Survivor: Backing the Saints

There are essentially three ways you can go here: (1) Take the heavily-favored Pats along with 55 percent of your pool; (2) Take the next-heaviest favorite, the Saints, along with 21 percent; or (3) use one of the other options and get a bigger payout if either the Saints or Patriots users lose.

Let's compare the Patriots to the Saints first. The chances of a Pats loss/Saints win is nine percent * 84 percent = 7.6 percent. A Pats win/Saints loss is 91 * 16 = 14.6. Essentially the rosy scenario for the Pats backers (all the Saints backers lose) is twice as likely.

Now let's look at the payout. If your entry were worth $10 now, and there were 100 people left in your pool, then if the Pats lose, and you won with the Saints, there would be only 45 people left. Plus another six people who took other teams would be projected to lose. That means 39 survivors. Your equity stake goes from $10 to $25.64. If the Pats won and Saints lost, there would be 79 people left minus six others = 73 people left for an equity stake of $13.70.

The ratio of 14.6 to 7.6 is 1.92, while the ratio of 25.64 to 13.70 is 1.87. So the risk of taking the Saints narrowly outweighs the reward. And normally, when it's close, you should default to the safer pick, i.e., the Patriots, because you have an edge using this method, and all things being equal you want to hang around to press it when the odds are even more favorable.

That said, I'm leaning the other way here because while Vegas puts the Saints at 84 percent, I have them closer to 88 or so. You can run through the math for the other options, but once you put the Saints at 88, none of the lightly-used teams will beat them. I'm pretty sure they wouldn't beat them even using 84.

My Picks

1. New Orleans Saints

They're 0-2, but keep in mind they've played two road games so far. Over the last three years, the Saints are 20-4 at home, 11-13 on the road. It's almost to the point where you should consider home Saints and road Saints two different teams. Home Drew Brees is Peyton Manning 2013, and road Drew Brees is an average quarterback. The Saints draw the Vikings minus Adrian Peterson too, though I don't think he would have made a difference. I give the Saints an 88 percent chance to win this game.

2. New England Patriots

I'm pretty sure I don't have to explain why they're a good bet to beat the Raiders at home. I give them a 91 percent chance to win this game.

3. Cincinnati Bengals

There's a pretty big drop-off from the top two to the Bengals, but I trust this defense, especially at home. My big concern is the status of A.J. Green, but I think Cincy can win this in a grind-it-out fashion if they have to. I give the Bengals a 74 percent chance to win this game.

4. Indianapolis Colts

I wouldn't go here if you have the top two available, but if your pool has strange rules, I'd be surprised if the Colts can't pull this out - even on the road. The decision to use Chad Henne now in order to preserve/develop the clearly superior Blake Bortles speaks volumes. I give the Colts a 73 percent chance to win this game.

5. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles should handle Washington at home, but Philly's defense is inconsistent, and the Redskins might have more stability (if less upside) with Kirk Cousins taking over for RGIII. I give the Eagles a 72 percent chance to win this game.

Notable Omission

Atlanta Falcons - I know people might want to use them up while they have the chance, but I don't think they're better than the Bucs. Atlanta is at home, and the offense should put up points, but I don't trust them to stop Tampa, either.