East Coast Offense: A Tragedy of Errors

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

DFS Delusions

I wrote two weeks ago about how DFS sites should use projected stats to show where you really rank throughout the day rather than simply sorting by how many points you have. Or at least make sorting and tallying by projected scores an option. That way, you wouldn't get delusional when this happens midway through the fourth quarter of the early games.

My total winnings at that point were more than $19K (among my 220 or so lineups costing $450 in entry fees), and while I knew all my big ones were done after the early slate and likely to drop as late-game and Sunday-night results came in (the Monday night game between the Cowboys and Redskins didn't scare me), I didn't know the extent. I guessed I'd finish with $1,500-$2,000.

By the end of the fourth quarter, it was down to $10K. After the late games, it dropped to $2,000. But I knew the big four Steelers (Antonio Brown, DeAngelo Williams, Ben Roethlisberger and Martavis Bryant) would be heavily owned. And there would be some people on the Steelers defense and kicker. Hopefully, the Colts would show up, and they'd mostly have a quiet game. Of course, all of them went off, and by the start of Monday night, I was down to $594.

It was still a small profit, and the temporary elation at possibly winning a big score offset my disgust at the Giants blowing a 10-point fourth quarter lead and losing in overtime. But it would have been useful to toggle to a "projected winnings tab" and see it say $800 rather than clicking on so many teams behind me in the standings and constantly finding new player to root against.

One other bit of free advice to the DFS companies: When you have 200-plus entries, it's hard to figure out which are doing well and which are drawing dead. You should be able to sort by "quarters" or "minutes" remaining, depending on sport, by projected winnings, by total points, etc.

DFS Strategy

I'm by no means an expert, but because I've made a profit three weeks in a row, I'll presume to offer some advice: For NFL, there's too much variance to set a few lineups. Sure, you could get lucky, but the odds you have everything just right are slim. (I'm talking GPPs now, not heads-up or 50/50s which I rarely play.) So my method is to have a 2-4 core QB-WR or QB-TE stacks, 4-6 WR, 4-6 RBs, 3-4 TEs and 2-4 K/D combos. Even then I can't hit every permutation, and I'll add in some wild cards to make the salaries work, but I want to be heavily invested in 10-15 players of which I have many combinations. If they fail, I'm out $400 or so, but because I have so many lineups, there's a good chance I'll get $50-$200 back even on a bad day. And if, like last week, Allen Robinson, Marcus Mariota and Odell Beckham are part of the core, there's a chance for a big win. Of course, the difference between winning $5000 and $500 is only about 10 fantasy points, so you're going to need some luck, like Robbie Gould not missing that kick and sending the game into overtime where the 49ers scored another TD on the Bears Defense's dime. (The Bears K and D were part of last week's core.)

Season-long Frustration in Real-Life and Fantasy

You ever wake up, and everything you see or read enrages you? (For me that's called "morning.") Today, I noticed a few things:

(1) I finished with the most points in my NFFC league, but that paid only $700 instead of $1500 because I was one-game behind the division leader. The reason? Because he got six points from his defense in Week 12 on the Ravens blocked FG TD, the last play of the Monday night game, to win his matchup by one point. (It wouldn't have mattered except I lost my game on the Travis Benjamin TD two minutes before. Of course, that wouldn't have mattered had I not subbed out the Bengals D (against the Rams in Week 12 for the Chiefs D against the Bills, or had Tony Romo not departed the Thanksgiving Day game with minus 0.7 points.)

(2) In the League of Leagues, a two-year, multi-sport competition, Dalton Del Don and I are in the playoffs facing the Jonah Keri team that just acquired DeAngelo Williams for Jean Segura. Apparently, the Williams team, not making the playoffs, figured because Williams had no keeper value, he might as well dump him for a borderline middle infielder. Of course, it never occurred to him to send an email to the league where Williams is incredibly valuable for this year's playoffs and see if he could get more. Had we needed a running back, I would have offered at least Prince Fielder or some other top-five round pick for him. If we get bounced because Williams goes off, I'll be postively apoplectic.

