This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHIEFS | Chargers | 29.00% | 487.5 | 82.98% | 4.94 |
| BRONCOS | Raiders | 18.40% | 340 | 77.27% | 4.18 |
| JETS | Titans | 14.00% | 330 | 76.74% | 3.26 |
| PANTHERS | Falcons | 8.00% | 340 | 77.27% | 1.82 |
| PACKERS | Cowboys | 6.60% | 310 | 75.61% | 1.61 |
| Seahawks | RAVENS | 4.90% | 265 | 72.60% | 1.34 |
| CARDINALS | Vikings | 4.70% | 365 | 78.49% | 1.01 |
| BUCCANEERS | Saints | 3.00% | 185 | 64.91% | 1.05 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The percentage owned numbers don't mean much at this point, so I'm only going to use them as a tiebreaker, i.e., my picks will strictly be in the order of likelihood to win, and if it's a toss-up between two teams, I'll go with the lesser used one.
My Picks
1. Arizona Cardinals
The Vikings are missing three key defensive players, have to travel to Arizona on a short week and are facing one of the best rounded teams in the league. Plus, the Cardinals are significantly better at home. I give them an 81 percent chance to win this game.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
I don't love division rivalry games because the teams know each other, and that levels the playing field. That said, the
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHIEFS | Chargers | 29.00% | 487.5 | 82.98% | 4.94 |
| BRONCOS | Raiders | 18.40% | 340 | 77.27% | 4.18 |
| JETS | Titans | 14.00% | 330 | 76.74% | 3.26 |
| PANTHERS | Falcons | 8.00% | 340 | 77.27% | 1.82 |
| PACKERS | Cowboys | 6.60% | 310 | 75.61% | 1.61 |
| Seahawks | RAVENS | 4.90% | 265 | 72.60% | 1.34 |
| CARDINALS | Vikings | 4.70% | 365 | 78.49% | 1.01 |
| BUCCANEERS | Saints | 3.00% | 185 | 64.91% | 1.05 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The percentage owned numbers don't mean much at this point, so I'm only going to use them as a tiebreaker, i.e., my picks will strictly be in the order of likelihood to win, and if it's a toss-up between two teams, I'll go with the lesser used one.
My Picks
1. Arizona Cardinals
The Vikings are missing three key defensive players, have to travel to Arizona on a short week and are facing one of the best rounded teams in the league. Plus, the Cardinals are significantly better at home. I give them an 81 percent chance to win this game.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
I don't love division rivalry games because the teams know each other, and that levels the playing field. That said, the Chargers offense is in shambles, and it's not likely they get it together in Arrowhead in December. I give the Chiefs an 81 percent chance to win this game.
3. Carolina Panthers
The Falcons have been one of the worst teams in the league over the last month, and the 12-0 Panthers draw them at home. Moreover, Atlanta's one explosive offensive player, Julio Jones, is likely to be neutralized by all-world corner Josh Norman. I give the Panthers an 80 percent chance to win this game.
4. Green Bay Packers
I know the Packers have played poorly of late, but they'll handle the Matt Cassel Cowboys off a short week at Lambeau Field. I give the Packers a 77 percent chance to win this game.
5. Seattle Seahawks
They're on the road, but facing Matt Schaub or Jimmy Clausen shouldn't be a tall order, and Russell Wilson should move the ball against one of the league's weaker pass defenses. I give the Seahawks a 76 percent chance to win this game.
6. New York Jets
If Darrelle Revis is out, the Titans should move the ball through the air, but the Jets passing game is better, and the Titans defense is considerably worse. I give the Jets a 74 percent chance to win this game.
7. Denver Broncos
The Broncos defense might be the best in the league, but the offense, even with Brock Osweiler, is below average. For that reason, I'd expect the Raiders to hang around. I give the Broncos a 74 percent chance to win this game.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Late in the year, you don't always have a ton of choices, but in a pinch, I'd take the Bucs at home against a Saints team that doesn't travel well or play defense. I give the Buccaneers a 66 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions: none
