NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 6

Atlanta at New Orleans (+3) - Thursday, 8:25 pm EDT

Comments: I'm actually rooting for the Falcons to go 16-0 now, with each win coming on ever more improbable comebacks or ridiculous plays. So far in five wins they've twice staged fourth-quarter rallies to overcome double-digit deficits and got a pick-six in overtime to salvage last week's game (thanks, Kirk Cousins!). That doesn't even count the out-of-nowhere performances they've gotten from the likes of Devonta Freeman and Leonard Hankerson. Now that I've completely and thoroughly jinxed them, they could have their work cut out for them Thursday. Freeman (toe), Hankerson (ribs) and Julio Jones (hamstring) are less than 100 percent healthy, and while all played in the win over Washington, the short week won't do them any favors. They probably can't stay undefeated with Jacob Tamme as Matt Ryan's main weapon, so someone else will need to suck it up or step up. ... Then again, there's no better defense to take on short-handed than the Saints, who have been consistently terrible this season. They can't stop the run (4.5 yards per carry, 26th in the league) or the pass (9.1 yards per attempt, 31st in the league), they can't get off the field (last with 122 first downs allowed, including a league-high 23 by penalty) and they can't generate turnovers (just five). It's kind of amazing that Rob Ryan still has a job. ... Sure, he's old, has a banged-up shoulder and is missing his uncoverable goal-line monster, but Drew Brees has still managed to throw for 330 or more yards in three of his four starts and has a reasonable 6:3 TD:INT ratio. Even with the missed game he's on pace for nearly 5,000 passing yards, and as long as that defense remains inept he's going to be throwing the ball a lot trying to keep pace with the other team's offense. The biggest beneficiary of that volume could change from week to week, but as long as Brees can stay healthy he's in the discussion as a top-five option at QB for the rest of the season.

Predictions: Freeman tops 100 combined yards for the fourth straight week but has his thunder stolen a little by Tevin Coleman, who rushes for 80 yards and two touchdowns. Ryan throws for 280 yards and TDs to Jones and Tamme. Mark Ingram gains 80 yards and a score, while Brees throws for 320 yards and TDs to Brandin Cooks and Brandon Coleman. Falcons, 34-24

Washington (+6) at N.Y. Jets - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: You have to hand it to Kirk Cousins, at least he's consistent. Every week this season, he's thrown exactly one TD, and he's alternated games with either two picks or none. It's almost like after throwing a couple of INTs he reminds himself not to be so careless, and last week's soul-crushing pick-six in overtime against the Falcons certainly gives him extra incentive to be overly cautious with the ball this time out. Patterns are made to be broken, though. If he can turn in a one-TD, zero-INT performance against arguably the toughest pass defense in the league (the Jets have allowed a league-low 62.3 QB rating), Washington should consider it a gift. ... Washington's pass defense hasn't been too shabby either, ranking 12th in QB rating against at 90.4, but cornerbacks DeAngelo Hall (toe) and Chris Culliver (knee) are both on the limp. The returns may have been diminishing on Ryan Fitzpatrick after his solid first couple games, but coming off a bye week he should handle Washington's zone scheme and banged-up secondary. ... Due to a limited workload, Chris Ivory is still kind of flying under the radar, but he's been fairly extraordinary this season. In his two healthy games (Weeks 1 and 4) he's racked up 257 rushing yards and three TDs, downright Devonta Freeman-esque numbers. Granted, those two games were against two of the worst run defenses in the league in the Browns and Dolphins, but Washington's 4.4 yards per carry against is right there with Miami's. With the bye week to heal up, Ivory could be primed for another productive day.