(3) While the Giants end-game coaching decisions have been horrible, and I'm not opposed to the team firing Tom Coughlin (though after watching the Cowboys-Redskins end game, I shudder to think of who would replace him), the Giants beat writers have singled out for criticism the one thing Coughlin did correctly which is go for the touchdown on 4th-and-goal when the Giants were up 10 in the fourth quarter. Think about it, if they score the TD, it's game over. If they fail, and they did, the Jets get it down 10 deep in their own territory and play for the tie (which they did.) If the Giants kick the FG, they go up 13, the Jets still need two drives, and if they succeed, they win outright, i.e., the game does not ever go to overtime. It's the same reason why you don't kick the field goal to go from three to six from in close in the final minutes because (1) You have to kick off rather than the opponent getting the ball near its goal line; and (2) because the opponent will be forced to use all four downs and play for the win rather than the tie. But the Giants beat writers - instead of putting pressure on the coach to do the right thing - are actually trying to destroy the one correct thing he did and make his decision making even dumber, if that were possible.

(4) While I'm on the topic, I have to mention my neighbor who is arguably the cheapest person in human history. In any event, he emailed us complaining the tall, thin trees separating our backyard from his property (a multi-unit dwelling comprised of three small two-story buildings) were breaking up his driveway with their roots. He asked if he could cut them down and replace them with bushes, and while he'd pay for the cutting down, could we chip in half the replanting cost ($175?), especially given the bushes would be cheaper to maintain over the long haul. We agreed mostly because we like to be good neighbors, and the roots tearing up his driveway seemed like a legitimate concern. So he cuts down the trees (some of you who listen to the SXM show were treated to that sound in the background two weeks ago), and we discover his tenants on the upper floors are basically 30 feet away and looking into our yard from their front staircase. While I was grilling, I felt like one of them was at my barbecue, i.e., the trees had provided a ton of privacy for the yard. So Heather emails him, asks when the bushes will be in place because we've lost all privacy, and he responds not for another month, and of course they'll be small ones that'll take months (years?) to grow to any height that would restore even some of the privacy. He sends links to full-sized bushes, says he can't afford those, but maybe we can get a better price? This isn't going to end well.

(5) For the NFFC playoffs (Weeks 14-16) you want to have a couple kickers, tight ends and defenses for match-ups and also in case of injury because there are no free agent pickups. I had a tough call on cuts prior to Week 13 (Kendall Wright, Devin Funchess, Ryan Mathews, Robert Turbin and Alfred Morris.) I axed Turbin and Mathews (it's PPR), and now it looks like Mathews is back from his concussion and could possibly be the resurgent Eagles starting RB. (Obviously, I should have cut Morris in retrospect.)

A Tragedy of Errors

The Monday night game was amazing. You had arguably the most boring 55 minutes in NFL history, followed by dramatic strategic failures by players and coaches from both teams, including but not limited to:

(1) The Cowboys down 9-6 at 3rd-and-goal from the one-yard line, running Darren McFadden into the teeth of the defense and the Redskins stuffing him in the backfield before the play even got going;

(2) DeSean Jackson running backwards on a punt return and fumbling;

(3) Darren McFadden running out of bounds for no reason, in field goal range with 1:26 left, saving the Redskins a timeout;

(4) McFadden scoring the TD with 1:19 left, to go up seven, rather than kneeling down after gaining the first down, allowing the Cowboys to run the clock all the way down before kicking a game-winning chip-shot field goal. (Neither Jon Gruden, nor Mike Tirico mentioned this possibility until after McFadden scored.)

(5) The Redskins actually trying to stop McFadden from scoring the TD even though him scoring on that play was the best-case scenario for them;

(6) The Cowboys committing a facemask penalty on the kickoff return, giving the Redskins the ball on the Dallas 42-yard line. The game went from being completely sealed had McFadden taken a knee to the Redskins having a minute left and two timeouts in Dallas territory, i.e., time wasn't even a factor, and of course they scored a TD (and even left too much time for the Cowboys);

(7) After kicking the game-winning field goal, the Cowboys kicked right to DeSean Jackson who instead of trying to return it as usual, immediately initiated the lateral drill. Why would you kick it to Jackson, and if you're Jackson, why wouldn't you just return it?

