of the backfield, his function is easily imitated by other running backs and his novel utility generally would project to lessen as the Colts add wide receiver speed.

Chris Carson, RB, SEA

Carson should have at least a few more years of good football in him and isn't a mandatory 'sell' by any means, but I would at least look into what you might get for him with his brand at what could be an all-time high. As a max-contact runner with underwhelming pedigree, though, history suggests he won't be able to hold off first-round prospect Rashaad Penny for long.

Carson and Penny are very different kinds of runners and serve separate functions, though, and as long as Pete Carroll is coach the Seahawks will evidently do their best to summon the stone age and run the ball as much as possible. For all of his strengths, Penny is not an inspiring option if you just want a madman to angrily get you a short-yardage conversion. On the other hand, if you want to actually make some big plays in the running game then Carson can't keep up with Penny.

The problem with Carson is he already has a reliable recent history of getting nicked up, and he got to his 4.7 yards per carry in 2018 by needing to break an absurd number of tackles despite playing behind a Seattle offensive line that did some of the league's best run-blocking. If he keeps breaking tackles at that pace he'll likely subject himself to further injury, and if he doesn't keep breaking tackles at that pace he could turn into a pumpkin. He played through hip troubles in 2018, suffered a broken leg in 2017, and in 2015 he dealt with unspecified leg troubles at Oklahoma State.