Predictions:Alfred Morris leads the Washington backfield with 60 rushing yards, though Chris Thompson manages 50 combined yards as well. Cousins has a miserable day, throwing for less than 200 yards and getting picked off twice. Ivory rushes for 110 yards and a touchdown, while Fitzpatrick throws for 230 yards and TDs to Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Jets. 27-6

Arizona at Pittsburgh (+3) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Cardinals didn't take their first loss of the season lightly, venting their frustrations against an over-matched Lions team last week. That's been the story of their season, though, pounding on inferior opposition, as the Steelers are the first team they'll face with a winning record. In fact, their five opponents have a combined six wins, including the Rams upset, which puts their plus-100 point differential in some perspective. They're a good team, but they're probably not THAT good. ... Michael Vick actually made a couple plays last week, but for the most part he's been far from adequate as Big Ben's replacement. His 85.8 QB rating would be 22nd in the league if he had enough attempts to qualify (snuggled between Blake Bortles and Jay Cutler), and his scrambly ways have gotten him sacked nine times in two-plus games. Arizona's defense has a league-high 11 INTs and a 67.6 QB rating against, fourth in the league, so any success Pittsburgh has on offense will probably have to come predominantly through Le'Veon Bell. ... Can Antonio Brown have any success at all with Vick under center? His volume has taken a plunge without Roethlisberger, but it's not like Vick isn't looking his way, as nearly 30 percent of Vick's attempts have gone to Brown the last two games. He's just throwing a lot fewer passes than Roethlisberger normally does, and throwing them less accurately. Before you give up on Brown entirely while Ben is out, though, keep in mind that he has the talent to turn any single reception into a big game or a score and wasn't the top WR on PPR boards coming into the season based purely on volume. He'll have a tough matchup against a rejuvenated Patrick Peterson this week, but he can't stay nearly invisible forever.

Predictions:Chris Johnson leads the Cards' backfield with 90 rushing yards, but none of its three RBs find the end zone. Carson Palmer has a big game, though, throwing for 300 yards and three TDs to Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and Darren Fells. Bell gains 120 combined yards and scores while Brown returns a punt for a TD despite another quiet receiving day, but Vick has another weak performance and blows a crucial two-point conversion attempt. Cardinals, 24-22

Kansas City (+3.5) at Minnesota - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Ouch. Jamaal Charles' ACL tear is certainly going to ruin some fantasy seasons, but the impact on the Chiefs is even more enormous. It's a rare team where the quarterback isn't the most important player on the offense, but Kansas City certainly qualifies. The Chiefs have 10 offensive touchdowns this season, and Charles had half of them. Second-year back Charcandrick West, who saw 18 snaps to Knile Davis' four last week after Charles went down, figures to get first crack at starting in his absence as he has a similar skillset, but the odds that either, or even both combined, are going to fully replace Charles' production is pretty slim. Facing a soft Vikings run defense allowing 4.7 yards per carry, 27th in the league, could at least give them a chance to get their feet wet in their new roles, though. ... One of the other teams where the QB isn't necessarily the most important player on the offense is Minnesota, which has ridden Adrian Peterson hard in the early going. The near-1,500-yard rushing pace isn't a surprise, but he's also on pace for 36 catches and 368 receiving yards, which would be his best performance in the passing game since 2010. Partially that's due to a lack of healthy and effective options at wide receiver, but as Teddy Bridgewater establishes more trust with AP as a target, there's no reason to think his volume will decrease much. ... If there's a positive impact from Charles' injury, it's that Alex Smith might put together a fairly impressive campaign now that more responsibility is on his shoulders. He was already on pace for the best season of his career, as the addition of Jeremy Maclin has added a modest vertical element to the offense. Smith already had as many completions of 40-plus yards (four) in five games this season as he had in all 2014. Maclin and Travis Kelce give him a couple top-shelf targets, rookie Chris Conley has shown occasional flashes, and West should be at least useful as a receiving option out of the backfield. If Smith has the capability to be anything more than a dink-and-dunk game manager, he's about to get the chance to show it.

