This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken | Vegas ML* | Vegas Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEAHAWKS | Raiders | 37.80% | 1275 | 92.73 |
| BENGALS | Jaguars | 37.10% | 600 | 85.71 |
| CHIEFS | Jets | 11.10% | 450 | 81.82 |
| 49ERS | Rams | 9.60% | 487.5 | 82.98 |
| BROWNS | Buccaneers | 2.70% | 260 | 72.22 |
* Average of the Vegas moneylines
Vegas and the polling data say take the Seahawks because they're at 93 percent and less than 40 percent taken. It's a closer call between the Bengals and 49ers according to these numbers - the Niners are more likely to lose, but are far less popular. The Chiefs are a close fourth (according to Vegas), and the Browns are probably not even worth considering unless you've used the other four.
My Picks
1. Seattle Seahawks
I don't like this pick much because I think the market is off base in assigning the Seahawks this big a winning percentage. For winless Oakland, this is their Super Bowl, for Seattle it's a game you look past to the ones that matter against the 49ers and Cardinals. Moreover, Seattle lost at St. Louis, barely won at Carolina and got manhandled at home by Dallas the last three weeks. I'm picking them only out of partial deference to the market
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken | Vegas ML* | Vegas Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEAHAWKS | Raiders | 37.80% | 1275 | 92.73 |
| BENGALS | Jaguars | 37.10% | 600 | 85.71 |
| CHIEFS | Jets | 11.10% | 450 | 81.82 |
| 49ERS | Rams | 9.60% | 487.5 | 82.98 |
| BROWNS | Buccaneers | 2.70% | 260 | 72.22 |
* Average of the Vegas moneylines
Vegas and the polling data say take the Seahawks because they're at 93 percent and less than 40 percent taken. It's a closer call between the Bengals and 49ers according to these numbers - the Niners are more likely to lose, but are far less popular. The Chiefs are a close fourth (according to Vegas), and the Browns are probably not even worth considering unless you've used the other four.
My Picks
1. Seattle Seahawks
I don't like this pick much because I think the market is off base in assigning the Seahawks this big a winning percentage. For winless Oakland, this is their Super Bowl, for Seattle it's a game you look past to the ones that matter against the 49ers and Cardinals. Moreover, Seattle lost at St. Louis, barely won at Carolina and got manhandled at home by Dallas the last three weeks. I'm picking them only out of partial deference to the market and due to my lack of faith in the other options. I give the Seahawks an 88 percent chance to win this game.
2. San Francisco 49ers
This game feels like a blowout to me, and I happily laid the 10 points, but even if I'm 55 percent sure that's the case, what about the other 45 percent? In the event the Rams cover, how much do I trust the depleted Niners defense to stop a final drive, or Colin Kaepernick to play his "B-plus-or-better" game when there are more important match-ups on the horizon? Plus, Jeff Fisher's Rams beat the Seahawks a few weeks ago, and have upset even better versions of the 49ers before. I give the 49ers an 82 percent chance to win this game.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
Like the Niners game, this one feels like a blowout to me, with the Bengals, who were reeling and lucky to beat the Ravens, getting a home contest with arguably the worst team in the league. A.J. Green is likely to be back too, and this sets up as a contest where Cincy flexes its muscles. That said, while the blowout scenario is the one that strikes me as most plausible, what if I'm wrong? Cincinnati showed its downside in the Colts game, and I have to price that in too. If Green's not 100 percent, and the Jaguars continue to be stout against the run, it could be a close game where a bounce or two makes the difference. I give the Bengals an 85 percent chance to win this game.
4. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are a distant fourth for me because (1) Michael Vick is a wild card; (2) the Jets run defense is stout, and Kansas City relies on runs and short passes; and (3) The Jets have some weapons now on offense. I give the Chiefs a 78 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Cleveland Browns: The Buccaneers are a doormat, to be sure, but the Browns lost to the Jaguars and were down 9-6 to the Raiders in the third quarter before Darren McFadden fumbled inside their 30-yard line. I don't see them as substantially better than the Bucs and would vastly prefer any of the four above teams to them.