Week 13 Observations

• The Giants are such an incredibly stupid team. They ran the ball 23 times against the league's top-rated run defense, getting only 72 yards. That left only 34 passes on which they averaged 8.7 yards per attempt against a weak secondary that was missing Darrelle Revis. In the interest of "balance" they played to the Jets' strengths much more often than they needed to. If the idea were to run every now and then to make the Jets honor it, a 13/44 balance would have been fine, and they almost certainly would have scored more points.

Two particularly egregious calls were (1) when the Giants had the ball 3rd-and-goal from the one-yard line and ran Andre Williams into the middle of the defense. He was predictably stuffed for no gain, and Tom Coughlin compounded the error by kicking a FG on fourth down. And (2) in overtime, down three, the Giants had the ball 2nd-and-10 from the Jets 34 and ran Rashad Jennings for a four-yard gain, making it a slightly shorter field goal. Even had Josh Brown made the game-tying field goal, the Jets, who had moved the ball with ease, would have had the ball and only needed a FG to win. The play was to go for a game-winning touchdown, and the only plausible way that would happen was through the air. But this is the same story every week.

•Odell Beckham caught 6-of-11 targets for 149 yards and a touchdown and nearly had a second long score that was knocked out of his hands in the end zone. In a game without Revis, though, Beckham should have seen at least 15 looks.

•Brandon Marshall had a great game, catching 12 of 13 targets and scoring. He's still the same player he was when healthy in Chicago.

•Chris Ivory gave way to Bilal Powell due to game flow, and Powell produced. This looks like a poor man's Gio Bernard/Jeremy Hill.

•DeAngelo Williams looks awfully spry for 32, but keep in mind the Panthers never worked him especially hard even when he was in his prime.

• The Matt Hasselbeck story was nice, but he got exposed in Pittsburgh.

• Why can't Julio Jones (17 targets, 93 yards) make a big play any more? Jones faces the league's best cover corner Josh Norman twice in the next three weeks, too.

•Devonta Freeman hasn't been a productive runner for a while, but his contributions in the passing game make him a near lock in fantasy whenever he's healthy.

• How does Matt Schaub throw a pick six every week? It's one thing to be inaccurate or telegraph your throws, but how do you cause the defender to return it all the way to the end zone so reliably?

•Allen Robinson has to be a top-five receiver at this point, certainly ahead of Julio Jones. Maybe Antonio Brown and Beckham can rank ahead of him, but I'm not sure I'd feel strongly about anyone else.

•Cam Newton got off to a slow start and still finished with five TD passes, 331 passing yards and 49 on the ground. There are four elite fantasy quarterbacks this year: Newton, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger.

• The Panthers play three 6-6 teams and one 5-7 one (the Giants) in their bid to go undefeated. I'd still bet against them doing it.

•Marcus Mariota won't have an 87-yard touchdown run ever again, and he doesn't get to play against the Jaguars secondary every week, but getting Dorial Green-Beckham involved (5-of-6 for 119 yards and a TD) is big for him.

•Blake Bortles now has 27 TDs passes with four games left on the schedule. That's a 36-TD pace.

• Let's not get excited about Denver's Brock Osweiler offense just yet. They scored only 10 offensive points against a defensive doormat in San Diego.

•Jay Cutler was having a great year when there were no expectations, but suddenly the Bears are a fringe contender and big home favorites, and he falls apart. Blaine Gabbert, on the other hand, continues to manage the game like a quality backup and even chipped in with a 44-yard TD run.

• The Seahawks exposed the Vikings so badly, they should be treated for frostbite. For the second straight week Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin had big games.

• The Eagles upset of the Patriots was somewhat lucky (they had three defensive/special teams scores), but it goes to show we can never know about a team's motivation, no matter what we watch or read.

• After Monday night's game, 8-8 almost certainly wins the NFC East.

• Even in a disastrous game with his best receivers out and Brandon LaFell dropping passes, Tom Brady managed to throw for 312 yards and three touchdowns and rushed for a score. He was inefficient (5.6 YPA), but he gets it done for fantasy purposes every week.

• The Browns really showed Johnny Manziel these last two weeks. I hope he learned his lesson.