Predictions: West leads the Kansas City backfield with 90 combined yards and a score, while Davis also punches in a short-yardage TD. Smith throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Kelce. Peterson rushes for 100 yards and a TD while Bridgewater has his best game of the season, throwing for 250 yards and TDs to Mike Wallace and Stefon Diggs. Vikings, 27-24

Cincinnati at Buffalo (+3.5) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Bills once-promising season is starting to go off the rails. Rex Ryan's defense remains stout, but the offense is falling apart, one injury at a time. The latest casualty is Tyrod Taylor, who sprained an MCL and will probably have to give way to EJ Manuel, or should I say, Eep!J Manuel, this week. No matter how good your defense is, when you're down your starting quarterback, starting running back (LeSean McCoy, hamstring) and his primary backup (Karlos Williams, concussion) and top wide receiver (Sammy Wwatkins, calf), points and wins will be very hard to come by. McCoy, at least, has a chance to be back on the field this week. ... A healthy McCoy could give Buffalo a fighting chance in this one, though. Cinci's run defense has been vulnerable, allowing 4.8 yards per carry, and a ball-control offense would keep Andy Dalton off the field. Incidentally, how weird is it to be talking about Dalton as a QB his opponents want to keep off the field? ... Speaking of which, of all the elite wide receiver options heading into the season, A.J. Green might be the one in the best shape. Julio Jones isn't healthy, Antonio Brown has no quarterback at the moment, Demaryius Thomas is dealing with Peyton Manning's decline, Dez Bryant is sidelined with an injury that has a poor track record for quick recoveries and Calvin Johnson is just plain meh. The only dark cloud on Green's horizon is that Tyler Eifert is cutting into his red-zone action. Other WRs with lower draft-day sticker prices are in the conversation now too (DeAndre Hopkins and Larry Fitzgerald, for instance) but, right now, there's no receiver I wouldn't trade straight up for Green. That said, the Bills allow just 6.3 yards per pass attempt and have a top-five pass defense while the Bengals are on their bye in Week 7, so I'd probably wait a week or two before trying to trade for him.

Predictions:Giovani Bernard gains 90 combined yards while Jeremy Hill bangs home a short touchdown. Dalton can't top 300 passing yards for the fourth straight game, but he does hit Green and Eifert for scores. McCoy starts but rushes for just 60 yards. Manuel throws for 220 yards and hits Robert Woods for a TD. Bengals, 24-10

Chicago (+3) at Detroit - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: After looking like they'd given up on the season after three games, the Bears picked themselves up, dusted themselves off and reeled off consecutive victories over semi-credible opponents. They won them by a combined three points, and needed a season-ending injury to Jamaal Charles along the way, but hey, a win's a win, and now they get the 0-5 Lions to try and make it three in a row. What could possibly go wrong? ... Those Lions don't so much have a quarterback controversy as a quarterback quandary at the moment. Matthew Stafford bottomed out during last week's blowout loss to the Cardinals, but Dan Orlovsky is not a credible replacement, so back to Stafford they'll turn. Improved play from Calvin Johnson would help, but behind Megatron are a bunch of guys playing at less than 100 percent in Golden Tate (hip), Eric Ebron (knee) and even Theo Riddick (groin), so Stafford's options are limited. At least he'll get to face a Bears pass defense that doesn't get picks, doesn't generate much pressure and is allowing a 105.8 QB rating, fifth highest in the league. ... Matt Forte is having another great year as the focal point of the Chicago offense and is on pace for 1,949 combined yards, which would actually top what he did the last two years under Marc Trestman. He's also on pace for a massive 384 touches. The list of players who have had that kind of workload at his age (Forte turns 30 a couple weeks before Christmas) is a very, very short one, and the list of players who have had productive seasons afterword is even shorter. Heck, Tiki Barber and Barry Sanders retired rather than take that kind of pounding again in their early 30s. Forte's been durable in his career, so he may well hold up for the rest of 2015, but heaven help the sucker organization that gives him a big contract as a free agent in the offseason.

