This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Tennessee (+7) at Kansas City, 53.0 o/u – Sunday, 3:05 p.m. EST
While it's easy to cast the Titans as the Cinderella of the remaining teams, that doesn't really reflect how they've played since switching to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. Tennessee went 7-3 in Tannehill's 10 regular-season starts and scored more than 30 points a game doing it; had they maintained that pace all year, the Titans would have finished second to the Ravens in scoring. Tannehill ended up leading the NFL in old-school QB rating with 117.5, edging out Drew Brees, while his QBR was still in the top 10. Of course, Tannehill's numbers in the playoffs have taken a major step backward against two of the league's top secondaries, but it hasn't mattered due to the elephant in the backfield. Derrick Henry's rampage has been going on since Week 10, when he thundered for 188 yards and two TDs against ... hmmm, would you look at that, it was the Chiefs. Henry's average performance in his last eight games, including the postseason, has seen him pile up 159 rushing yards and nearly 1.5 touchdowns with a 6.3 YPC against defenses that knew he was coming and still couldn't do anything about it. The only front seven to hold him to less than 100 yards was the Texans in Week 15, and that was when he was nursing a hamstring strain. After a week off, he came back in Week 17 and hammered them for more than
Tennessee (+7) at Kansas City, 53.0 o/u – Sunday, 3:05 p.m. EST
While it's easy to cast the Titans as the Cinderella of the remaining teams, that doesn't really reflect how they've played since switching to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. Tennessee went 7-3 in Tannehill's 10 regular-season starts and scored more than 30 points a game doing it; had they maintained that pace all year, the Titans would have finished second to the Ravens in scoring. Tannehill ended up leading the NFL in old-school QB rating with 117.5, edging out Drew Brees, while his QBR was still in the top 10. Of course, Tannehill's numbers in the playoffs have taken a major step backward against two of the league's top secondaries, but it hasn't mattered due to the elephant in the backfield. Derrick Henry's rampage has been going on since Week 10, when he thundered for 188 yards and two TDs against ... hmmm, would you look at that, it was the Chiefs. Henry's average performance in his last eight games, including the postseason, has seen him pile up 159 rushing yards and nearly 1.5 touchdowns with a 6.3 YPC against defenses that knew he was coming and still couldn't do anything about it. The only front seven to hold him to less than 100 yards was the Texans in Week 15, and that was when he was nursing a hamstring strain. After a week off, he came back in Week 17 and hammered them for more than 200 yards and three scores. Kansas City might well treat him the way NBA defenses treat a superstar with a limited supporting cast — let Henry get his and stop anyone else from beating you — but that might create a time of possession deficit that even Patrick Mahomes and his quick-strike tendencies has trouble overcoming. Last week's huge comeback against the Texans made for great television, but it also disguised the fact that an Andy Reid team came out kind of flat and looking unprepared after a layoff, which is not the way things were supposed to go. In fact, for a team that's won seven straight, the Chiefs have done a good job of bucking expectations any every step. They weren't supposed to get a first-round bye, but then the Pats stumbled. They were supposed to be an offensive juggernaut, but Mahomes had an 8:4 TD:INT in those last six regular-season victories while averaging only 234.2 passing yards a game with a far-from-elite 7.3 YPA. It was the defense that led the charge into the playoffs, allowing 11.5 points a game over that final stretch before last week's madness against the Texans. If you've done the math, yes, the Titans were the last team to beat the Chiefs. Looking back at that game, though, their defense had even less success stopping Mahomes than the Chiefs' defense did Henry — the QB fired up 446 yards and three TDs in his return from a knee injury. Tennessee did end up winning 35-32 in a game that saw five lead changes after Kansas City jumped out to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter, and while November was a long time ago, another barn burner seems likely unless one or both defenses have made some major adjustments.
