This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at Week 15:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIKINGS | Bears | 24.70% | 220 | 68.75% | 7.72 |
| PATRIOTS | Titans | 21.90% | 1250 | 92.59% | 1.62 |
| SEAHAWKS | Browns | 12.10% | 1500 | 93.75% | 0.76 |
| STEELERS | Broncos | 9.30% | 250 | 71.43% | 2.66 |
| Chiefs | RAVENS | 7.30% | 290 | 74.36% | 1.87 |
| Jets | COWBOYS | 5.60% | 165 | 62.26% | 2.11 |
| JAGUARS | Falcons | 4.50% | 145 | 59.18% | 1.84 |
| SAINTS | Lions | 2.40% | 150 | 60.00% | 0.96 |
| Panthers | GIANTS | 2.10% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.66 |
| Texans | COLTS | 1.80% | 100 | 50.00% | 0.90 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Pats and Seahawks are the obvious plays, but few have them available. After that, it's the Chiefs and Steelers, and don't forget one lesser owned team (not on this chart), the Bengals.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
The Patriots should destroy the Titans at home, especially now that Rob Gronkowski is back. Marcus Mariota's having a strong rookie season, but Bill Belichick usually throttles young QBs, and this is the best defense the Patriots have fielded in the last decade. I give the Patriots a 92 percent chance to win this game.
2. Seattle Seahawks
I don't need to explain why the Seahawks
Let's take a look at Week 15:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIKINGS | Bears | 24.70% | 220 | 68.75% | 7.72 |
| PATRIOTS | Titans | 21.90% | 1250 | 92.59% | 1.62 |
| SEAHAWKS | Browns | 12.10% | 1500 | 93.75% | 0.76 |
| STEELERS | Broncos | 9.30% | 250 | 71.43% | 2.66 |
| Chiefs | RAVENS | 7.30% | 290 | 74.36% | 1.87 |
| Jets | COWBOYS | 5.60% | 165 | 62.26% | 2.11 |
| JAGUARS | Falcons | 4.50% | 145 | 59.18% | 1.84 |
| SAINTS | Lions | 2.40% | 150 | 60.00% | 0.96 |
| Panthers | GIANTS | 2.10% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.66 |
| Texans | COLTS | 1.80% | 100 | 50.00% | 0.90 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Pats and Seahawks are the obvious plays, but few have them available. After that, it's the Chiefs and Steelers, and don't forget one lesser owned team (not on this chart), the Bengals.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
The Patriots should destroy the Titans at home, especially now that Rob Gronkowski is back. Marcus Mariota's having a strong rookie season, but Bill Belichick usually throttles young QBs, and this is the best defense the Patriots have fielded in the last decade. I give the Patriots a 92 percent chance to win this game.
2. Seattle Seahawks
I don't need to explain why the Seahawks at home against the Browns is an easy call. I have the Patriots slightly ahead of them because I think Johnny Manziel will make some plays, and the Seahawks might be one-dimensional on offense without Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Rawls. But that's splitting hairs. I give the Seahawks a 91 percent chance to win this game.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are big favorites over the 10-3 Broncos, but that's as it should be given Denver's terrible offense. While the Broncos have arguably the best defense in the league, asking it to stop the Steelers on the road is a tall order. I give the Steelers a 72 percent chance to win this game.
4. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are on a roll, but they're going on the road, and the Ravens do a decent job of stopping the run. If the Chiefs oblige them with an on-the-ground slugfest, this game should be closer than it needs to. Still, I give the Chiefs a 70 percent chance of winning this game.
5. New York Jets
The Jets are only three-point favorites, but the Cowboys with Matt Cassel are a bad team, and they have virtually no home-field advantage. The Jets also match up especially well against Dallas with Darrelle Revis able to slow down Dez Bryant, and their elite run defense able to stop Dallas' ground game. I give the Jets a 68 percent chance to win this game.
6. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings played great in Arizona on Thursday and would have won the game but for a few turnovers. That said, the Bears are famililar with them, and Chicago has been much better on the road this year. I still expect the Vikings to win, but it should be close. I give the Vikings a 66 percent chance to win this game.
7. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are on the road and playing with backup AJ McCarron, but they face arguably the league's worst team. Still, the 49ers have played better at home, so this isn't likely to be a cakewalk. I give the Bengals a 65 percent chance to win this game.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars can't defend the pass, but the Falcons have fallen apart over the last two months and can't generate offense against anyone. Moreover, the Jaguars are still theoretically in the NFC South race. I give the Jaguars a 63 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Carolina Panthers - The Panthers are a much better team than the Giants, but I don't like the setup here as the Giants get up for strong opponents, and the Panthers are on the road.
New Orleans Saints - The Saints are typically better at home, but their defense is so poor, it's hard to trust them.