Predictions: Forte gains 100 combined yards and a TD. Jay Cutler throws for 280 yards and a touchdown to Martellus Bennett, but also gets picked off twice. Joique Bell shows up with 80 combined yards while Ameer Abdullah gets 60 and both score, Bell on the ground and Abdullah through the air. Stafford also throws a second touchdown to Johnson and minimized his mistakes. Lions, 27-20

Denver at Cleveland (+4) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Time for your weekly "What's Wrong With Peyton Manning?" report. After throwing two picks in the narrow escape over the Raiders, Manning now has a 6:7 TD:INT ratio. He hasn't had thrown more interceptions than touchdowns in a season since his rookie year in 1998. Other measures, such as his 6.5 yards per pass attempt, are also at their lowest ebb since he was fresh out of college. Yes, he's old and doesn't have the arm strength he once did, but the bigger problem continues to be an offensive line that doesn't give him the time to look downfield, get his feet set and launch one as best he can. The Browns don't have much of a pass rush, but seven of their 10 sacks came in one game against a similarly undermanned Titans line. If they can get that kind of pressure on Manning, the Broncos could be in another struggle to stay undefeated. ... Manning isn't the only disappointment on the Denver offense, of course. C.J. Anderson hasn't topped 70 combined yards in a game yet this season, and he has yet to score a touchdown. Blame the offensive line, blame a timeshare with Ronnie Hillman, blame his nagging toe injury if you want, it doesn't really change the fact that he's been a total bust. The Browns' run defense is arguably the worst in the league (they've allowed 5.0 yards per carry and almost 150 yards per game), but there's been very little indication this year that Anderson will step up and exploit it. ... Josh McCown has emphatically put to rest any thought of a quarterback controversy in Cleveland, racking up 1,154 passing yards and a 6:1 TD:INT ratio over his last three games. If math isn't your strong suit, that's nearly 400 yards a game, an amazing achievement considering that his top targets are Travis Benjamin and Gary Barnidge. The three defenses he's done it against, though, rank 18th (Oakland), 24th (Baltimore) and 25th (San Diego) in yards per pass attempt allowed, and are a far cry from Denver's third-place ranking with a 6.1 YPA against. Something's gotta give, and the odds are good it will be McCown's numbers, not the Broncos'.

Predictions: Anderson has his best game of the season, rushing for 80 yards and his first touchdown, while Hillman also picks up 80 combined yards. Manning throws for 240 yards and finds Emmanuel Sanders for a TD. Duke Johnson leads the Browns' backfield with 70 combined yards and a score, but McCown gets sacked seven times and throws for just 210 yards, though he does hit Benjamin for a late TD to keep it close. Broncos, 20-17

Houston at Jacksonville (+1) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments:Arian Foster's performance as a receiver against the Colts obscured the fact that his return from groin surgery hasn't exactly set the world on fire. Through two games and 27 carries, he has a typo-esque 1.9 YPC and has shown little sign of being anywhere close to his pre-surgery form. A matchup against a Jacksonville defense that just got ripped apart by Doug Martin could be what Foster needs to get going, but prior to last week the Jaguars have actually been very good against the run and they still sport a 3.5 YPC against, the second in the league. The Texans don't really have any other options in their backfield, especially given Alfred Blue's turf toe, so Foster should see plenty of touches. He just might not do much with them. ... It looks like Blake Bortles' shoulder won't be an issue after he practiced in full Wednesday, so he can continue building on what's overall been a solid sophomore season. His sub-60 percent completion rate isn't up to snuff by modern standards, but he is on pace for more than 4,000 passing yards and a surprisingly good 32:13 TD:INT ratio. With Julius Thomas getting healthy and ready to join the Jaguars' twin Allen engine of Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, Bortles will have plenty of weapons at his disposal. He's also getting a little more time this year, and is on pace to be sacked only 45 times, instead of the 55 times he got laid out as a rookie. On paper, a J.J. Watt-led defense seems scary, but the Texans somehow only have six sacks through five games, so Bortles could emerge from this one relatively unscathed. ... While Bortles looks OK, the same can't be said for T.J. Yeldon, who hasn't been practicing after injuring his groin against the Bucs. Denard Robinson is set to return to action from a toe injury, though, so if Yeldon can't go, the Jags' backfield may not miss a beat.

