This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was uneventful as the two 20-point favorites won big, and the Vikings won easily, too. Let's take a look at this week's games:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
| Chargers | DOLPHINS | 46.40% | 950 | 90.48 | 4.42 |
| RAMS | Buccaneers | 29.40% | 450 | 81.82 | 5.35 |
| COLTS | Raiders | 7.40% | 290 | 74.36 | 1.90 |
| Chiefs | LIONS | 4.20% | 267.5 | 72.79 | 1.14 |
| RAVENS | Browns | 3.50% | 295 | 74.68 | 0.89 |
| PACKERS | Eagles | 1.70% | 205 | 67.21 | 0.56 |
| Patriots | BILLS | 1.50% | 290 | 74.36 | 0.38 |
| Seahawks | CARDINALS | 1.40% | 210 | 67.74 | 0.45 |
| TEXANS | Panthers | 1.40% | 202.5 | 66.94 | 0.46 |
| FALCONS | Titans | 1.00% | 190 | 65.52 | 0.34 |
| STEELERS | Bengals | 0.70% | 192.5 | 65.81 | 0.24 |
| GIANTS | Redskins | 0.60% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.25 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This is a pretty simple week that comes down to two choices: Chargers or Rams. The Colts and Patriots are less owned, but per Vegas too risky relative to the bigger favorites.
If you agree with the Vegas implied odds, the Chargers are the better bet, and I'll run through the math to demonstrate it.
A Chargers win/Rams loss is 90.5% * 18% = 16.3%. A Rams win/Chargers loss is 82% * 9.5% = 7.8%.
The ratio of 16.3 to 7.8 is 2.1.
In our hypothetical 100-person, $10 pool, If the Chargers win, and the Rams lose, 29 people are knocked out by the Rams, and another seven with other teams, leaving 64 remaining. $1000/64 = $15.63.
If the Rams win and Chargers lose, 46 people are
Last week was uneventful as the two 20-point favorites won big, and the Vikings won easily, too. Let's take a look at this week's games:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
| Chargers | DOLPHINS | 46.40% | 950 | 90.48 | 4.42 |
| RAMS | Buccaneers | 29.40% | 450 | 81.82 | 5.35 |
| COLTS | Raiders | 7.40% | 290 | 74.36 | 1.90 |
| Chiefs | LIONS | 4.20% | 267.5 | 72.79 | 1.14 |
| RAVENS | Browns | 3.50% | 295 | 74.68 | 0.89 |
| PACKERS | Eagles | 1.70% | 205 | 67.21 | 0.56 |
| Patriots | BILLS | 1.50% | 290 | 74.36 | 0.38 |
| Seahawks | CARDINALS | 1.40% | 210 | 67.74 | 0.45 |
| TEXANS | Panthers | 1.40% | 202.5 | 66.94 | 0.46 |
| FALCONS | Titans | 1.00% | 190 | 65.52 | 0.34 |
| STEELERS | Bengals | 0.70% | 192.5 | 65.81 | 0.24 |
| GIANTS | Redskins | 0.60% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.25 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This is a pretty simple week that comes down to two choices: Chargers or Rams. The Colts and Patriots are less owned, but per Vegas too risky relative to the bigger favorites.
If you agree with the Vegas implied odds, the Chargers are the better bet, and I'll run through the math to demonstrate it.
A Chargers win/Rams loss is 90.5% * 18% = 16.3%. A Rams win/Chargers loss is 82% * 9.5% = 7.8%.
The ratio of 16.3 to 7.8 is 2.1.
In our hypothetical 100-person, $10 pool, If the Chargers win, and the Rams lose, 29 people are knocked out by the Rams, and another seven with other teams, leaving 64 remaining. $1000/64 = $15.63.
If the Rams win and Chargers lose, 46 people are out with the Chargers and another seven on other teams, leaving 47 remaining. $1000/47 = $21.28. The ratio of 21.28/15.63 = 1.36.
Hence, if you agree with Vegas, the risk of taking the Rams is not fully offset by the added reward.
The question for me -- because I think the Vegas numbers are overly optimistic on the Chargers -- is what percentage chance to win would the Chargers need to have for me to switch to the Rams?
Essentially, the question comes down to, how do we get the risk ratio down to the reward one (1.36)? I dusted off some algebra I only partially remember (actually used a pad and paper when I couldn't figure it out with a spreadsheet), but the number I got was 86.1%. So if you think the Chargers are less than 86 percent, but agree with everything else (Rams chance to win and the polling numbers), you'd switch to the Rams.
Personally I might split my entries this week between the two.
My Picks
1. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are a decent team, but if institutional memory means anything, they're on the short list of teams that could blow a game to the Dolphins, especially on the road. That said, the Chargers are 1-2, and I doubt they'll take Miami lightly, they typically travel well since they don't have much of a home field advantage and anything but their D- game should do the trick. I give the Chargers an 87 percent chance to win this game.
2. Los Angeles Rams
While the Rams are less likely to blow it than the Chargers, especially at home, the Bucs are more likely to pull off an upset than the Dolphins. But Jared Goff is better at home, and Jameis Winston is usually good for a couple turnovers. I give the Rams an 82 percent chance to win this game.
3. Indianapolis Colts
If for some reason I had to pivot off the first two, I'd probably go with the Colts who are well coached, a sounder team on both sides of the ball than the Raiders and at home. I give the Colts a 75 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions
Baltimore Ravens - They should handle the Browns at home, but they were pushed by Kyler Murray two weeks ago, and Baker Mayfield could be dangerous if he heats up.
New England Patriots - They look unbeatable, but this is a tough road match-up against a division rival.
Kansas City Chiefs - Like the Patriots, they seem unstoppable, but the Lions have played well on defense, and this is a road game.
