This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken | Vegas ML* | Vegas Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIONS | Buccaneers | 35.30% | 450 | 81.82 |
| 49ers | RAIDERS | 16.90% | 400 | 80.00 |
| PACKERS | Falcons | 13.80% | 675 | 87.10 |
| SAINTS | Panthers | 12.20% | 450 | 81.82 |
| BRONCOS | Bills | 7.10% | 487.5 | 82.98 |
| VIKINGS | Jets | 6.10% | 240 | 70.59 |
| Texans | JAGUARS | 5.50% | 220 | 68.75 |
*Average of the Vegas moneylines
According to the Vegas numbers, the Packers are the easy pick, but I suspect most people have used them. After that it's the Broncos, but again, I doubt too many have them available. The decision then is likely to be between the Saints, Lions and 49ers, all of whom offer better equity per the Vegas/polling numbers than the Vikings and Texans. Keep in mind, however, that we're at the stage where you should be going through the remaining entries' pick history to come up with your own custom estimate as to who's likely to take what teams.
My Picks:
1. Green Bay Packers
The Falcons have played better of late, but the Packers have been unbeatable at home, and the Falcons have fared poorly outside the division and away from theirs. Add in cold weather and arguably the best team in the NFL, and it's easy to see why Green Bay's the top choice.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken | Vegas ML* | Vegas Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIONS | Buccaneers | 35.30% | 450 | 81.82 |
| 49ers | RAIDERS | 16.90% | 400 | 80.00 |
| PACKERS | Falcons | 13.80% | 675 | 87.10 |
| SAINTS | Panthers | 12.20% | 450 | 81.82 |
| BRONCOS | Bills | 7.10% | 487.5 | 82.98 |
| VIKINGS | Jets | 6.10% | 240 | 70.59 |
| Texans | JAGUARS | 5.50% | 220 | 68.75 |
*Average of the Vegas moneylines
According to the Vegas numbers, the Packers are the easy pick, but I suspect most people have used them. After that it's the Broncos, but again, I doubt too many have them available. The decision then is likely to be between the Saints, Lions and 49ers, all of whom offer better equity per the Vegas/polling numbers than the Vikings and Texans. Keep in mind, however, that we're at the stage where you should be going through the remaining entries' pick history to come up with your own custom estimate as to who's likely to take what teams.
My Picks:
1. Green Bay Packers
The Falcons have played better of late, but the Packers have been unbeatable at home, and the Falcons have fared poorly outside the division and away from theirs. Add in cold weather and arguably the best team in the NFL, and it's easy to see why Green Bay's the top choice. I give the Packers a 90 percent chance to win this game.
2. Denver Broncos
The Bills are actually a decent team, particularly on defense, but I don't like their chances against Denver's defense on the road. I give the Broncos an 84 percent chance to win this game.
3. New Orleans Saints
The Saints haven't been a juggernaut at home this year, but the win in Pittsburgh was significant, and the Panthers look like a beaten team right now. Of course, that doesn't mean Carolina won't suddenly show up for this game - momentum is overrated in the NFL, and it's hard to predict motivation and focus. Plus, the Saints defense is vulnerable should Cam Newton play well. I give New Orleans an 80 percent chance to win this game.
4. San Francisco 49ers
This is a scary pick on the road because the 49ers have played so poorly the last several weeks. But the Raiders didn't even fake it last week, and you have to wonder whether they've checked out completely while playing for a coach who almost certainly won't be around next year. I give the 49ers an 80 percent chance to win this game.
5. Houston Texans
It's a bit off the board taking Houston over Detroit, but I don't trust the Lions, think the Bucs might have turned a corner defensively and expect the Texans to handle Jacksonville irrespective of venue. I give Houston a 74 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Detroit Lions - I might be off base here, but I think this will be a hard-fought game either team can win. The absence of Nick Fairley makes the Lions slightly less formidable on the defensive line, and Tampa's defense has played better of late.
Minnesota Vikings - The Jets are bad, but the Vikings offense might not be able to take advantage of New York's secondary. This could be a low-scoring game either squad can win, and Teddy Bridgewater's not that much better than Geno Smith.