Predictions: Foster picks up 70 rushing yards. Brian Hoyer throws for 280 yards and hits DeAndre Hopkins twice in the end zone, but also throws another untimely interception. Yeldon doesn't play, so Denard Robinson starts and rushes for 70 yards himself but also scores. Bortles throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Robinson (Allen) and Thomas. Jaguars, 27-17

Miami (+2.5) at Tennessee - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Responsibility for the Dolphins' poor start fell, not unjustly, on coach Joe Philbin and defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle, and the duo got dumped as the team headed into its bye week. New coach Dan Campbell is now in charge of getting a talented roster to play up to its potential, and a game against a Titans team also looking for its second win of the season probably qualifies as a soft launch. If Campbell and new defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo can get more out of players like Lamar Miller and Ndamukong Suh, there's still time for Miami to turn things around. ... One of the things Campbell is going to need to untangle is the passing game. Jarvis Landry has seen double-digit targets every week, but beyond him things are a bit of a mess. Rishard Matthews looked like he was becoming the downfield complement to Landry's slot role, but somehow only got three targets in Week 4 after back-to-back 100-yard receiving games. First-round pick DeVante Parker appeared to be getting healthy after a foot injury delayed the start of his rookie season, but then he too got shunned in London against the Jets. Meanwhile, offseason additions Kenny Stills, Greg Jennings and tight end Jordan Cameron have varied from ineffective to invisible, though Stills had a decent Week 4 if only because someone had to. Matthews and Parker on the outside, with Landry in the slot, is almost certainly their best alignment both in the short term and with an eye on the future, but whether the Dolphins can figure that out remains to be seen. ... If you have to have shares in the Tennessee backfield, Antonio Andrews increasingly looks like the guy to have. He's scored in consecutive games, and his 115 combined yards in those games is almost as much as Bishop Sankey and Dexter McCluster put together. There's not a lot of upside here given the weak performance of the offensive line, and fifth-round pick David Cobb will come off IR in a few weeks to muddy the waters even further, but at least for now Andrews' role seems likely to keep growing.

Predictions: Miller takes advantage of consistent carries and responds with his first 100-yard game and first touchdown of the season. Ryan Tannehill throws for 240 yards and a TD to Matthews. Andrews leads the Titans backfield with 60 yards while Marcus Mariota has a big game, throwing for 330 yards and three touchdowns, two to Dorial Green-Beckham and one to Delanie Walker. Kendall Wright tops 100 receiving yards, and Jurrell Casey returns a Tannehill fumble for a TD, as well. Titans, 34-20

Carolina (+6.5) at Seattle - Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Comments: The undefeated Panthers get their first real test of the season, and it's a doozy. Kam Chancellor's return to the Seahawks' secondary seems to flip the switch for the whole unit, and in three games with an intact Legion of Boom, Seattle has allowed just 37 points, most of those coming on the road in Cincinnati last week. Cam Newton, meanwhile, has faced the Hawks three times in the regular season and averaged a 54.1 percent completion rate and 146 passing yards, with just one passing TD in the three games while not doing much on the ground, either. Cam probably will end up wishing Kam's holdout had lasted a month longer. ... More good news for Seattle: Marshawn Lynch looks set to return to the backfield after making it through a full practice Thursday. Thomas Rawls did amazingly well in his absence, so some sort of timeshare seems likely as the team tries to keep Lynch rested and healthy, but after a couple weeks off it wouldn't be surprising to see Beast Mode come out of the gate roaring. ... To counter Lynch, the Panthers should also get Luke Kuechly back from his concussion. The All-Pro linebacker will have a tough time collecting his usual 150-plus tackles after missing three games, but I wouldn't put it past him, and a Carolina defense that has yet to allow more than 23 points in a game this season just got a whole lot stronger.