The Skinny
TEN injuries: WR Adam Humphries (questionable, ankle), RT Jack Conklin (questionable, shoulder), LB Jayon Brown (questionable, shoulder), LB Rashaan Evans (questionable, foot), CB Adoree' Jackson (questionable, foot)
KC injuries: TE Travis Kelce (questionable, knee), DT Chris Jones (questionable, calf)
TEN DFS targets: Henry (KC 28th in YPC allowed, 26th in rushing yards per game allowed, 29th in rushing DVOA)
KC DFS targets: Mahomes (TEN 24th in passing yards per game allowed), Tyreek Hill (TEN 28th in DVOA vs. WR1), Demarcus Robinson / Mecole Hardman (TEN 30th in DVOA vs. WR3), Chiefs DST (seventh in points per game allowed, TEN 32nd in sack percentage allowed)
TEN DFS fades: Tannehill (KC sixth in YPA allowed, eighth in passing yards per game allowed, t-8th in passing TDs allowed), A.J. Brown (KC third in DVOA vs. WR1, third in DVOA against deep throws)
KC DFS fades: Damien Williams (TEN seventh in YPC allowed, 10th in rushing DVOA), Sammy Watkins (TEN second in DVOA vs. WR2)
Key stat: KC was 20th in red-zone offense during the regular season, scoring a TD on 54.0 percent (27-for-50) of RZ possessions; TEN was 31st in red-zone defense at 68.1 percent (32-for-47)
Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-20s, 9-10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow
The Scoop
Henry gallops for 140 yards and two TDs. Tannehill throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Humphries but gets picked off twice, one of which Kendall Fuller returns to the house. Williams leads the KC backfield with 70 combined yards. Mahomes throws for 350 yards and three TDs, hitting Hill (who tops 100 yards) twice and Kelce once. Chiefs, 31-30
Green Bay (+7.5) at San Francisco, 45.0 o/u – Sunday, 6:40 p.m. EST
While you can't say the road to this matchup exactly went according to the script, the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds will duke it out for the NFC championship, which is a nice change of pace in this increasingly chaotic world. Much like the AFC matchup, one team comes in on a lengthy winning streak with its last loss coming against Sunday's opponent. Unlike the AFC tilt, that prior matchup wasn't remotely competitive. The Niners destroyed the Packers 37-8 in Week 12, and frankly the game wasn't even as close as that final score suggests — SF was up 23-0 at the half before taking its foot off the gas a little. Green Bay, in its first campaign under coach Matt LaFleur, hasn't really established a clear identity. Aaron Rodgers reached 4,000 passing yards, but still had his lowest yardage total and lowest completion percentage in a healthy season since 2015. Davante Adams has been dominant down the stretch (472 yards and four TDs in the last four games, including last week's win over Seattle), but Rodgers has absolutely nobody else trustworthy to throw to, and Aaron Jones is arguably the most important player on the offense now (612 scrimmage yards and seven TDs in the last five games). The defense has been stout — the Seahawks' 23 points last week were the most the unit had allowed since the Niners game — but that's an awfully limited set of weapons to take into a game against a defense that just made the Vikings look like chumps. Robert Saleh's unit seemed to fade down the stretch in the regular season, with their three worst performances of the year in terms of points allowed coming in Weeks 14-16, but the bye week rejuvenated them. The 147 yards of offense the Niners allowed to the Vikings last week was the fewest they allowed all season. If that wasn't enough, Tevin Coleman emerged from mothballs last weekend to post his first 100-yard, multi-TD performance since Week 8. Assuming he's only good for one big game every couple months, Raheem Mostert should resume top-dog duties, but who knows, maybe this will be Matt Breida's time to shine. If the Niners' destructive three-headed backfield is Ghidorah, though, George Kittle is Godzilla. The All-Pro tight end gashed the Packers for a 61-yard TD is their last meeting en route to six catches for 129 yards, and while he got held in check by Minnesota last weekend, he also wasn't needed. He hasn't been held to less than 60 yards in consecutive games since the Niners' Week 4 bye, and he's probably not about to start now.
The Skinny
GB injuries: WR Allen Lazard (questionable, ankle), WR Geronimo Allison (questionable, illness), DT Kenny Clark (questionable, back), LB Preston Smith (questionable, ankle)
SF injuries: DE Dee Ford (questionable, hamstring), LB Kwon Alexander (questionable, pectoral)
GB DFS targets: none
SF DFS targets: Mostert / Coleman (GB 26th in YPC allowed, 23rd in rushing yards per game allowed, 23rd in rushing DVOA), Kittle (GB 24th in DVOA vs. TE), 49ers DST (eighth in points per game allowed, sixth in takeaways, third in sack percentage, GB 15th in points per game)
GB DFS fades: Rodgers (SF first in YPA allowed, first in passing yards per game allowed), Jones (SF t-7th in rushing TDs allowed, 11th in rushing DVOA, first in passing DVOA vs. RB), Jimmy Graham (SF second in DVOA vs. TE)
SF DFS fades: Deebo Samuel (GB third in DVOA vs. WR2)
Key stat: GB was t-21st in the regular season in third-down offense at 36.0 percent; SF was t-2nd in third-down defense at 33.3 percent
Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop
Jones picks up 80 yards. Rodgers throws for 230 yards and TDs to Adams and Lazard. Mostert leads the SF backfield with 100 combined yards and a score. Jimmy Garoppolo throws for 270 yards and a touchdown to Kittle, who tops 100 yards. 49ers, 23-17
Last week's record: 3-1, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 o/u
2019 playoff record: 3-5, 3-5 ATS, 3-5 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 157-98-1, 123-125-8 ATS, 127-122-7 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 160-94-2, 112-134-10 ATS, 113-139-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 793-482-5, 593-637-50 ATS, 493-511-20 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)
