This article is part of our Survivor series.
Fewer than one percent of Survivor entries lost in an uneventful Week 7, though you did get some pot-odds entertainment for three quarters if you faded the Bills.
Let's take a look at Week 8:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIKINGS | Redskins | 51.20% | 925 | 90.24 | 5.00 |
| STEELERS | Dolphins | 22.60% | 762.5 | 88.41 | 2.62 |
| Rams*** | Bengals | 16.60% | 600 | 85.71 | 2.37 |
| SAINTS | Cardinals | 3.40% | 450 | 81.82 | 0.62 |
| PATRIOTS | Browns | 1.60% | 600 | 85.71 | 0.23 |
| LIONS | Giants | 1.40% | 280 | 73.68 | 0.37 |
| COLTS | Broncos | 0.90% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.26 |
| Seahawks | FALCONS | 0.70% | 300 | 75.00 | 0.18 |
| JAGUARS | Jets | 0.50% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.15 |
| TEXANS | Raiders | 0.30% | 265 | 72.60 | 0.08 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London
The Vikings are the biggest favorites, but the Steelers are the better play here at substantially lower ownership. This is actually surprising to me as "fade the Dolphins" has been an automatic go-to for so many this year, and it hasn't failed yet, though maybe the close-ish call with the Bills changed some minds. I'd still take the Vikings over the Rams, and the Patriots over all of them -- in the unlikely event you have them available.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
The Browns have a puncher's chance, but the Patriots have been so dominant defensively, it's hard to see Baker Mayfield, who's struggled against pedestrian defenses, getting right in this spot. I give the Patriots an 85 percent chance to
Fewer than one percent of Survivor entries lost in an uneventful Week 7, though you did get some pot-odds entertainment for three quarters if you faded the Bills.
Let's take a look at Week 8:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIKINGS | Redskins | 51.20% | 925 | 90.24 | 5.00 |
| STEELERS | Dolphins | 22.60% | 762.5 | 88.41 | 2.62 |
| Rams*** | Bengals | 16.60% | 600 | 85.71 | 2.37 |
| SAINTS | Cardinals | 3.40% | 450 | 81.82 | 0.62 |
| PATRIOTS | Browns | 1.60% | 600 | 85.71 | 0.23 |
| LIONS | Giants | 1.40% | 280 | 73.68 | 0.37 |
| COLTS | Broncos | 0.90% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.26 |
| Seahawks | FALCONS | 0.70% | 300 | 75.00 | 0.18 |
| JAGUARS | Jets | 0.50% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.15 |
| TEXANS | Raiders | 0.30% | 265 | 72.60 | 0.08 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London
The Vikings are the biggest favorites, but the Steelers are the better play here at substantially lower ownership. This is actually surprising to me as "fade the Dolphins" has been an automatic go-to for so many this year, and it hasn't failed yet, though maybe the close-ish call with the Bills changed some minds. I'd still take the Vikings over the Rams, and the Patriots over all of them -- in the unlikely event you have them available.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
The Browns have a puncher's chance, but the Patriots have been so dominant defensively, it's hard to see Baker Mayfield, who's struggled against pedestrian defenses, getting right in this spot. I give the Patriots an 85 percent chance to win this game.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Dolphins are a doormat, but the Steelers quarterback is Mason Rudolph, and it's easy to see this turning into a low-scoring slog either team can win. I give the Steelers an 86 percent chance to win this game.
3. Minnesota Vikings
The short week usually favors the home team, but it also adds volatility, something that's not great for a 16-point favorite. The Redskins defense has some pass rushers, who would be the key to any chance for an upset, but it's a long shot. I give the Vikings an 88 percent chance to win this game.
4. Los Angeles Rams
A trip to London adds unwanted volatility, but the Bengals are so weak on both sides of the ball, the Rams should have their way. I give the Rams an 85 percent chance to win this game.
5. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are so stout on both lines, and whether it's Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Brees doesn't make a massive difference at this point. The Cardinals' pass rush was impressive last week, and they have Patrick Peterson back, but their passing offense isn't efficient, and the Saints should grind down their defense at home. I give the Saints an 82 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions: Lions, Texans, Colts, Seahawks, Jaguars
The Lions can't rush the passer or stop the run, a problem against a skilled Giants team with a weak offensive line, the Texans are solid, but the Raiders have already beaten the Colts and Bears, the Colts draw a 10-day rested Denver team that played close games every week until last, the Seahawks are on the road with a mediocre defense and the Jaguars aren't reliable enough against a Jets team that beat the Cowboys two weeks ago.