Predictions:Jonathan Stewart gains a surprising 90 yards with a TD, but Newton is bedeviled once again as he throws for just 170 yards, though he does manage to find Greg Olsen for a touchdown. Lynch starts and gains just 60 yards but scores, while Rawls also chips in 50 combined yards. Russell Wilson throws for 240 yards and runs for another 40, but doesn't get the ball into the end zone. Tyler Lockett returns another kick for a touchdown to bail out the Seahawks in a slugfest. Seahawks, 20-17

San Diego (+10) at Green Bay - Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: The struggles of the Chargers' running game and their defense haven't helped much in the win column, but they've done wonders for Philip Rivers. He's now thrown for 350 or more yards in three of his five starts and multiple TDs in four of the five, leading him to a career-high pace almost across the board. He has the weapons to keep producing too, as Antonio Gates didn't miss a beat in his return from suspension last week, while Keenan Allen's fairly ridiculous numbers should be getting more attention than they have so far. The Packers have been tough on quarterbacks (second in the league with 20 sacks, and second in the league with a 62.8 QB rating against), but the list of the quarterbacks they've beaten into submission isn't exactly the position's elite. Holding Russell Wilson in check is nice, but after that it's Jay Cutler, Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick and Nick Foles. At the very least, Rivers is a step above that bunch, and if San Diego falls behind early at Lambeau, he could easily pile up the volume once again trying to make up the deficit. ... What gives with Eddie Lacy? Five games into the season, one touchdown and zero 100-yard rushing games were not what anyone expected. His Week 2 ankle injury certainly doesn't help, but since then the Packers have kept a close eye on his workload, using James Starks more than anticipated. If that's because Lacy's ankle isn't 100 percent healthy yet, better days should be ahead. If he is fully recovered, though, and the team is keeping Starks in the mix to prevent future injuries to their starter, this could wind up being a frustrating season for anyone invested in Lacy. On the bright side, the Chargers' defense allows a league-high 5.1 yards per carry, so even in a timeshare, both Lacy and Starks could end up looking good. ... Speaking of disappointments at running back, Melvin Gordon hasn't looked like a first-round pick yet (well, unless Trent Richardson is your exemplar), but there was a glimmer of hope in last week's loss to the Steelers. Sure, he only ran for 42 yards, but his seven passes on nine targets for 52 yards topped his work in the passing game from the previous four weeks combined. If he's gaining Rivers' trust as a receiver, that's going to mean fewer snaps for Danny Woodhead and another path to production for the rookie. Green Bay's run defense is nearly as bad as San Diego's (5.0 yards per carry allowed), and being back home in Wisconsin might be just the thing to get Gordon going.

Predictions: Gordon has his first good day as a pro, topping 100 combined yards and scoring a receiving TD. Rivers falls short of 350 yards passing but does throw three touchdowns, with the other two going to Allen and Malcom Floyd. Lacy also runs for 100 yards and a score, while Starks also runs one in. Aaron Rodgers does his thing, throwing for 280 yards and TDs to Randall Cobb, Ty Montgomery and Richard Rodgers. Packers, 38-27

Baltimore at San Francisco (+2.5) - Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: Are the Ravens going to have enough players to field a full team? Steve Smith doesn't look close to returning from the microfractures in his back, Breshad Perriman isn't returning from his knee surgery any time soon, Crockett Gillmore is hobbling and now Justin Forsett looks iffy after an ankle injury kept him off the field until Friday's practice. Even newcomer Chris Givens is questionable, and probably injured his ankle putting on his Baltimore uniform for the first time. Ozzie Newsome may have to come out of retirement just to give Joe Flacco someone to throw to. ... Colin Kaepernick is apparently an east coast boy at heart. In two games in the eastern time zone, he's completed 69.1 percent of his passes for 597 yards and four TDs without an interception. In three games out west (two at home, one in Arizona) he's completed 55.7 percent of his passes for 392 yards with five INTs and no touchdowns. Small sample sizes? Of course. Are you going to trust him at home this week after seeing that? Of course not. ... Carlos Hyde is also dealing with a foot injury, though it seems like he'll play through it. The Ravens' run defense, at least, has been solid this year (10th in the league with a 3.8 YPC against), so this could be another low-output slog for Hyde. Despite a decent effort against the Giants, his Week 1 explosion feels like it was an eternity ago.

