This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
This week, I added a wrinkle by making my Week 7 lines before Week 6 and again after Week 6. I'll use the normal after-Week-6 ones for the picks below, but I'll also track how my early lines perform separately to see whether I'm over-adjusting for recent performance.
This week, I especially like the Broncos, Rams, Seahawks and Jets. I feel shaky about the Lions, Bengals and 49ers.
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Chiefs -3 at Broncos
I made this line a pick 'em. The Broncos have a good home field advantage in the thin air, and the Chiefs are banged up and traveling on a short week. Plus, the Broncos running game should be able to control the clock. Take the home dog.
Broncos 23 - 20
Cardinals +3 at Giants
The Giants should have some of their key offensive players back, while the Cardinals get suspended cornerback Patrick Peterson back. This is probably the right line, but give me the Giants laying three at home.
Giants 31 - 27
Texans +1 at Colts
These are roughly equal teams, so this line should be closer to three. The Texans win at the Chiefs was nice, but the Chiefs aren't themselves right now, and the Colts, who also beat the Chiefs at