Predictions: Forsett plays, but Javorious Allen sees more touches and bangs out 80 yards and a TD. Joe Flacco has another weak performance, throwing for 220 yards and a touchdown to Kamar Aiken. Hyde rushes for 60 yards while Kaepernick flounders again, throwing for 190 yards with two INTs. Ravens, 20-9

New England at Indianapolis (+8) - Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

Comments: I'm not a clairvoyant or a wizard or anything, but I am absolutely convinced that in the offensive meetings this week for the Patriots, it was pointed out more than once that the Colts have yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end this season, with Bill Belichick glaring at Rob Gronkowski when he said it like he was wondering what Gronk was going to do about it. ... Andrew Luck seems set to return to action from his shoulder injury, but do the Colts want him back? I'm only semi-joking, as their offense looked far smoother with Matt Hasselbeck under center than it did in the first three weeks of the season, when Luck was tossing multiple balls a game to the other team. Whatever was wrong with their franchise QB, they better hope the two weeks off fixed it. ... Andre Johnson's revenge game against the Texans was a great story, and I was kicking myself for not thinking of that obvious narrative when writing up last week's Game Caps, but he didn't really look all that much better than he did through the first month of the season. The Colts just made it a point to get him involved against the former club, and Coby Fleener could just as easily have run those routes. Maybe the big performance lights a fire under Johnson and he returns to relevance, but I'd still rather have Donte Moncrief for the rest of the year.

Predictions:LeGarrette Blount rushes for 60 yards and a score, while Dion Lewis has a quiet game. Tom Brady throws for 370 yards and three TDs, one to Keshawn Martin and two to Gronkowski, while both Gronk and Julian Edelman top 100 receiving yards. Frank Gore runs for 70 yards, while Luck looks rejuvenated, throwing for 310 yards and three touchdowns of his own to Moncrief, Fleener and T.Y. Hilton. Patriots, 31-24

N.Y. Giants (+4) at Philadelphia - Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

Comments: It's a good thing the Giants have an extra day to get ready for this game, as their receiving corps needs it. Victor Cruz seems no closer to returning from a calf injury, Odell Beckham hasn't practiced due a hamstring strain, and even Rueben Randle is a bit gimpy with a hamstring injury of his own. Tom Coughlin seems confident that Beckham will play, and given how important this game could be in a tight NFC East, I'm inclined to believe him. Whether Beckham is anything more than a glorified decoy, though, remains to be seen. ... Welcome back, DeMarco Murray. Your dreams were your ticket out of the fantasy doghouse. After popping for 120 combined yards and a score last week, he faces a Giants team he tended to do very well against when he was a Cowboy, averaging 110 rushing yards and 5.2 yards per carry in five games against them the last few seasons. Curiously, though, he only had one touchdown against them during that stretch. If he has indeed found his footing in Philly, the backfield pecking order for the Eagles, and indeed the entire offense, should become a lot steadier. ... Both quarterbacks have looked very good the last two weeks. Eli Manning has completed 68.5 percent of his passes for 653 yards and a 6:2 TD:INT ratio, while Sam Bradford has completed 64.4 percent of his for 603 yards and a 5:2 TD:INT ratio. Neither secondary has been particularly great this season either, though they've been opportunistic enough (six picks for the Eagles, five for the Giants) to keep their overall numbers solid. In fact, New York's the only team in the league averaging more than 300 passing yards a game against them. If you're a contrarian, that points to a low-scoring game settled on the ground, but I suspect this one will play out exactly as it seems, with both QBs airing it with abandon.

Predictions:Rashad Jennings gains 80 combined yards and a score, and while Beckham is clearly not 100 percent healthy, Manning still throws for 310 yards and TDs to Shane Vereen and Randle. Murray rushes for 130 yards and a touchdown, while Bradford has his best statistical game of the season, throwing for 360 yards and touchdowns to Jordan Matthews, Josh Huff and Zach Ertz. He also throws a pick-six to Brandon Meriweather, forcing Caleb Sturgis to play hero. Eagles, 37-34

Last week's record: 9-5, 3-10-1 ATS
Season to date: 52-25, 38-37-2 ATS